Almeria 3-0 Leganes corners: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Almeria3-0Leganes
We called Under 9.5 at 55.8% and it missed (11 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 9.5 corners44.2%
Corners
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Almeria.
Total corners
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.7% | 43.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Who wins the corner count
AlmeriaLeganesTeam corners lines
Almeria
Leganes
Corner handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Almeria's; Leganes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Almeria line | Almeria | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| -1.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| -0.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| +0.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
Corner trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Almeria at home and Leganes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.9% for over 7.5 to 15.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.2%. On the corner count, Almeria are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.3%, with a level count at 10.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Almeria over 4.5 corners sits at 57.2% and Leganes at 37.7%. This season Almeria have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Leganes 3.0.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many corners in Almeria vs Leganes?
Which team will win the corner count in Almeria vs Leganes?
How many corners do Almeria and Leganes average this season?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
