Super League Greece
AEK vs 
Iraklis Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 77.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 89.8% for over 2.5 to 43.5% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.5%. On the card count, Iraklis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.8%, with a level count at 17.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.4%
42.1%
79.0%
56.0%
Card handicap
| AEK line | AEK | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| -0.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| +0.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| +1.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 84.2% | 15.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 74.7% | 25.3% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AEK vs Iraklis. It tips Iraklis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
77.4%Over 3.5 cards19.3%Any red card68.4%AEK over 1.5 cards79.0%Iraklis over 1.5 cards84.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, AEK over 1.5 cards sits at 68.4% and Iraklis at 79.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.3% (AEK 7.4%, Iraklis 12.9%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in AEK vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 77.4% for AEK vs Iraklis.
Will there be a red card in AEK vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AEK vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Iraklis to pick up more cards at 50.8%, with a level count at 17.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.