La Liga
Alaves vs 
Villarreal Corners
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 48.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.1% for over 7.5 to 18.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. On the corner count, Alaves are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 59.2%, with a level count at 10.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.1%
61.5%
46.3%
57.0%
39.5%
25.2%
Corner handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| -1.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| -0.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| +0.5 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Alaves.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Alaves over 4.5 corners sits at 61.5% and Villarreal at 39.5%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 49.3% for Alaves vs Villarreal.
Which team will win the corner count in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated Alaves to win the corner count at 59.2%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.