Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Porto68.8%
Win probability · fair 1.45
Top signals
Draw or PortoVery likely88.9%Fair 1.12
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.8%Fair 1.30
Not both teams to scoreClose call55.6%Fair 1.80
Model read
▾
Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Porto carry a 69% win probability against Marítimo M. on 10 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 44%. As a promoted side, Marítimo M. carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners43.3%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners34.1%@ 2.93
Marítimo M. or draw31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Over 2.5 goals52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds
0-2 correct score13.4%@ 7.46
0-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.99
1-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.48
Model vs market
Marítimo M.
11.1%
Draw
20.1%
Porto
68.8%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.8%Fair 1.30
Over 2.5Close call52.3%Fair 1.91
BTTS · YesUnlikely44.4%Fair 2.25
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely43.3%Fair 2.31
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.1%Fair 2.93
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.1%Fair 3.83
Most cornersMarítimo M.46.7%Porto42.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call56.2%Fair 1.78
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely44.0%Fair 2.27
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely32.8%Fair 3.05
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.1%Fair 4.33
Recent shot volume
Porto17.0 taken10.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.576.8%2.552.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Marítimo M. win9.03
Draw4.97
Porto win1.45
Both teams to score2.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.91
Over 3.5 goals3.32
Marítimo M. most9.03
Porto most1.45
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.50
Over 8.5 corners1.81
Over 9.5 corners2.28
Over 10.5 corners3.00
Marítimo M. most2.13
Porto most2.34
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.46
Over 4.5 cards2.00
Over 5.5 cards3.05
Marítimo M. most2.34
Porto most2.61
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.88
Over 8.5 SoT2.48
Over 9.5 SoT3.46
Marítimo M. most2.52
Porto most2.13
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.78
Over 24.5 shots2.27
Over 26.5 shots3.05
Over 28.5 shots4.33
Marítimo M. most1.85
Porto most2.52
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.22
Over 22.5 fouls1.40
Over 24.5 fouls1.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
56.2%
Over 24.5
44.0%
Over 26.5
32.8%
Over 28.5
23.1%
Most: Marítimo M.
54.2%
Most: Porto
39.7%
Marítimo M. Over 13.2
39.2%
Porto Over 13.2
29.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
66.4%
Over 7.5
53.2%
Over 8.5
40.3%
Over 9.5
28.9%
Most: Marítimo M.
39.7%
Most: Porto
46.9%
Marítimo M. Over 4.2
34.3%
Porto Over 4.2
39.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
84.5%
Over 3.5
68.6%
Over 4.5
50.1%
Most: Marítimo M.
42.7%
Most: Porto
38.3%
Marítimo M. Over 1.8
69.2%
Porto Over 1.8
66.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Marítimo M. clean sheet
12.6%
Porto clean sheet
48.7%
Marítimo M. win to nil
5.9%
Porto win to nil
42.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
11.1%
draw
20.1%
away
68.8%
double_chance
1X
31.2%
12
79.9%
X2
88.9%
dnb
home
13.9%
away
86.1%
btts
yes
44.4%
no
55.6%
clean_sheet
home
12.7%
away
49.7%
win_to_nil
home
5.9%
away
42.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1
8.0%
home_by_2
2.5%
home_by_3plus
0.6%
away_by_1
24.5%
away_by_2
21.2%
away_by_3plus
23.2%
correct_score
0-0
6.7%
0-1
12.5%
0-2
13.4%
0-3
9.3%
0-4
4.8%
0-5
2.0%
1-0
3.9%
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.4%
1-3
6.5%
1-4
3.4%
1-5
1.4%
2-0
1.6%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
3.3%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.5%
3-0
0.4%
3-1
0.8%
3-2
0.8%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
4-2
0.1%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.0%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.9%
likeliest_score
h
0.0%
a
200.0%
p
13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.3%
under_0.5
6.7%
over_1.5
76.8%
under_1.5
23.2%
over_2.5
52.3%
under_2.5
47.7%
over_3.5
30.1%
under_3.5
69.9%
over_4.5
14.8%
under_4.5
85.2%
over_5.5
6.3%
under_5.5
93.8%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
50.3%
under_0.5
49.7%
over_1.5
15.6%
under_1.5
84.4%
over_2.5
3.4%
under_2.5
96.6%
team_away
over_0.5
87.4%
under_0.5
12.7%
over_1.5
61.2%
under_1.5
38.8%
over_2.5
34.2%
under_2.5
65.8%
most
home
11.1%
draw
20.1%
away
68.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
0.6%
away_+2.5
99.4%
home_-1.5
3.1%
away_+1.5
96.9%
home_-0.5
11.1%
away_+0.5
88.9%
home_+0.5
31.2%
away_-0.5
68.8%
home_+1.5
55.7%
away_-1.5
44.4%
home_+2.5
76.8%
away_-2.5
23.2%
total_exact
exact_0
6.7%
exact_1
16.5%
exact_2
24.5%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
15.4%
exact_5
8.5%
exact_6
3.9%
exact_7plus
2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
14.2%
draw
41.2%
away
44.6%
total
over_0.5
67.9%
under_0.5
32.1%
over_1.5
31.4%
under_1.5
68.6%
over_2.5
10.7%
under_2.5
89.3%
btts
yes
15.5%
no
84.5%
total_exact
exact_0
32.1%
exact_1
36.5%
exact_2
20.7%
exact_3
7.8%
exact_4plus
2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
18.6%
draw
35.6%
away
45.8%
total
over_0.5
77.0%
under_0.5
23.1%
over_1.5
43.1%
under_1.5
56.9%
over_2.5
18.3%
under_2.5
81.7%
btts
yes
24.4%
no
75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
8.3%
H/D
3.6%
H/A
2.2%
D/H
7.7%
D/D
14.7%
D/A
18.9%
A/H
1.3%
A/D
4.7%
A/A
38.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
66.8%
under_7.5
33.3%
over_8.5
55.2%
under_8.5
44.8%
over_9.5
43.8%
under_9.5
56.2%
over_10.5
33.4%
under_10.5
66.6%
over_11.5
24.4%
under_11.5
75.6%
over_12.5
17.2%
under_12.5
82.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
63.8%
under_3.5
36.2%
over_4.5
48.3%
under_4.5
51.7%
over_5.5
34.4%
under_5.5
65.6%
team_away
over_3.5
60.9%
under_3.5
39.1%
over_4.5
45.1%
under_4.5
54.9%
over_5.5
31.4%
under_5.5
68.6%
most
home
46.9%
draw
10.5%
away
42.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.5%
away_+3.5
80.5%
home_-1.5
36.6%
away_+1.5
63.4%
home_-0.5
46.9%
away_+0.5
53.2%
home_+0.5
57.3%
away_-0.5
42.7%
home_+1.5
67.3%
away_-1.5
32.7%
home_+3.5
83.3%
away_-3.5
16.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
56.2%
under_22.5
43.8%
over_24.5
44.0%
under_24.5
56.0%
over_26.5
32.8%
under_26.5
67.2%
over_28.5
23.1%
under_28.5
76.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
63.9%
under_10.5
36.1%
over_12.5
47.1%
under_12.5
52.9%
over_14.5
31.9%
under_14.5
68.1%
team_away
over_10.5
54.0%
under_10.5
46.0%
over_12.5
36.8%
under_12.5
63.2%
over_14.5
22.9%
under_14.5
77.1%
most
home
54.2%
draw
6.1%
away
39.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
30.2%
away_+4.5
69.8%
home_-2.5
41.8%
away_+2.5
58.2%
home_-0.5
54.2%
away_+0.5
45.8%
home_+0.5
60.3%
away_-0.5
39.7%
home_+2.5
71.7%
away_-2.5
28.3%
home_+4.5
81.2%
away_-4.5
18.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
66.4%
under_6.5
33.6%
over_7.5
53.3%
under_7.5
46.8%
over_8.5
40.3%
under_8.5
59.7%
over_9.5
28.9%
under_9.5
71.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
52.3%
under_3.5
47.7%
over_4.5
34.3%
under_4.5
65.7%
over_5.5
20.3%
under_5.5
79.7%
team_away
over_3.5
57.4%
under_3.5
42.6%
over_4.5
39.4%
under_4.5
60.7%
over_5.5
24.5%
under_5.5
75.5%
most
home
39.7%
draw
13.5%
away
46.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
17.5%
away_+2.5
82.5%
home_-0.5
39.7%
away_+0.5
60.3%
home_+0.5
53.1%
away_-0.5
46.9%
home_+2.5
77.4%
away_-2.5
22.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
84.5%
under_2.5
15.5%
over_3.5
68.6%
under_3.5
31.4%
over_4.5
50.1%
under_4.5
49.9%
over_5.5
32.8%
under_5.5
67.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
69.2%
under_1.5
30.9%
over_2.5
43.0%
under_2.5
57.0%
team_away
over_1.5
66.3%
under_1.5
33.7%
over_2.5
39.8%
under_2.5
60.3%
most
home
42.7%
draw
19.0%
away
38.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
25.5%
away_+1.5
74.5%
home_-0.5
42.7%
away_+0.5
57.3%
home_+0.5
61.7%
away_-0.5
38.3%
home_+1.5
78.1%
away_-1.5
21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
81.8%
under_20.5
18.3%
over_22.5
71.3%
under_22.5
28.7%
over_24.5
59.2%
under_24.5
40.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
76.4%
under_9.5
23.6%
over_11.5
59.0%
under_11.5
41.0%
over_13.5
41.0%
under_13.5
59.0%
team_away
over_9.5
80.5%
under_9.5
19.5%
over_11.5
64.5%
under_11.5
35.5%
over_13.5
46.8%
under_13.5
53.2%
most
home
42.7%
draw
6.4%
away
50.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.2%
away_+3.5
74.8%
home_-0.5
42.7%
away_+0.5
57.3%
home_+2.5
61.8%
away_-2.5
38.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
21.4%
no
78.6%
home
yes
14.6%
no
85.4%
away
yes
8.0%
no
92.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Primeira Liga
Porto