AEK vs Iraklis: model prediction
Super League Greece
AEK or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Not both teams to score
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was AEK at 72.0%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 51.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called No at 59.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Few Super League Greece fixtures are this lopsided in the data: AEK carry a 72% win probability against Iraklis on 22 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate AEK higher (82%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 41%. Fatigue may matter, with AEK 3304 days shorter on recovery than Iraklis. Iraklis are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: AEK W3 D3 L0, Iraklis W4 D1 L1. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 1 wins for AEK, 3 draws and 0 for Iraklis, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
72.0%-9.6%
18.9%+6.0%
9.1%+3.6%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Corners markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: AEK 1 · 3 draws · Iraklis 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.1% | Over 7.5 | 54.2% | Over 8.5 | 42.6% | Over 9.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: AEK | 61.1% | Most: Iraklis | 27.6% | ||||
| AEK Over 4.2 | 50.1% | Iraklis Over 4.2 | 25.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 89.8% | Over 3.5 | 77.4% | Over 4.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: AEK | 31.9% | Most: Iraklis | 50.8% | ||
| AEK Over 1.8 | 68.4% | Iraklis Over 1.8 | 79.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| AEK clean sheet | 52.9% |
|---|---|
| Iraklis clean sheet | 12.0% |
| AEK win to nil | 46.0% |
| Iraklis win to nil | 5.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 72.0% | draw | 18.9% | away | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 90.9% | 12 | 81.1% | X2 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 88.8% | away | 11.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 40.9% | no | 59.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 54.0% | away | 12.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 47.2% | away | 5.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.4% | home_by_2 | 22.0% | home_by_3plus | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 6.8% | away_by_2 | 1.9% | away_by_3plus | 0.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 0-1 | 3.6% | 0-2 | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.3% | 0-4 | 0.0% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 1-1 | 8.9% | 1-2 | 2.6% |
| 1-3 | 0.5% | 1-4 | 0.1% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 14.6% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 2.8% |
| 2-3 | 0.6% | 2-4 | 0.1% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.3% | 3-1 | 6.3% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 5.5% | 4-1 | 3.4% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 2.3% | 5-1 | 1.4% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 14.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.1% | under_0.5 | 6.9% | over_1.5 | 76.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.7% | over_2.5 | 51.7% | under_2.5 | 48.4% |
| over_3.5 | 29.5% | under_3.5 | 70.5% | over_4.5 | 14.3% |
| under_4.5 | 85.7% | over_5.5 | 6.0% | under_5.5 | 94.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 88.0% | under_0.5 | 12.0% | over_1.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 37.3% | over_2.5 | 35.7% | under_2.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 46.0% | under_0.5 | 54.0% | over_1.5 | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 87.3% | over_2.5 | 2.5% | under_2.5 | 97.5% |
most
| home | 72.0% | draw | 18.9% | away | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.6% | away_+2.5 | 74.4% | home_-1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.4% | home_-0.5 | 72.0% | away_+0.5 | 28.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 90.9% | away_-0.5 | 9.1% | home_+1.5 | 97.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 2.3% | home_+2.5 | 99.6% | away_-2.5 | 0.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.9% | exact_1 | 16.8% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.2% | exact_5 | 8.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.8% | exact_7plus | 2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.5% | draw | 45.2% | away | 15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.3% | under_0.5 | 36.7% | over_1.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.5% | over_2.5 | 8.1% | under_2.5 | 91.9% |
btts
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 36.7% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.2% | exact_4plus | 1.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 54.8% | draw | 32.1% | away | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.0% | under_0.5 | 21.1% | over_1.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.8% | over_2.5 | 20.6% | under_2.5 | 79.4% |
btts
| yes | 22.9% | no | 77.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 35.6% | H/D | 3.2% | H/A | 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 24.8% | D/D | 14.5% | D/A | 5.9% |
| A/H | 3.4% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 7.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 60.5% | under_7.5 | 39.5% | over_8.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 52.5% | over_9.5 | 35.3% | under_9.5 | 64.7% |
| over_10.5 | 24.8% | under_10.5 | 75.2% | over_11.5 | 16.5% |
| under_11.5 | 83.5% | over_12.5 | 10.5% | under_12.5 | 89.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.5% | under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.4% | over_5.5 | 38.6% | under_5.5 | 61.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.5% | under_3.5 | 54.5% | over_4.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.2% | over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
most
| home | 60.7% | draw | 10.6% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.8% | away_+3.5 | 72.2% | home_-1.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.7% | away_+0.5 | 39.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.3% | away_-0.5 | 28.7% | home_+1.5 | 80.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.6% | home_+3.5 | 92.4% | away_-3.5 | 7.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 51.2% | under_22.5 | 48.9% | over_24.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.4% | over_26.5 | 29.1% | under_26.5 | 70.9% |
| over_28.5 | 20.3% | under_28.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.3% | under_10.5 | 31.7% | over_12.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.9% | over_14.5 | 38.4% | under_14.5 | 61.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 39.5% | under_10.5 | 60.5% | over_12.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 75.6% | over_14.5 | 13.9% | under_14.5 | 86.2% |
most
| home | 67.4% | draw | 5.3% | away | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.7% | away_+4.5 | 56.3% | home_-2.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.2% | home_-0.5 | 67.4% | away_+0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.7% | away_-0.5 | 27.3% | home_+2.5 | 81.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.2% | home_+4.5 | 88.8% | away_-4.5 | 11.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.1% | under_6.5 | 33.9% | over_7.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.8% | over_8.5 | 42.6% | under_8.5 | 57.4% |
| over_9.5 | 32.2% | under_9.5 | 67.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.6% | under_3.5 | 34.4% | over_4.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.9% | over_5.5 | 36.0% | under_5.5 | 64.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 41.4% | under_3.5 | 58.6% | over_4.5 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.2% | over_5.5 | 14.9% | under_5.5 | 85.1% |
most
| home | 61.1% | draw | 11.3% | away | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 37.1% | away_+2.5 | 62.9% | home_-0.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.9% | home_+0.5 | 72.5% | away_-0.5 | 27.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.8% | away_-2.5 | 11.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 89.8% | under_2.5 | 10.2% | over_3.5 | 77.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 22.6% | over_4.5 | 60.9% | under_4.5 | 39.1% |
| over_5.5 | 43.5% | under_5.5 | 56.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.4% | under_1.5 | 31.6% | over_2.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 79.0% | under_1.5 | 21.0% | over_2.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 44.0% |
most
| home | 31.9% | draw | 17.3% | away | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.9% | away_+1.5 | 82.1% | home_-0.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.1% | home_+0.5 | 49.2% | away_-0.5 | 50.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 66.6% | away_-1.5 | 33.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 91.1% | under_20.5 | 8.9% | over_22.5 | 84.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 15.9% | over_24.5 | 74.7% | under_24.5 | 25.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 86.5% | under_9.5 | 13.5% | over_11.5 | 72.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 27.2% | over_13.5 | 55.8% | under_13.5 | 44.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.7% | under_9.5 | 13.3% | over_11.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 26.8% | over_13.5 | 56.3% | under_13.5 | 43.7% |
most
| home | 46.5% | draw | 6.3% | away | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.6% | away_+3.5 | 71.4% | home_-0.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.5% | home_+2.5 | 65.1% | away_-2.5 | 34.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.3% | no | 80.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.9% | no | 87.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: AEK predictions · Iraklis predictions · Super League Greece
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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