La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Sevilla Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 42.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 54.9% for over 22.5 to 20.7% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Between the two sides, Ath Bilbao are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.7%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.7% | 79.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.3%
54.6%
38.2%
43.7%
26.5%
14.3%
Shot handicap
| Ath Bilbao line | Ath Bilbao | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| -2.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| -0.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| +0.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Ath Bilbao.
In-depth analysis
42.1%Over 24.5 shots54.6%Ath Bilbao over 12.5 shots26.5%Sevilla over 12.5 shots57.7%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Ath Bilbao over 12.5 shots sits at 54.6% and Sevilla at 26.5%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 42.1% for Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla.
Which team will have more shots in Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ath Bilbao to take more shots at 66.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.