PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle
Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1013:30UK
Cambuur

LLDWD

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

PEC Zwolle or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

PEC Zwolle42.1%

Win probability · fair 2.38

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.1%Fair 1.20
PEC Zwolle or drawLikely66.5%Fair 1.50
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.4%Fair 1.55

Model read

PEC Zwolle versus Cambuur in the Eredivisie on 11 October 2026 is finely balanced. PEC Zwolle edge it at 42%, but the gap to the field is slim. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 64%. As a promoted side, PEC Zwolle carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.8%@ 2.23
Over 11.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Cambuur win33.4%@ 2.99
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.5%@ 1.63
Draw or Cambuur57.8%@ 1.73
Over 9.5 corners54.5%@ 1.83
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.08
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.29
1-2 correct score7.8%@ 12.82

Model vs market

PEC Zwolle

42.1%

Draw

24.4%

Cambuur

33.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely61.5%Fair 1.63
BTTS · YesLikely63.6%Fair 1.57

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.4%Fair 1.55
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.5%Fair 1.83
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.8%Fair 2.23
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.8%Fair 2.79
Most cornersPEC Zwolle55.4%Cambuur34.7%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.9%Fair 1.89
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.9%Fair 2.39

Recent shot volume

Cambuur12.0 taken15.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.1%2.561.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.5%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

CambuurLLDWD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PEC ZwolleCambuur
League position#23 of 23#11 of 23
Record W-D-L0-0-22-3-4
Current streakL2D2
Points per game·1.00
Record, home vs away0-0-10-3-1
PPG, home vs away·0.75
Goals scored per game·1.56
Goals conceded per game·2.22
Scored, home vs away·1.25
Conceded, home vs away·1.75
1st half goals per game·0.43
2nd half goals per game·1.00
Corners won per game·3.7
Cards per game·1.6
Fouls per game·12.1
Red cards this season·0
Shots per game·11.9
Shots faced per game·15.9
Shots on target per game·4.1
Over 2.5 rate

·77.8%

BTTS rate

·66.7%

Clean sheets

·22.2%

Rates this season:PEC ZwolleCambuur

League averages this season: 3.72 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 74% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

PEC Zwolle win2.37
Draw4.09
Cambuur win2.99
Both teams to score1.57

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.55
Over 4.5 goals4.65
PEC Zwolle most2.37
Cambuur most2.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.19
PEC Zwolle most1.80
Cambuur most2.88

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.72
Over 3.5 cards2.78
Over 4.5 cards5.21
Over 5.5 cards11.15
PEC Zwolle most3.30
Cambuur most2.17

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.33
Over 8.5 SoT1.54
Over 9.5 SoT1.85
PEC Zwolle most1.96
Cambuur most2.64

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.56
Over 26.5 shots1.89
Over 28.5 shots2.39
PEC Zwolle most1.67
Cambuur most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.66
Over 22.5 fouls2.21
Over 24.5 fouls3.20
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 74.1% Over 24.5 63.9% Over 26.5 52.9% Over 28.5 41.9%
Most: PEC Zwolle 59.8% Most: Cambuur 34.9%
PEC Zwolle Over 13.2 57.5% Cambuur Over 13.2 39.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 83.9% Over 7.5 75.1% Over 8.5 64.9% Over 9.5 54.0%
Most: PEC Zwolle 51.1% Most: Cambuur 37.9%
PEC Zwolle Over 4.2 59.0% Cambuur Over 4.2 49.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 58.0% Over 3.5 35.9% Over 4.5 19.2%
Most: PEC Zwolle 30.3% Most: Cambuur 46.1%
PEC Zwolle Over 1.8 38.2% Cambuur Over 1.8 50.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

PEC Zwolle clean sheet 22.4%
Cambuur clean sheet 18.4%
PEC Zwolle win to nil 17.7%
Cambuur win to nil 13.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.1% draw 24.5% away 33.4%
double_chance
1X 66.6% 12 75.6% X2 57.9%
dnb
home 55.7% away 44.3%
btts
yes 63.6% no 36.4%
clean_sheet
home 22.6% away 18.5%
win_to_nil
home 17.9% away 13.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.0% home_by_2 12.8% home_by_3plus 9.3%
away_by_1 17.5% away_by_2 9.9% away_by_3plus 6.0%
correct_score
0-0 4.7% 0-1 5.7% 0-2 4.6%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 6.5% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.9% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.0% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 5.0% 3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 2.1% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.3% under_0.5 4.7% over_1.5 83.1%
under_1.5 16.9% over_2.5 61.5% under_2.5 38.5%
over_3.5 39.2% under_3.5 60.8% over_4.5 21.5%
under_4.5 78.5% over_5.5 10.3% under_5.5 89.7%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 81.5% under_0.5 18.5% over_1.5 50.3%
under_1.5 49.7% over_2.5 24.0% under_2.5 76.0%
team_away
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
most
home 42.1% draw 24.5% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.3% away_+2.5 90.7% home_-1.5 22.1%
away_+1.5 77.9% home_-0.5 42.1% away_+0.5 57.9%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 84.1%
away_-1.5 15.9% home_+2.5 94.0% away_-2.5 6.0%
total_exact
exact_0 4.7% exact_1 12.2% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.7% exact_5 11.2%
exact_6 5.9% exact_7plus 4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.1% draw 30.6% away 16.3%
total
over_0.5 82.6% under_0.5 17.4% over_1.5 52.2%
under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 25.6% under_2.5 74.4%
btts
yes 29.2% no 70.9%
total_exact
exact_0 17.4% exact_1 30.4% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 15.5% exact_4plus 10.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.6% draw 30.6% away 29.7%
total
over_0.5 86.5% under_0.5 13.5% over_1.5 59.4%
under_1.5 40.6% over_2.5 32.4% under_2.5 67.6%
btts
yes 39.7% no 60.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 42.7% H/D 6.9% H/A 3.4%
D/H 12.1% D/D 9.4% D/A 9.1%
A/H 2.2% A/D 3.3% A/A 10.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.8% under_7.5 21.2% over_8.5 68.6%
under_8.5 31.4% over_9.5 57.2% under_9.5 42.8%
over_10.5 45.7% under_10.5 54.3% over_11.5 34.9%
under_11.5 65.1% over_12.5 25.5% under_12.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.0% under_3.5 23.0% over_4.5 63.3%
under_4.5 36.7% over_5.5 49.0% under_5.5 51.0%
team_away
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 47.5%
under_4.5 52.5% over_5.5 32.9% under_5.5 67.1%
most
home 55.6% draw 9.6% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-1.5 45.6%
away_+1.5 54.4% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 65.2% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+1.5 74.0%
away_-1.5 26.1% home_+3.5 87.3% away_-3.5 12.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.1% under_22.5 25.9% over_24.5 63.9%
under_24.5 36.1% over_26.5 52.9% under_26.5 47.1%
over_28.5 41.9% under_28.5 58.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.3% under_10.5 21.7% over_12.5 64.8%
under_12.5 35.2% over_14.5 50.2% under_14.5 49.8%
team_away
over_10.5 63.3% under_10.5 36.7% over_12.5 47.1%
under_12.5 52.9% over_14.5 32.4% under_14.5 67.7%
most
home 59.8% draw 5.3% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+2.5 74.9%
away_-2.5 25.1% home_+4.5 83.0% away_-4.5 17.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 83.9% under_6.5 16.1% over_7.5 75.1%
under_7.5 24.9% over_8.5 64.9% under_8.5 35.1%
over_9.5 54.0% under_9.5 46.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.9% under_3.5 26.1% over_4.5 59.0%
under_4.5 41.0% over_5.5 44.1% under_5.5 55.9%
team_away
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 49.7%
under_4.5 50.3% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.3%
most
home 51.1% draw 11.0% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.9% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 51.1%
away_+0.5 48.9% home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9%
home_+2.5 80.7% away_-2.5 19.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 58.0% under_2.5 42.0% over_3.5 35.9%
under_3.5 64.1% over_4.5 19.2% under_4.5 80.8%
over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.0%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 38.2% under_1.5 61.8% over_2.5 15.2%
under_2.5 84.8%
team_away
over_1.5 50.3% under_1.5 49.7% over_2.5 24.4%
under_2.5 75.6%
most
home 30.3% draw 23.6% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.3% away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 30.3%
away_+0.5 69.7% home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1%
home_+1.5 75.4% away_-1.5 24.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 60.4% under_20.5 39.6% over_22.5 45.3%
under_22.5 54.7% over_24.5 31.3% under_24.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 61.4% under_9.5 38.6% over_11.5 39.8%
under_11.5 60.2% over_13.5 22.0% under_13.5 78.0%
team_away
over_9.5 66.7% under_9.5 33.3% over_11.5 45.6%
under_11.5 54.4% over_13.5 26.9% under_13.5 73.1%
most
home 42.1% draw 7.6% away 50.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.9% away_+3.5 78.1% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+2.5 64.7% away_-2.5 35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.9% no 88.1%
home
yes 8.9% no 91.1%
away
yes 3.3% no 96.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: PEC Zwolle predictions · Cambuur predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

EredivisiePEC ZwolleCambuurTrack record