Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Go Ahead Eagles Shots
Result
Settled, final score 5-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 64.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 74.6% for over 22.5 to 42.5% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Head to head on shots, AZ Alkmaar are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.2%, with a level count at 5.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
81.5%
69.3%
55.3%
58.9%
42.5%
28.3%
Shot handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.3% | 55.8% |
| -2.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| -0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| +0.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 54.3% | 45.7% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for AZ Alkmaar.
In-depth analysis
64.6%Over 24.5 shots69.3%AZ Alkmaar over 12.5 shots42.5%Go Ahead Eagles over 12.5 shots75.1%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, AZ Alkmaar over 12.5 shots sits at 69.3% and Go Ahead Eagles at 42.5%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 64.6% for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles.
Which team will have more shots in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Before kickoff, the model rated AZ Alkmaar to take more shots at 66.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.