Real Madrid vs Sociedad: model prediction
La LigaReal Madrid or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Real Madrid at 72.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 63.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 55.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"73% on Real Madrid is a measurement, not a promise." Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Real Madrid carry a 73% win probability against Sociedad on 26 August 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Real Madrid at 75%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. For shots markets, Kylian Mbappe-Lottin is the obvious watch at 2.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Real Madrid, 0 draws and 0 for Sociedad, averaging 2.6 goals a game. The run in: Real Madrid arrive W5 D0 L1, Sociedad W0 D3 L3. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.028 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
72.8%-1.8%
17.2%+2.8%
10.0%-1.0%
value_gap +0.028 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 5 · 0 draws · Sociedad 0 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Real Madrid
SociedadPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 1.69
@ 1.12
@ 1.05
@ 2.91
@ 1.49
@ 1.31
@ 8.40
@ 2.17
@ 2.02
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 80.2% | Over 7.5 | 69.7% | Over 8.5 | 57.9% | Over 9.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Real Madrid | 71.7% | Most: Sociedad | 18.7% | ||||
| Real Madrid Over 4.2 | 67.5% | Sociedad Over 4.2 | 27.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 82.2% | Over 3.5 | 65.4% | Over 4.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Real Madrid | 30.0% | Most: Sociedad | 51.6% | ||
| Real Madrid Over 1.8 | 57.5% | Sociedad Over 1.8 | 71.8% |
Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 5 | 2.36 | 0.94 | 89.4% | 95.0% | 59.0% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 3.23 | 1.29 | 0.49 | 67.0% | 76.5% | 34.4% |
| Rodrygo | 2.88 | 1.07 | 0.22 | 46.0% | 49.4% | 11.9% |
| Jude Bellingham | 2.34 | 1.01 | 0.31 | 56.9% | 58.1% | 22.8% |
| Gonzalo García | 2.04 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 26.2% | 14.4% | 16.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 38.2% |
|---|---|
| Sociedad clean sheet | 9.9% |
| Real Madrid win to nil | 33.9% |
| Sociedad win to nil | 5.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 67.9% | draw | 18.9% | away | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 86.8% | 12 | 81.1% | X2 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 83.7% | away | 16.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.0% | no | 45.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.4% | away | 9.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 35.1% | away | 5.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.4% | home_by_2 | 20.2% | home_by_3plus | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 8.8% | away_by_2 | 3.3% | away_by_3plus | 1.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.3% | 0-1 | 3.2% | 0-2 | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 1-1 | 8.8% | 1-2 | 3.9% |
| 1-3 | 1.2% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | 3-1 | 7.5% | 3-2 | 3.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 4.7% | 4-1 | 4.3% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 2.2% | 5-1 | 2.0% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 3.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.7% | under_0.5 | 4.3% | over_1.5 | 83.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.1% | over_2.5 | 63.0% | under_2.5 | 37.0% |
| over_3.5 | 40.8% | under_3.5 | 59.2% | over_4.5 | 22.8% |
| under_4.5 | 77.2% | over_5.5 | 11.1% | under_5.5 | 88.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.1% | even | 50.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 90.1% | under_0.5 | 9.9% | over_1.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.8% | over_2.5 | 40.8% | under_2.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.6% | under_0.5 | 39.4% | over_1.5 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.1% | over_2.5 | 6.8% | under_2.5 | 93.2% |
most
| home | 67.9% | draw | 18.9% | away | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.3% | away_+2.5 | 74.8% | home_-1.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.5% | home_-0.5 | 67.9% | away_+0.5 | 32.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 86.8% | away_-0.5 | 13.2% | home_+1.5 | 95.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.4% | home_+2.5 | 98.9% | away_-2.5 | 1.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.3% | exact_1 | 11.8% | exact_2 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 18.0% | exact_5 | 11.7% |
| exact_6 | 6.3% | exact_7plus | 4.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.4% | draw | 33.9% | away | 14.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.5% | over_1.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.0% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
btts
| yes | 22.8% | no | 77.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.5% | exact_1 | 33.6% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.5% | exact_4plus | 6.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 58.4% | draw | 28.3% | away | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 83.9% | under_0.5 | 16.1% | over_1.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.5% | over_2.5 | 27.6% | under_2.5 | 72.4% |
btts
| yes | 28.2% | no | 71.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 47.0% | H/D | 3.5% | H/A | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.8% | D/D | 9.6% | D/A | 4.5% |
| A/H | 3.7% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 7.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.9% | under_7.5 | 27.1% | over_8.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.8% | over_9.5 | 49.1% | under_9.5 | 50.9% |
| over_10.5 | 37.4% | under_10.5 | 62.6% | over_11.5 | 27.1% |
| under_11.5 | 72.9% | over_12.5 | 18.8% | under_12.5 | 81.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 23.9% | over_4.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.5% | over_5.5 | 46.4% | under_5.5 | 53.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.6% | under_3.5 | 43.4% | over_4.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.8% | over_5.5 | 24.9% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
most
| home | 59.4% | draw | 10.3% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.9% | away_+3.5 | 72.1% | home_-1.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 59.4% | away_+0.5 | 40.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% | home_+1.5 | 78.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.4% | home_+3.5 | 91.0% | away_-3.5 | 9.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.9% | under_22.5 | 34.1% | over_24.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.4% | over_26.5 | 41.3% | under_26.5 | 58.8% |
| over_28.5 | 29.9% | under_28.5 | 70.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.3% | under_10.5 | 19.7% | over_12.5 | 66.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 33.9% | over_14.5 | 50.3% | under_14.5 | 49.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.2% | under_10.5 | 52.8% | over_12.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.4% | over_14.5 | 16.6% | under_14.5 | 83.4% |
most
| home | 72.1% | draw | 5.1% | away | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 48.1% | away_+4.5 | 51.9% | home_-2.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 39.4% | home_-0.5 | 72.1% | away_+0.5 | 27.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.2% | away_-0.5 | 22.8% | home_+2.5 | 85.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 14.4% | home_+4.5 | 91.6% | away_-4.5 | 8.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 80.2% | under_6.5 | 19.8% | over_7.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 57.9% | under_8.5 | 42.1% |
| over_9.5 | 45.8% | under_9.5 | 54.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.1% | under_3.5 | 18.9% | over_4.5 | 67.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.5% | over_5.5 | 52.4% | under_5.5 | 47.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.3% | under_3.5 | 54.8% | over_4.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.3% | over_5.5 | 15.2% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
most
| home | 71.7% | draw | 9.6% | away | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 48.0% | away_+2.5 | 52.0% | home_-0.5 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 28.3% | home_+0.5 | 81.3% | away_-0.5 | 18.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 93.6% | away_-2.5 | 6.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 82.2% | under_2.5 | 17.8% | over_3.5 | 65.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 34.6% | over_4.5 | 46.8% | under_4.5 | 53.2% |
| over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.6% | under_1.5 | 42.4% | over_2.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.8% | under_1.5 | 28.2% | over_2.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.1% |
most
| home | 30.0% | draw | 18.5% | away | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.7% | away_+1.5 | 84.3% | home_-0.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.1% | home_+0.5 | 48.4% | away_-0.5 | 51.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 67.0% | away_-1.5 | 33.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 78.6% | under_20.5 | 21.4% | over_22.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 33.6% | over_24.5 | 52.7% | under_24.5 | 47.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 61.6% | under_9.5 | 38.4% | over_11.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.7% | over_13.5 | 22.7% | under_13.5 | 77.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.8% | under_9.5 | 13.2% | over_11.5 | 72.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 27.2% | over_13.5 | 55.1% | under_13.5 | 44.9% |
most
| home | 24.4% | draw | 5.9% | away | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.0% | away_+3.5 | 89.0% | home_-0.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 75.6% | home_+2.5 | 43.5% | away_-2.5 | 56.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 24.5% | no | 75.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 12.9% | no | 87.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.3% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Real Madrid predictions · Sociedad predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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