Valencia vs Betis: model prediction
La LigaOver 1.5 goals
Valencia or draw
Draw or Betis
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Valencia at 40.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.5% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Valencia or Betis? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Expect a tight one: the model splits Valencia and Betis almost evenly, Valencia marginally on top at 41%. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. One eye on the skies, with 28 degrees of heat in the forecast. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Valencia against W4 D1 L1 for Betis. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Valencia, 2 draws and 2 for Betis at 3.2 goals per match. For shots markets, Largie Ramazani is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
40.8%
27.8%
31.4%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 · 2 draws · Betis 2 · 3.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Valencia
BetisPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 5.03
@ 1.98
@ 1.78
@ 17.86
@ 3.10
@ 2.60
@ 6.45
@ 2.54
@ 3.40
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.8% | Over 7.5 | 56.9% | Over 8.5 | 44.0% | Over 9.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 52.0% | Most: Betis | 35.0% | ||||
| Valencia Over 4.2 | 45.4% | Betis Over 4.2 | 33.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.2% | Over 3.5 | 62.5% | Over 4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Valencia | 35.4% | Most: Betis | 45.1% | ||
| Valencia Over 1.8 | 59.8% | Betis Over 1.8 | 66.3% |
Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largie Ramazani | 3.82 | 1.43 | 0.45 | 50.6% | 56.2% | 19.9% |
| Rafa Mir | 3.96 | 1.16 | 0.17 | 32.3% | 38.5% | 5.6% |
| Dani Gómez | 2.45 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 39.3% | 29.4% | 15.5% |
| Umar Sadiq | 2.43 | 0.9 | 0.48 | 37.7% | 36.5% | 22.3% |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 2.01 | 0.78 | 0.17 | 37.2% | 33.7% | 9.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Valencia clean sheet | 29.8% |
|---|---|
| Betis clean sheet | 26.0% |
| Valencia win to nil | 21.4% |
| Betis win to nil | 17.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.8% | away | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 67.1% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 54.4% | away | 45.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.5% | no | 47.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.8% | away | 26.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.4% | away | 17.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.0% | home_by_2 | 11.7% | home_by_3plus | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.8% | away_by_2 | 9.5% | away_by_3plus | 4.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 0-1 | 8.8% | 0-2 | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 7.6% |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 2-1 | 8.5% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 3.8% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.6% | under_0.5 | 8.4% | over_1.5 | 73.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.0% | over_2.5 | 47.0% | under_2.5 | 53.0% |
| over_3.5 | 25.5% | under_3.5 | 74.6% | over_4.5 | 11.7% |
| under_4.5 | 88.4% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.1% | over_1.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.1% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.2% | under_0.5 | 29.8% | over_1.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.9% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
most
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.8% | away | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.6% | away_+2.5 | 93.4% | home_-1.5 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.3% | away_+0.5 | 60.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.1% | away_-0.5 | 32.9% | home_+1.5 | 85.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.1% | home_+2.5 | 95.4% | away_-2.5 | 4.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.4% | exact_1 | 18.6% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.8% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.6% | draw | 45.8% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.2% | under_0.5 | 35.8% | over_1.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.6% | over_2.5 | 8.5% | under_2.5 | 91.5% |
btts
| yes | 15.9% | no | 84.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.8% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.5% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 36.3% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.3% | under_0.5 | 21.7% | over_1.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.9% | over_2.5 | 19.8% | under_2.5 | 80.2% |
btts
| yes | 28.5% | no | 71.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.3% | H/D | 5.7% | H/A | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.9% | D/D | 16.6% | D/A | 15.2% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 17.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.3% | under_7.5 | 27.7% | over_8.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.4% | over_9.5 | 48.4% | under_9.5 | 51.6% |
| over_10.5 | 36.7% | under_10.5 | 63.3% | over_11.5 | 26.5% |
| under_11.5 | 73.5% | over_12.5 | 18.3% | under_12.5 | 81.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.5% | under_3.5 | 25.5% | over_4.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.5% | over_5.5 | 44.3% | under_5.5 | 55.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.9% | under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.4% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 10.5% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.0% | away_+3.5 | 74.1% | home_-1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.9% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% | home_+1.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.1% | home_+3.5 | 90.1% | away_-3.5 | 9.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.5% | under_22.5 | 42.5% | over_24.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.3% | over_26.5 | 32.9% | under_26.5 | 67.1% |
| over_28.5 | 22.7% | under_28.5 | 77.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.6% | under_10.5 | 29.4% | over_12.5 | 53.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.1% | over_14.5 | 37.5% | under_14.5 | 62.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.6% | under_10.5 | 51.4% | over_12.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.2% | over_14.5 | 17.5% | under_14.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 63.0% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.5% | away_+4.5 | 62.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.8% | home_-0.5 | 63.0% | away_+0.5 | 37.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+2.5 | 79.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.5% | home_+4.5 | 87.5% | away_-4.5 | 12.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.8% | under_6.5 | 30.2% | over_7.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.1% | over_8.5 | 44.0% | under_8.5 | 56.0% |
| over_9.5 | 32.2% | under_9.5 | 67.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.2% | under_3.5 | 36.8% | over_4.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.6% | over_5.5 | 29.8% | under_5.5 | 70.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.3% | under_3.5 | 48.7% | over_4.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.8% | over_5.5 | 19.4% | under_5.5 | 80.6% |
most
| home | 52.1% | draw | 13.0% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.1% | away_+2.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.9% | home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.2% | under_2.5 | 19.8% | over_3.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 43.6% | under_4.5 | 56.4% |
| over_5.5 | 27.2% | under_5.5 | 72.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.8% | under_1.5 | 40.2% | over_2.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.3% | under_1.5 | 33.7% | over_2.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.7% |
most
| home | 35.4% | draw | 19.4% | away | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.4% | away_+1.5 | 80.6% | home_-0.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.6% | home_+0.5 | 54.9% | away_-0.5 | 45.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.9% | away_-1.5 | 27.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 73.8% | under_20.5 | 26.2% | over_22.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 39.5% | over_24.5 | 46.3% | under_24.5 | 53.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 75.1% | under_9.5 | 24.9% | over_11.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.0% | over_13.5 | 36.8% | under_13.5 | 63.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 71.1% | under_9.5 | 28.9% | over_11.5 | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.9% | over_13.5 | 32.0% | under_13.5 | 68.0% |
most
| home | 50.0% | draw | 7.1% | away | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.5% | away_+3.5 | 70.5% | home_-0.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+2.5 | 70.5% | away_-2.5 | 29.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.2% | no | 85.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.1% | no | 92.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Valencia predictions · Betis predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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