La Liga
Alaves vs 
Villarreal Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 54.1% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 54.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Alaves have averaged 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, Villarreal 2.2 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 54.1% for over 2.5 and 78.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Alaves have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Villarreal in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.0% | 93.0% |
Team goal lines
77.1%
43.3%
18.5%
74.4%
39.8%
16.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.2% | 85.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
58.0%Both Teams to Score54.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 54.1% for three or more goals and 78.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Alaves favoured at 39.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Alaves to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Villarreal 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Alaves vs Villarreal?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 54.1%. The match finished with 1 goals (1-0), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.