Guimaraes vs Nacional: model prediction
Primeira LigaOver 1.5 goals
Guimaraes or draw
Draw or Nacional
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Guimaraes at 40.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.1% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"40% on Guimaraes is a measurement, not a promise." The probabilities barely separate Guimaraes and Nacional on 23 August 2026: Guimaraes nose ahead at 40%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Guimaraes at 57%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. The recent series reads 2 wins for Guimaraes, 1 draws and 2 for Nacional over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. The run in: Guimaraes arrive W1 D0 L5, Nacional W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
40.4%-16.7%
27.8%+2.5%
31.7%+14.1%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guimaraes 2 · 1 draws · Nacional 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Guimaraes
NacionalBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.2% | Over 7.5 | 57.6% | Over 8.5 | 44.9% | Over 9.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Guimaraes | 50.1% | Most: Nacional | 37.0% | ||||
| Guimaraes Over 4.2 | 44.6% | Nacional Over 4.2 | 35.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 89.0% | Over 3.5 | 75.9% | Over 4.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Guimaraes | 33.5% | Most: Nacional | 48.8% | ||
| Guimaraes Over 1.8 | 68.3% | Nacional Over 1.8 | 77.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Guimaraes clean sheet | 30.6% |
|---|---|
| Nacional clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Guimaraes win to nil | 22.1% |
| Nacional win to nil | 17.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.4% | draw | 27.8% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 68.3% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 56.0% | away | 44.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.3% | no | 47.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.7% | away | 25.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 22.2% | away | 17.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.3% | home_by_2 | 12.1% | home_by_3plus | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.4% | away_by_2 | 9.1% | away_by_3plus | 4.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 0-1 | 8.6% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.2% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.9% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 3-1 | 3.9% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.5% | under_0.5 | 8.5% | over_1.5 | 72.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.2% | over_2.5 | 46.9% | under_2.5 | 53.1% |
| over_3.5 | 25.3% | under_3.5 | 74.7% | over_4.5 | 11.6% |
| under_4.5 | 88.4% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.5% | under_0.5 | 25.5% | over_1.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.4% | over_2.5 | 15.9% | under_2.5 | 84.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.3% | under_0.5 | 30.7% | over_1.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.9% | over_2.5 | 11.7% | under_2.5 | 88.3% |
most
| home | 40.4% | draw | 27.8% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.0% | away_+2.5 | 93.0% | home_-1.5 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 40.4% | away_+0.5 | 59.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+1.5 | 86.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.4% | home_+2.5 | 95.7% | away_-2.5 | 4.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.5% | exact_1 | 18.7% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.7% | exact_5 | 7.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.8% | draw | 45.0% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.5% | under_0.5 | 34.5% | over_1.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.2% | over_2.5 | 9.2% | under_2.5 | 90.8% |
btts
| yes | 17.0% | no | 83.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.5% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.9% | exact_4plus | 2.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.5% | draw | 38.5% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.9% | under_0.5 | 25.1% | over_1.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.8% | over_2.5 | 16.2% | under_2.5 | 83.8% |
btts
| yes | 24.7% | no | 75.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.5% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.5% | D/D | 17.3% | D/A | 12.2% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 18.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.2% | under_7.5 | 29.8% | over_8.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.0% | over_9.5 | 47.5% | under_9.5 | 52.5% |
| over_10.5 | 36.7% | under_10.5 | 63.3% | over_11.5 | 27.2% |
| under_11.5 | 72.8% | over_12.5 | 19.4% | under_12.5 | 80.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.0% | under_3.5 | 30.0% | over_4.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.8% | over_5.5 | 41.0% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.0% | under_3.5 | 41.0% | over_4.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.1% | over_5.5 | 29.2% | under_5.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 52.9% | draw | 10.1% | away | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.4% | away_+3.5 | 75.6% | home_-1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 52.9% | away_+0.5 | 47.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.1% | away_-0.5 | 36.9% | home_+1.5 | 72.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.7% | home_+3.5 | 86.6% | away_-3.5 | 13.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.6% | under_22.5 | 41.4% | over_24.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.4% | over_26.5 | 35.2% | under_26.5 | 64.9% |
| over_28.5 | 25.1% | under_28.5 | 74.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.4% | under_10.5 | 30.6% | over_12.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.6% | over_14.5 | 37.9% | under_14.5 | 62.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.9% | under_10.5 | 49.1% | over_12.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.1% | over_14.5 | 20.5% | under_14.5 | 79.5% |
most
| home | 60.7% | draw | 5.8% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.5% | away_+4.5 | 63.5% | home_-2.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.5% | home_-0.5 | 60.7% | away_+0.5 | 39.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% | home_+2.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 85.1% | away_-4.5 | 14.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.2% | under_6.5 | 29.8% | over_7.5 | 57.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.4% | over_8.5 | 44.9% | under_8.5 | 55.1% |
| over_9.5 | 33.1% | under_9.5 | 66.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.8% | over_4.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.4% | over_5.5 | 29.2% | under_5.5 | 70.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.2% | under_3.5 | 46.8% | over_4.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.7% | over_5.5 | 21.2% | under_5.5 | 78.8% |
most
| home | 50.1% | draw | 12.9% | away | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.8% | away_+2.5 | 74.2% | home_-0.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.9% | home_+0.5 | 63.0% | away_-0.5 | 37.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.8% | away_-2.5 | 16.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.9% | under_2.5 | 11.1% | over_3.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.1% | over_4.5 | 59.0% | under_4.5 | 41.0% |
| over_5.5 | 41.5% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.3% | under_1.5 | 31.7% | over_2.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 77.1% | under_1.5 | 22.9% | over_2.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 46.6% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 17.7% | away | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.9% | away_+1.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.5% | home_+0.5 | 51.2% | away_-0.5 | 48.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.5% | away_-1.5 | 31.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.3% | under_20.5 | 12.8% | over_22.5 | 78.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.4% | over_24.5 | 67.6% | under_24.5 | 32.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.0% | under_9.5 | 18.0% | over_11.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.6% | over_13.5 | 48.5% | under_13.5 | 51.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.1% | under_9.5 | 15.9% | over_11.5 | 69.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.7% | over_13.5 | 51.9% | under_13.5 | 48.1% |
most
| home | 44.4% | draw | 6.4% | away | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-0.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.6% | home_+2.5 | 63.3% | away_-2.5 | 36.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.5% | no | 81.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.8% | no | 91.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Guimaraes predictions · Nacional predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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