Valencia vs Celta: model prediction
La Liga
Over 1.5 goals
Valencia or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Valencia at 45.0%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.0% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 52.6% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Valencia at 45% when Valencia host Celta in the La Liga on 22 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Valencia than the market (41%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Valencia, 1 draws and 3 for Celta, averaging 4.2 goals a game. For shots markets, Largie Ramazani is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 28 degrees of heat. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Valencia against W3 D1 L2 for Celta. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
45.0%+4.2%
27.0%-2.6%
28.0%-1.6%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 · 1 draws · Celta 3 · 4.2 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 5.03
@ 1.98
@ 1.78
@ 7.04
@ 2.71
@ 3.77
@ 19.61
@ 3.24
@ 2.51
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.7% | Over 7.5 | 53.5% | Over 8.5 | 40.6% | Over 9.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 53.7% | Most: Celta | 33.2% | ||||
| Valencia Over 4.2 | 44.2% | Celta Over 4.2 | 29.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.8% | Over 3.5 | 60.6% | Over 4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 34.1% | Most: Celta | 46.4% | ||
| Valencia Over 1.8 | 57.5% | Celta Over 1.8 | 65.9% |
Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largie Ramazani | 3.82 | 1.43 | 0.45 | 50.6% | 56.2% | 19.9% |
| Dani Gómez | 2.41 | 1.11 | 0.37 | 36.9% | 26.5% | 14.2% |
| Rafa Mir | 3.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 30.9% | 39.8% | 5.1% |
| Umar Sadiq | 2.43 | 0.9 | 0.48 | 37.7% | 36.5% | 22.3% |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 2.01 | 0.78 | 0.17 | 37.2% | 33.7% | 9.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Valencia clean sheet | 32.0% |
|---|---|
| Celta clean sheet | 23.3% |
| Valencia win to nil | 23.9% |
| Celta win to nil | 15.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 43.8% | draw | 27.3% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.0% | 12 | 72.8% | X2 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 60.2% | away | 39.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.6% | no | 47.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.1% | away | 23.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.0% | away | 15.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.1% | home_by_2 | 13.3% | home_by_3plus | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.2% | away_by_2 | 8.1% | away_by_3plus | 3.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 7.9% | 0-2 | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 1-1 | 13.0% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.9% | 3-1 | 4.4% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 4-1 | 1.6% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.3% | over_2.5 | 48.0% | under_2.5 | 52.0% |
| over_3.5 | 26.3% | under_3.5 | 73.7% | over_4.5 | 12.2% |
| under_4.5 | 87.8% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.6% | under_0.5 | 23.4% | over_1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.3% | over_2.5 | 18.0% | under_2.5 | 82.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.1% | over_1.5 | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.5% | over_2.5 | 10.8% | under_2.5 | 89.2% |
most
| home | 43.8% | draw | 27.3% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.4% | away_+2.5 | 91.6% | home_-1.5 | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.3% | home_-0.5 | 43.8% | away_+0.5 | 56.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% | home_+1.5 | 88.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.8% | home_+2.5 | 96.3% | away_-2.5 | 3.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.2% | exact_2 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.9% | draw | 48.0% | away | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 60.9% | under_0.5 | 39.1% | over_1.5 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.8% | over_2.5 | 7.0% | under_2.5 | 93.1% |
btts
| yes | 13.7% | no | 86.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 39.1% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 17.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.4% | exact_4plus | 1.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.4% | draw | 33.2% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.9% | under_0.5 | 17.1% | over_1.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.3% | over_2.5 | 26.0% | under_2.5 | 74.0% |
btts
| yes | 34.3% | no | 65.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.1% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.5% | D/D | 15.9% | D/A | 14.6% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 14.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.8% | under_7.5 | 29.2% | over_8.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.2% | over_9.5 | 46.5% | under_9.5 | 53.5% |
| over_10.5 | 34.9% | under_10.5 | 65.1% | over_11.5 | 24.9% |
| under_11.5 | 75.1% | over_12.5 | 17.0% | under_12.5 | 83.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.3% | under_3.5 | 24.7% | over_4.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.6% | over_5.5 | 45.2% | under_5.5 | 54.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.2% | over_5.5 | 22.9% | under_5.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 60.1% | draw | 10.4% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.2% | away_+3.5 | 71.8% | home_-1.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.0% | home_-0.5 | 60.1% | away_+0.5 | 39.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.5% | away_-0.5 | 29.5% | home_+1.5 | 79.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.6% | home_+3.5 | 91.6% | away_-3.5 | 8.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.8% | under_22.5 | 44.2% | over_24.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.0% | over_26.5 | 31.2% | under_26.5 | 68.8% |
| over_28.5 | 21.3% | under_28.5 | 78.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.1% | under_10.5 | 27.9% | over_12.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.3% | over_14.5 | 39.3% | under_14.5 | 60.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 43.8% | under_10.5 | 56.3% | over_12.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 73.5% | over_14.5 | 14.3% | under_14.5 | 85.7% |
most
| home | 67.4% | draw | 5.7% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.8% | away_+4.5 | 58.2% | home_-2.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.2% | home_-0.5 | 67.4% | away_+0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.1% | away_-0.5 | 26.9% | home_+2.5 | 82.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.2% | home_+4.5 | 89.9% | away_-4.5 | 10.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.7% | under_6.5 | 33.3% | over_7.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.5% | over_8.5 | 40.6% | under_8.5 | 59.4% |
| over_9.5 | 29.1% | under_9.5 | 70.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.0% | under_3.5 | 38.0% | over_4.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.8% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.5% | under_3.5 | 52.5% | over_4.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.3% | over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
most
| home | 53.7% | draw | 13.1% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.0% | away_+2.5 | 72.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.3% | home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.7% | away_-2.5 | 13.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.8% | under_2.5 | 21.2% | over_3.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 41.6% | under_4.5 | 58.4% |
| over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.5% | under_1.5 | 42.5% | over_2.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.9% | under_1.5 | 34.1% | over_2.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.2% |
most
| home | 34.1% | draw | 19.6% | away | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.3% | away_+1.5 | 81.7% | home_-0.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.9% | home_+0.5 | 53.6% | away_-0.5 | 46.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.1% | away_-1.5 | 27.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 74.3% | under_20.5 | 25.7% | over_22.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 38.9% | over_24.5 | 47.1% | under_24.5 | 52.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 72.7% | under_9.5 | 27.3% | over_11.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.0% | over_13.5 | 33.9% | under_13.5 | 66.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.4% | under_9.5 | 25.7% | over_11.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.9% | over_13.5 | 35.9% | under_13.5 | 64.1% |
most
| home | 44.9% | draw | 7.1% | away | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.4% | away_+3.5 | 74.6% | home_-0.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.1% | home_+2.5 | 65.9% | away_-2.5 | 34.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.2% | no | 84.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.7% | no | 90.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Valencia predictions · Celta predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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