Nice vs Lille prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Nice vs Lille: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Nice

LDDLD

Sun, 20 Sep 202616:15UK25°C · Clear
Lille

WLWDW

Model’s top convictions

73%

Draw or Lille

72%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LilleWin probability
45.6%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Lille72.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Over 1.5 goals71.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners59.6%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

Nice versus Lille on 20 September 2026 tilts towards Lille in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Nice W0 D4 L2, Lille W3 D2 L1. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Nice, 3 draws and 1 for Lille at 2.6 goals per match. Isak Jansson drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Lille win45.6%@ 2.19
Over 2.5 goals45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners38.6%@ 2.59
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.6%@ 1.83
Nice or draw54.4%@ 1.84
Both teams to score50.3%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
0-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.90
0-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.16

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nice

27.2%

Draw

27.2%

Lille

45.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.6%

Good chance

Over 9.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.4%

Low chance

Most cornersNice55.1%Lille34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.5%

Good chance

Over 26.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.1%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Nice13.0 taken12.8 faced
Lille11.8 taken13.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Nice (3 games)

4.7 / 7.7

Lille (3 games)

7.0 / 3.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.6%2.545.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

NiceLDDLD
LilleWLWDW

Last 5 meetings: Nice 1 · 3 draws · Lille 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-04-18Lille 0-0 Nice
2025-10-29Nice 2-0 Lille
2025-01-17Lille 2-1 Nice
2024-11-10Nice 2-2 Lille
2024-05-19Lille 2-2 Nice

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NiceLille
League position#15 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L0-2-12-1-0
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away0-2-02-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Isak JanssonNice · key player
To score4.1%

@ 24.39

1+ on target34.1%

@ 2.93

2+ shots14.5%

@ 6.90

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.14
Ethan MbappéLille · key player
To score12.6%

@ 7.94

1+ on target41.4%

@ 2.42

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 3.13SoT/90 1.67Goals/90 0.42
Sepe Elye WahiNice · in form
To score16.2%

@ 6.17

1+ on target47.6%

@ 2.10

2+ shots34.5%

@ 2.90

Shots/90 2.49SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.36
Olivier GiroudLille · in form
To score20.9%

@ 4.78

1+ on target41.1%

@ 2.43

2+ shots37.1%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 2.15SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.39
Nathan N'Goumou MinpolNice · in form
To score8.9%

@ 11.24

1+ on target40.9%

@ 2.44

2+ shots33.4%

@ 2.99

Shots/90 2.31SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.18
Gaetan PerrinLille · in form
To score19.5%

@ 5.13

1+ on target45.6%

@ 2.19

2+ shots38.3%

@ 2.61

Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.31

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nice win3.61
Draw3.60
Lille win2.24
Both teams to score1.99

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.21
Over 3.5 goals4.15
Nice most3.61
Lille most2.24

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.00
Over 10.5 corners2.61
Nice most1.81
Lille most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.06
Over 5.5 cards5.55
Nice most3.06
Lille most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.59
Over 8.5 SoT1.99
Over 9.5 SoT2.62
Nice most2.30
Lille most2.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.56
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.55
Over 28.5 shots3.55
Nice most1.74
Lille most2.76

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.87
Over 24.5 fouls2.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.0% Over 24.5 51.5% Over 26.5 39.2% Over 28.5 28.1%
Most: Nice 57.6% Most: Lille 36.3%
Nice Over 13.2 46.3% Lille Over 13.2 31.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.5% Over 7.5 62.7% Over 8.5 50.2% Over 9.5 38.2%
Most: Nice 43.6% Most: Lille 43.7%
Nice Over 4.2 43.7% Lille Over 4.2 43.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.7% Over 3.5 52.1% Over 4.5 32.7%
Most: Nice 32.6% Most: Lille 46.3%
Nice Over 1.8 51.1% Lille Over 1.8 61.0%

Nice: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Isak Jansson 2.26 1.41 0.14 34.1% 14.5% 4.1%
Sepe Elye Wahi 2.49 1.32 0.36 47.6% 34.5% 16.2%
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol 2.31 1.02 0.18 40.9% 33.4% 8.9%
Mohammed Amoura 2.71 0.9 0.35 51.6% 64.2% 24.6%
Sofiane Diop 2.04 0.76 0.37 36.1% 33.8% 19.6%

Lille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Ethan Mbappé 3.13 1.67 0.42 41.4% 26.4% 12.6%
Olivier Giroud 2.15 0.88 0.39 41.1% 37.1% 20.9%
Gaetan Perrin 1.9 0.87 0.31 45.6% 38.3% 19.5%
Dilane Bakwa 1.85 0.76 0.24 42.3% 38.7% 15.9%
Hákon Haraldsson 1.7 0.67 0.28 43.5% 42.5% 21.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nice clean sheet 24.1%
Lille clean sheet 34.5%
Nice win to nil 15.1%
Lille win to nil 25.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 27.7% draw 27.7% away 44.6%
double_chance
1X 55.4% 12 72.3% X2 72.3%
dnb
home 38.3% away 61.7%
btts
yes 50.2% no 49.8%
clean_sheet
home 24.1% away 34.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.2% away 25.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.8% home_by_2 7.6% home_by_3plus 3.3%
away_by_1 22.7% away_by_2 13.6% away_by_3plus 8.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.0% 0-1 11.2% 0-2 8.4%
0-3 4.0% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.2% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.2% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 6.7% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.7% 3-1 2.4% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.0% under_0.5 9.0% over_1.5 71.6%
under_1.5 28.4% over_2.5 45.4% under_2.5 54.7%
over_3.5 24.1% under_3.5 75.9% over_4.5 10.8%
under_4.5 89.2% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 65.4% under_0.5 34.6% over_1.5 28.9%
under_1.5 71.1% over_2.5 9.4% under_2.5 90.6%
team_away
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.1% over_1.5 41.6%
under_1.5 58.4% over_2.5 17.2% under_2.5 82.8%
most
home 27.7% draw 27.7% away 44.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.3% away_+2.5 96.8% home_-1.5 10.9%
away_+1.5 89.1% home_-0.5 27.7% away_+0.5 72.3%
home_+0.5 55.4% away_-0.5 44.6% home_+1.5 78.1%
away_-1.5 21.9% home_+2.5 91.7% away_-2.5 8.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.0% exact_1 19.4% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 19.2% draw 44.6% away 36.2%
total
over_0.5 65.1% under_0.5 34.9% over_1.5 28.4%
under_1.5 71.6% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
btts
yes 15.8% no 84.2%
total_exact
exact_0 34.9% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 6.8% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.5% draw 39.7% away 37.8%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 12.9% H/D 4.4% H/A 2.0%
D/H 10.0% D/D 17.7% D/A 16.8%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.9% A/A 29.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.6% under_7.5 26.4% over_8.5 62.1%
under_8.5 37.9% over_9.5 50.0% under_9.5 50.0%
over_10.5 38.3% under_10.5 61.7% over_11.5 28.0%
under_11.5 72.0% over_12.5 19.5% under_12.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.3% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 44.0% under_5.5 56.0%
team_away
over_3.5 60.4% under_3.5 39.6% over_4.5 43.2%
under_4.5 56.8% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
most
home 55.2% draw 10.6% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-1.5 44.3%
away_+1.5 55.7% home_-0.5 55.2% away_+0.5 44.8%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.7% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.0% under_22.5 36.0% over_24.5 51.5%
under_24.5 48.5% over_26.5 39.2% under_26.5 60.8%
over_28.5 28.1% under_28.5 71.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.6% under_10.5 28.4% over_12.5 54.8%
under_12.5 45.2% over_14.5 38.2% under_14.5 61.8%
team_away
over_10.5 57.7% under_10.5 42.3% over_12.5 39.5%
under_12.5 60.5% over_14.5 24.3% under_14.5 75.7%
most
home 57.6% draw 6.2% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.7% away_+4.5 67.3% home_-2.5 44.9%
away_+2.5 55.2% home_-0.5 57.6% away_+0.5 42.4%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+2.5 74.9%
away_-2.5 25.1% home_+4.5 83.9% away_-4.5 16.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.5% under_6.5 25.5% over_7.5 62.7%
under_7.5 37.3% over_8.5 50.2% under_8.5 49.8%
over_9.5 38.2% under_9.5 61.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.6% over_4.5 43.7%
under_4.5 56.3% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 43.8%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
most
home 43.6% draw 12.7% away 43.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.3% away_+2.5 78.7% home_-0.5 43.6%
away_+0.5 56.4% home_+0.5 56.3% away_-0.5 43.7%
home_+2.5 78.6% away_-2.5 21.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.7% under_2.5 27.3% over_3.5 52.1%
under_3.5 47.9% over_4.5 32.7% under_4.5 67.3%
over_5.5 18.0% under_5.5 82.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 24.6%
under_2.5 75.4%
team_away
over_1.5 61.0% under_1.5 39.0% over_2.5 33.9%
under_2.5 66.1%
most
home 32.6% draw 21.1% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 32.6%
away_+0.5 67.4% home_+0.5 53.7% away_-0.5 46.3%
home_+1.5 73.5% away_-1.5 26.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.7% under_20.5 32.3% over_22.5 53.4%
under_22.5 46.6% over_24.5 39.1% under_24.5 60.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.6% under_9.5 27.4% over_11.5 52.8%
under_11.5 47.2% over_13.5 33.7% under_13.5 66.4%
team_away
over_9.5 65.0% under_9.5 35.0% over_11.5 43.9%
under_11.5 56.1% over_13.5 25.7% under_13.5 74.3%
most
home 52.6% draw 7.3% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.3% away_+3.5 68.7% home_-0.5 52.6%
away_+0.5 47.4% home_+2.5 73.2% away_-2.5 26.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
home
yes 9.3% no 90.8%
away
yes 8.6% no 91.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nice predictions · Lille predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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