Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
SL Benfica41.2%
Win probability · fair 2.43
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.6%Fair 1.36
SL Benfica or drawLikely68.8%Fair 1.45
Draw or Vitória SCClose call58.8%Fair 1.70
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. SL Benfica at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. SL Benfica are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.8%@ 2.09
Over 9.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Both teams to score52.9%@ 1.89
Under 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.07
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43
Model vs market
SL Benfica
41.2%
Draw
27.6%
Vitória SC
31.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.6%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call47.8%Fair 2.09
BTTS · YesClose call52.9%Fair 1.89
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.8%Fair 1.82
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.4%Fair 2.82
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.3%Fair 3.66
Most cornersSL Benfica51.9%Vitória SC37.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely43.6%Fair 2.29
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely32.4%Fair 3.09
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot22.7%Fair 4.40
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.6%2.547.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
SL Benfica win2.43
Draw3.63
Vitória SC win3.20
Both teams to score1.89
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.84
SL Benfica most2.43
Vitória SC most3.20
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.46
Over 8.5 corners1.76
Over 9.5 corners2.20
Over 10.5 corners2.87
SL Benfica most1.92
Vitória SC most2.65
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.44
Over 4.5 cards1.96
Over 5.5 cards2.97
SL Benfica most2.70
Vitória SC most2.27
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.16
SL Benfica most1.98
Vitória SC most2.74
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.79
Over 24.5 shots2.29
Over 26.5 shots3.09
Over 28.5 shots4.40
SL Benfica most1.71
Vitória SC most2.83
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
55.8%
Over 24.5
43.6%
Over 26.5
32.3%
Over 28.5
22.7%
Most: SL Benfica
58.6%
Most: Vitória SC
35.4%
SL Benfica Over 13.2
41.9%
Vitória SC Over 13.2
26.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.1%
Over 7.5
56.3%
Over 8.5
43.4%
Over 9.5
31.6%
Most: SL Benfica
50.4%
Most: Vitória SC
36.5%
SL Benfica Over 4.2
43.9%
Vitória SC Over 4.2
33.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
85.1%
Over 3.5
69.5%
Over 4.5
51.1%
Most: SL Benfica
37.1%
Most: Vitória SC
44.1%
SL Benfica Over 1.8
66.1%
Vitória SC Over 1.8
70.5%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
SL Benfica clean sheet
30.5%
Vitória SC clean sheet
24.7%
SL Benfica win to nil
22.3%
Vitória SC win to nil
16.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
41.2%
draw
27.6%
away
31.2%
double_chance
1X
68.8%
12
72.4%
X2
58.8%
dnb
home
56.9%
away
43.1%
btts
yes
52.9%
no
47.1%
clean_sheet
home
30.6%
away
24.7%
win_to_nil
home
22.4%
away
16.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.5%
home_by_2
12.4%
home_by_3plus
7.4%
away_by_1
18.1%
away_by_2
8.9%
away_by_3plus
4.2%
correct_score
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
5.3%
0-3
2.1%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
9.9%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
7.4%
1-3
2.9%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.8%
under_0.5
8.2%
over_1.5
73.6%
under_1.5
26.4%
over_2.5
47.8%
under_2.5
52.2%
over_3.5
26.1%
under_3.5
73.9%
over_4.5
12.0%
under_4.5
88.0%
over_5.5
4.8%
under_5.5
95.2%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.2%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
team_away
over_0.5
69.5%
under_0.5
30.6%
over_1.5
33.2%
under_1.5
66.8%
over_2.5
11.7%
under_2.5
88.3%
most
home
41.2%
draw
27.6%
away
31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
7.4%
away_+2.5
92.7%
home_-1.5
19.8%
away_+1.5
80.2%
home_-0.5
41.2%
away_+0.5
58.8%
home_+0.5
68.8%
away_-0.5
31.2%
home_+1.5
86.9%
away_-1.5
13.1%
home_+2.5
95.8%
away_-2.5
4.2%
total_exact
exact_0
8.2%
exact_1
18.3%
exact_2
25.8%
exact_3
21.7%
exact_4
14.0%
exact_5
7.2%
exact_6
3.1%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
31.4%
draw
42.0%
away
26.6%
total
over_0.5
69.8%
under_0.5
30.3%
over_1.5
33.6%
under_1.5
66.4%
over_2.5
12.0%
under_2.5
88.0%
btts
yes
20.2%
no
79.8%
total_exact
exact_0
30.3%
exact_1
36.2%
exact_2
21.6%
exact_3
8.6%
exact_4plus
3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.3%
draw
36.6%
away
27.1%
total
over_0.5
77.6%
under_0.5
22.4%
over_1.5
44.1%
under_1.5
55.9%
over_2.5
19.0%
under_2.5
81.0%
btts
yes
27.5%
no
72.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
24.7%
H/D
4.9%
H/A
1.8%
D/H
15.3%
D/D
15.4%
D/A
11.4%
A/H
2.6%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
18.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
68.4%
under_7.5
31.7%
over_8.5
57.0%
under_8.5
43.1%
over_9.5
45.5%
under_9.5
54.5%
over_10.5
34.9%
under_10.5
65.1%
over_11.5
25.7%
under_11.5
74.3%
over_12.5
18.2%
under_12.5
81.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.2%
under_3.5
31.8%
over_4.5
53.2%
under_4.5
46.8%
over_5.5
39.1%
under_5.5
60.9%
team_away
over_3.5
58.3%
under_3.5
41.7%
over_4.5
42.3%
under_4.5
57.7%
over_5.5
28.7%
under_5.5
71.3%
most
home
52.0%
draw
10.3%
away
37.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.5%
away_+3.5
76.6%
home_-1.5
41.7%
away_+1.5
58.3%
home_-0.5
52.0%
away_+0.5
48.0%
home_+0.5
62.3%
away_-0.5
37.7%
home_+1.5
71.8%
away_-1.5
28.2%
home_+3.5
86.3%
away_-3.5
13.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
55.8%
under_22.5
44.2%
over_24.5
43.6%
under_24.5
56.4%
over_26.5
32.4%
under_26.5
67.7%
over_28.5
22.7%
under_28.5
77.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
66.4%
under_10.5
33.6%
over_12.5
49.9%
under_12.5
50.1%
over_14.5
34.5%
under_14.5
65.5%
team_away
over_10.5
50.3%
under_10.5
49.7%
over_12.5
33.3%
under_12.5
66.7%
over_14.5
20.0%
under_14.5
80.0%
most
home
58.6%
draw
6.0%
away
35.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.2%
away_+4.5
65.8%
home_-2.5
46.2%
away_+2.5
53.8%
home_-0.5
58.6%
away_+0.5
41.4%
home_+0.5
64.6%
away_-0.5
35.4%
home_+2.5
75.4%
away_-2.5
24.6%
home_+4.5
84.1%
away_-4.5
15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.1%
under_6.5
30.9%
over_7.5
56.3%
under_7.5
43.7%
over_8.5
43.4%
under_8.5
56.6%
over_9.5
31.6%
under_9.5
68.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.7%
under_3.5
38.3%
over_4.5
43.9%
under_4.5
56.1%
over_5.5
28.4%
under_5.5
71.6%
team_away
over_3.5
52.0%
under_3.5
48.0%
over_4.5
33.9%
under_4.5
66.1%
over_5.5
20.0%
under_5.5
80.0%
most
home
50.4%
draw
13.1%
away
36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
25.7%
away_+2.5
74.3%
home_-0.5
50.4%
away_+0.5
49.6%
home_+0.5
63.5%
away_-0.5
36.5%
home_+2.5
84.4%
away_-2.5
15.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
85.1%
under_2.5
15.0%
over_3.5
69.5%
under_3.5
30.5%
over_4.5
51.1%
under_4.5
48.9%
over_5.5
33.7%
under_5.5
66.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
66.1%
under_1.5
33.9%
over_2.5
39.5%
under_2.5
60.5%
team_away
over_1.5
70.5%
under_1.5
29.5%
over_2.5
44.7%
under_2.5
55.3%
most
home
37.1%
draw
18.8%
away
44.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
21.0%
away_+1.5
79.0%
home_-0.5
37.1%
away_+0.5
62.9%
home_+0.5
55.9%
away_-0.5
44.1%
home_+1.5
73.3%
away_-1.5
26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
83.7%
under_20.5
16.3%
over_22.5
73.8%
under_22.5
26.2%
over_24.5
62.0%
under_24.5
38.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
80.7%
under_9.5
19.3%
over_11.5
64.7%
under_11.5
35.3%
over_13.5
46.9%
under_13.5
53.1%
team_away
over_9.5
79.5%
under_9.5
20.5%
over_11.5
63.0%
under_11.5
37.0%
over_13.5
45.0%
under_13.5
55.0%
most
home
48.1%
draw
6.4%
away
45.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.8%
away_+3.5
70.2%
home_-0.5
48.1%
away_+0.5
51.9%
home_+2.5
66.9%
away_-2.5
33.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
19.4%
no
80.6%
home
yes
10.1%
no
89.9%
away
yes
10.3%
no
89.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Primeira Liga