La Liga
Alaves vs 
Villarreal Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 66.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.1% for over 2.5 to 31.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.5%. Head to head on cards, Villarreal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 18.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.7% | 68.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.0%
38.8%
67.4%
41.7%
Card handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| -0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.9% | 28.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.0% | 41.0% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alaves vs Villarreal. The model leans toward Villarreal for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.8%Over 3.5 cards18.5%Any red card65.0%Alaves over 1.5 cards67.4%Villarreal over 1.5 cards71.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Alaves over 1.5 cards sits at 65.0% and Villarreal at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.5% (Alaves 10.1%, Villarreal 9.3%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.8% for Alaves vs Villarreal.
Will there be a red card in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated Villarreal to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.