Super League Greece
AEK vs 
Iraklis Shots
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 39.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 51.2% for over 22.5 to 20.3% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. On the shot count, AEK are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.4%, with a level count at 5.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.3% | 79.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.3%
53.1%
38.4%
39.5%
24.4%
13.9%
Shot handicap
| AEK line | AEK | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| -2.5 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| -0.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| +0.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.2% | 67.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges AEK.
In-depth analysis
39.6%Over 24.5 shots53.1%AEK over 12.5 shots24.4%Iraklis over 12.5 shots54.2%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, AEK over 12.5 shots sits at 53.1% and Iraklis at 24.4%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in AEK vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 39.6% for AEK vs Iraklis.
Which team will have more shots in AEK vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated AEK to take more shots at 67.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.