Result

Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Expected Goals (xG)

1.82Alaves xG created/game

0.92Alaves xG conceded/game

1.62Villarreal xG created/game

1.45Villarreal xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Alaves have created 1.82 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Villarreal have created 1.62 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

39.6%Favoured: Alaves

58.0%Both Teams to Score

54.1%Over 2.5 goals

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.

Match outlook

The model leans Alaves to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Villarreal 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)

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