Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Vallecano42.2%
Win probability · fair 2.37
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.7%Fair 1.34
Vallecano or drawLikely69.6%Fair 1.44
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.5%Fair 1.57
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Vallecano at 42% for 10 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. 2) Schedule edge: Ath Bilbao have had 3 more days of rest than Vallecano. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for Vallecano, 1 draws and 4 for Ath Bilbao over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Sergio Camello drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Vallecano W2 D1 L3, Ath Bilbao W2 D1 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.5%@ 2.35
Over 11.5 corners33.0%@ 3.03
Ath Bilbao win30.4%@ 3.29
Medium risk
Draw or Ath Bilbao57.8%@ 1.73
Both teams to score53.8%@ 1.86
Over 9.5 corners52.9%@ 1.89
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.75
1-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.29
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.22
Model vs market
Vallecano
42.2%
Draw
27.4%
Ath Bilbao
30.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.7%Fair 1.34
Over 2.5Close call49.2%Fair 2.03
BTTS · YesClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.5%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.9%Fair 1.89
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.5%Fair 2.35
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.0%Fair 3.03
Most cornersVallecano53.8%Ath Bilbao35.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.8%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.2%Fair 1.95
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.57
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.9%Fair 3.58
Recent shot volume
Vallecano12.5 taken17.7 faced
Ath Bilbao13.0 taken11.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Vallecano (6 games)
5.3 / 7.3
Ath Bilbao (5 games)
7.8 / 6.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.574.7%2.549.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
VallecanoDLWLW
Ath BilbaoLLWWD
Last 5 meetings: Vallecano 0 · 1 draws · Ath Bilbao 4 · 2.2 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Sergio CamelloVallecano · key player
To score25.8%3.88
1+ on target47.2%2.12
2+ shots43.8%2.28
Shots/90 2.89SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.58
Gorka GuruzetaAth Bilbao · key player
To score21.7%4.61
1+ on target51.0%1.96
2+ shots59.7%1.68
Shots/90 3.05SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.37
AlemãoVallecano · in form
To score11.9%8.40
1+ on target35.6%2.81
2+ shots25.2%3.97
Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.3
Maroan SannadiAth Bilbao · in form
To score6.8%14.71
1+ on target33.8%2.96
2+ shots26.4%3.79
Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.17
Álvaro GarcíaVallecano · in form
To score11.8%8.47
1+ on target48.6%2.06
2+ shots51.3%1.95
Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.16
Oihan SancetAth Bilbao · in form
To score25.9%3.86
1+ on target45.8%2.18
2+ shots56.9%1.76
Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.43
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Vallecano win2.35
Draw3.69
Ath Bilbao win3.29
Both teams to score1.86
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.03
Over 3.5 goals3.66
Vallecano most2.35
Ath Bilbao most3.29
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.34
Vallecano most1.86
Ath Bilbao most2.80
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.60
Over 4.5 cards2.28
Over 5.5 cards3.59
Vallecano most2.51
Ath Bilbao most2.45
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.51
Over 8.5 SoT1.85
Over 9.5 SoT2.40
Vallecano most1.64
Ath Bilbao most3.66
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.95
Over 26.5 shots2.57
Over 28.5 shots3.58
Vallecano most1.62
Ath Bilbao most3.10
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.69
Over 24.5 fouls2.21
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.8%
Over 24.5
51.2%
Over 26.5
38.9%
Over 28.5
27.9%
Most: Vallecano
61.8%
Most: Ath Bilbao
32.2%
Vallecano Over 13.2
49.1%
Ath Bilbao Over 13.2
28.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
77.7%
Over 7.5
66.4%
Over 8.5
53.9%
Over 9.5
41.6%
Most: Vallecano
61.1%
Most: Ath Bilbao
27.3%
Vallecano Over 4.2
58.3%
Ath Bilbao Over 4.2
33.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
80.0%
Over 3.5
62.5%
Over 4.5
43.9%
Most: Vallecano
39.9%
Most: Ath Bilbao
40.9%
Vallecano Over 1.8
62.7%
Ath Bilbao Over 1.8
63.4%
Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Sergio Camello
2.89
1.24
0.58
47.2%
43.8%
25.8%
Alemão
2.29
1.04
0.3
35.6%
25.2%
11.9%
Álvaro García
2.2
0.85
0.16
48.6%
51.3%
11.8%
Randy Nteka
1.89
0.85
0.37
32.1%
21.3%
15.5%
Jorge De Frutos
1.98
0.8
0.26
47.2%
46.8%
18.7%
Ath Bilbao: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Gorka Guruzeta
3.05
1.08
0.37
51.0%
59.7%
21.7%
Maroan Sannadi
2.42
1
0.17
33.8%
26.4%
6.8%
Oihan Sancet
2.74
0.88
0.43
45.8%
56.9%
25.9%
Iñaki Williams
2.33
0.88
0.17
51.4%
56.9%
13.0%
Alex Berenguer
1.95
0.79
0.18
44.5%
42.6%
12.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Vallecano clean sheet
30.3%
Ath Bilbao clean sheet
23.4%
Vallecano win to nil
22.6%
Ath Bilbao win to nil
15.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
42.5%
draw
27.1%
away
30.4%
double_chance
1X
69.6%
12
72.9%
X2
57.5%
dnb
home
58.3%
away
41.7%
btts
yes
53.8%
no
46.2%
clean_sheet
home
30.5%
away
23.5%
win_to_nil
home
22.7%
away
15.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.6%
home_by_2
12.9%
home_by_3plus
8.0%
away_by_1
17.6%
away_by_2
8.7%
away_by_3plus
4.1%
correct_score
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.9%
0-2
5.1%
0-3
2.0%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
9.7%
1-1
12.9%
1-2
7.3%
1-3
2.9%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
2.6%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.3%
4-1
1.6%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.3%
under_0.5
7.8%
over_1.5
74.7%
under_1.5
25.3%
over_2.5
49.2%
under_2.5
50.8%
over_3.5
27.3%
under_3.5
72.7%
over_4.5
12.9%
under_4.5
87.1%
over_5.5
5.2%
under_5.5
94.8%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
76.5%
under_0.5
23.5%
over_1.5
42.6%
under_1.5
57.4%
over_2.5
18.0%
under_2.5
82.1%
team_away
over_0.5
69.6%
under_0.5
30.5%
over_1.5
33.4%
under_1.5
66.6%
over_2.5
11.9%
under_2.5
88.1%
most
home
42.5%
draw
27.1%
away
30.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
8.0%
away_+2.5
92.0%
home_-1.5
20.9%
away_+1.5
79.1%
home_-0.5
42.5%
away_+0.5
57.5%
home_+0.5
69.6%
away_-0.5
30.4%
home_+1.5
87.2%
away_-1.5
12.8%
home_+2.5
95.9%
away_-2.5
4.1%
total_exact
exact_0
7.8%
exact_1
17.6%
exact_2
25.5%
exact_3
21.9%
exact_4
14.5%
exact_5
7.6%
exact_6
3.4%
exact_7plus
1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
33.6%
draw
44.3%
away
22.2%
total
over_0.5
66.1%
under_0.5
33.9%
over_1.5
29.5%
under_1.5
70.6%
over_2.5
9.6%
under_2.5
90.4%
btts
yes
17.0%
no
83.0%
total_exact
exact_0
33.9%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.8%
exact_3
7.2%
exact_4plus
2.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.2%
draw
37.1%
away
27.7%
total
over_0.5
77.0%
under_0.5
23.0%
over_1.5
43.1%
under_1.5
56.9%
over_2.5
18.3%
under_2.5
81.7%
btts
yes
26.9%
no
73.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
26.2%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
15.6%
D/D
16.4%
D/A
12.3%
A/H
2.1%
A/D
4.5%
A/A
15.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
77.2%
under_7.5
22.8%
over_8.5
66.4%
under_8.5
33.6%
over_9.5
54.6%
under_9.5
45.4%
over_10.5
42.8%
under_10.5
57.2%
over_11.5
32.0%
under_11.5
68.0%
over_12.5
22.8%
under_12.5
77.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.9%
under_3.5
24.1%
over_4.5
61.2%
under_4.5
38.8%
over_5.5
46.0%
under_5.5
54.1%
team_away
over_3.5
64.4%
under_3.5
35.6%
over_4.5
47.5%
under_4.5
52.5%
over_5.5
32.3%
under_5.5
67.7%
most
home
53.9%
draw
10.5%
away
35.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.1%
away_+3.5
75.9%
home_-1.5
43.2%
away_+1.5
56.8%
home_-0.5
53.9%
away_+0.5
46.1%
home_+0.5
64.3%
away_-0.5
35.7%
home_+1.5
73.8%
away_-1.5
26.2%
home_+3.5
87.9%
away_-3.5
12.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.8%
under_22.5
36.2%
over_24.5
51.2%
under_24.5
48.8%
over_26.5
39.0%
under_26.5
61.1%
over_28.5
27.9%
under_28.5
72.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
73.8%
under_10.5
26.2%
over_12.5
57.5%
under_12.5
42.5%
over_14.5
41.0%
under_14.5
59.0%
team_away
over_10.5
54.3%
under_10.5
45.7%
over_12.5
36.1%
under_12.5
63.9%
over_14.5
21.5%
under_14.5
78.5%
most
home
61.8%
draw
5.9%
away
32.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.7%
away_+4.5
63.3%
home_-2.5
49.2%
away_+2.5
50.8%
home_-0.5
61.8%
away_+0.5
38.2%
home_+0.5
67.8%
away_-0.5
32.2%
home_+2.5
78.3%
away_-2.5
21.7%
home_+4.5
86.5%
away_-4.5
13.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
77.7%
under_6.5
22.3%
over_7.5
66.4%
under_7.5
33.7%
over_8.5
53.9%
under_8.5
46.1%
over_9.5
41.6%
under_9.5
58.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
74.3%
under_3.5
25.7%
over_4.5
58.3%
under_4.5
41.7%
over_5.5
42.1%
under_5.5
57.9%
team_away
over_3.5
51.8%
under_3.5
48.2%
over_4.5
33.5%
under_4.5
66.5%
over_5.5
19.5%
under_5.5
80.5%
most
home
61.1%
draw
11.6%
away
27.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
36.1%
away_+2.5
63.9%
home_-0.5
61.1%
away_+0.5
38.9%
home_+0.5
72.7%
away_-0.5
27.3%
home_+2.5
89.4%
away_-2.5
10.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
80.0%
under_2.5
20.0%
over_3.5
62.5%
under_3.5
37.5%
over_4.5
44.0%
under_4.5
56.1%
over_5.5
27.8%
under_5.5
72.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
62.7%
under_1.5
37.3%
over_2.5
36.7%
under_2.5
63.3%
team_away
over_1.5
63.3%
under_1.5
36.7%
over_2.5
37.4%
under_2.5
62.6%
most
home
39.9%
draw
19.3%
away
40.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
23.1%
away_+1.5
77.0%
home_-0.5
39.9%
away_+0.5
60.1%
home_+0.5
59.1%
away_-0.5
40.9%
home_+1.5
76.1%
away_-1.5
23.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
72.6%
under_20.5
27.4%
over_22.5
59.3%
under_22.5
40.7%
over_24.5
45.3%
under_24.5
54.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
70.2%
under_9.5
29.8%
over_11.5
50.2%
under_11.5
49.8%
over_13.5
31.5%
under_13.5
68.5%
team_away
over_9.5
74.2%
under_9.5
25.8%
over_11.5
55.1%
under_11.5
44.9%
over_13.5
36.1%
under_13.5
63.9%
most
home
43.0%
draw
7.1%
away
49.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.9%
away_+3.5
76.1%
home_-0.5
43.0%
away_+0.5
57.0%
home_+2.5
64.0%
away_-2.5
36.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
22.9%
no
77.1%
home
yes
11.7%
no
88.4%
away
yes
12.8%
no
87.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
La Liga
Vallecano
Ath Bilbao