Süper Lig
Amedspor vs 
Besiktas Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Draw or Away at 80.0%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Besiktas are favoured at 56.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Amedspor by 1 | 12.7% |
| Amedspor by 2 | 5.3% |
| Amedspor by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Besiktas by 1 | 23.5% |
| Besiktas by 2 | 17.5% |
| Besiktas by 3+ | 15.4% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
Goal handicap
| Amedspor line | Amedspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| +0.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| +1.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| +2.5 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Amedspor goals scored per game0.8Amedspor goals conceded per game2.4Besiktas goals scored per game0.8Besiktas goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is draw or Besiktas on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
54.4%Both Teams to Score54.8%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Besiktas are favoured at 56.4%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Amedspor vs Besiktas?
Draw or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Amedspor vs Besiktas at 80.0%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Amedspor vs Besiktas?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Amedspor at 26.1% and Besiktas at 73.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
