FC Koln vs M’gladbach prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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FC Koln vs M'gladbach: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
FC Koln

LLWLD

Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1001:00UK
M'gladbach

LWLLL

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

75%

FC Koln or draw

64%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

FC Koln53.2%

Win probability · fair 1.88

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.7%Fair 1.18
FC Koln or drawLikely74.5%Fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goalsLikely64.2%Fair 1.56

Model read

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes FC Koln heavy favourites at 53% when FC Koln meet M'gladbach in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for FC Koln, 3 draws and 1 for M'gladbach, averaging 4.0 goals a game. • Gian-Luca Waldschmidt drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. The run in: FC Koln arrive W1 D2 L3, M'gladbach W2 D0 L4. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Draw or M'gladbach46.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners41.9%@ 2.39
Over 11.5 corners32.5%@ 3.08
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.84
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.60
2-0 correct score7.0%@ 14.37

Model vs market

FC Koln

53.2%

Draw

21.3%

M'gladbach

25.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.7%Fair 1.18
Over 2.5Likely64.2%Fair 1.56
BTTS · YesLikely64.1%Fair 1.56

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.0%Fair 1.59
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely41.9%Fair 2.39
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.5%Fair 3.08
Most cornersFC Koln57.3%M'gladbach32.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.7%Fair 1.36
Over 24.5 shotsLikely62.5%Fair 1.60
Over 26.5 shotsClose call50.5%Fair 1.98
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely38.7%Fair 2.58

Recent shot volume

FC Koln14.3 taken15.7 faced
M'gladbach13.7 taken15.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

FC Koln (3 games)

5.7 / 11.3

M'gladbach (3 games)

6.7 / 8.3

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.7%2.564.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.564.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

FC KolnLLWLD
M'gladbachLWLLL

Last 5 meetings: FC Koln 1 · 3 draws · M'gladbach 1 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-03-21FC Koln 3-3 M'gladbach
2025-11-08M'gladbach 3-1 FC Koln
2024-03-09M'gladbach 3-3 FC Koln
2023-10-22FC Koln 3-1 M'gladbach
2023-04-02FC Koln 0-0 M'gladbach

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FC KolnM'gladbach
League position#13 of 18#18 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-20-0-4
Current streakL1L4
Record, home vs away1-1-00-0-2
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.97 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Gian-Luca WaldschmidtFC Koln · key player
To score18.1%5.52
1+ on target38.2%2.62
2+ shots27.9%3.58
Shots/90 3.66SoT/90 1.69Goals/90 0.7
Tim KleindienstM'gladbach · key player
To score33.6%2.98
1+ on target63.0%1.59
2+ shots61.8%1.62
Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.46
Said El MalaFC Koln · in form
To score31.5%3.17
1+ on target60.0%1.67
2+ shots66.2%1.51
Shots/90 3.54SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.59
Shuto MachinoM'gladbach · in form
To score20.3%4.93
1+ on target40.4%2.48
2+ shots32.9%3.04
Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.46
Ragnar AcheFC Koln · in form
To score21.4%4.67
1+ on target47.1%2.12
2+ shots54.2%1.85
Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.37
Hugo BolinM'gladbach · in form
To score16.3%6.13
1+ on target41.0%2.44
2+ shots47.2%2.12
Shots/90 2.86SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.32

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

FC Koln win1.97
Draw4.36
M'gladbach win3.82
Both teams to score1.56

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.56
Over 3.5 goals2.37
Over 4.5 goals4.19
FC Koln most1.97
M'gladbach most3.82

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.38
FC Koln most1.74
M'gladbach most3.09

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.34
Over 3.5 cards1.83
Over 4.5 cards2.86
Over 5.5 cards5.05
FC Koln most2.74
M'gladbach most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.52
Over 9.5 SoT1.84
FC Koln most1.50
M'gladbach most4.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.98
Over 28.5 shots2.58
FC Koln most1.54
M'gladbach most3.37

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.19
Over 22.5 fouls2.95
Over 24.5 fouls4.21
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.7% Over 24.5 62.5% Over 26.5 50.5% Over 28.5 38.7%
Most: FC Koln 64.8% Most: M'gladbach 29.7%
FC Koln Over 13.2 59.4% M'gladbach Over 13.2 33.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.8% Over 7.5 76.0% Over 8.5 65.6% Over 9.5 54.4%
Most: FC Koln 66.5% Most: M'gladbach 23.6%
FC Koln Over 4.2 69.1% M'gladbach Over 4.2 37.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 74.6% Over 3.5 54.5% Over 4.5 35.0%
Most: FC Koln 36.5% Most: M'gladbach 42.5%
FC Koln Over 1.8 55.8% M'gladbach Over 1.8 60.0%

FC Koln: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 3.66 1.69 0.7 38.2% 27.9% 18.1%
Said El Mala 3.54 1.43 0.59 60.0% 66.2% 31.5%
Ragnar Ache 2.8 0.98 0.37 47.1% 54.2% 21.4%
Mikey Moore 2.07 0.97 0 37.4% 26.4% 0.0%
Marius Bülter 2.21 0.94 0.36 44.3% 40.0% 20.1%

M'gladbach: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Kleindienst 2.35 1.12 0.46 63.0% 61.8% 33.6%
Shuto Machino 2.39 1.05 0.46 40.4% 32.9% 20.3%
Hugo Bolin 2.86 0.95 0.32 41.0% 47.2% 16.3%
Robin Hack 2.35 0.92 0.17 46.7% 47.7% 11.0%
Wael Mohya 1.9 0.76 0.25 27.1% 18.8% 9.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

FC Koln clean sheet 25.4%
M'gladbach clean sheet 14.2%
FC Koln win to nil 21.2%
M'gladbach win to nil 10.1%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 50.9% draw 22.9% away 26.2%
double_chance
1X 73.8% 12 77.1% X2 49.1%
dnb
home 66.0% away 34.0%
btts
yes 64.1% no 35.9%
clean_sheet
home 25.8% away 14.2%
win_to_nil
home 21.6% away 10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.3% home_by_2 15.5% home_by_3plus 14.0%
away_by_1 14.7% away_by_2 7.5% away_by_3plus 4.0%
correct_score
0-0 4.2% 0-1 4.5% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 6.7% 1-1 10.2% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.0% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 6.4%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 4.2%
3-3 1.9% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 3.0% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.9% under_0.5 4.2% over_1.5 84.7%
under_1.5 15.3% over_2.5 64.2% under_2.5 35.8%
over_3.5 42.1% under_3.5 57.9% over_4.5 23.9%
under_4.5 76.1% over_5.5 11.8% under_5.5 88.2%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 85.8% under_0.5 14.2% over_1.5 58.0%
under_1.5 42.0% over_2.5 31.0% under_2.5 69.0%
team_away
over_0.5 74.2% under_0.5 25.8% over_1.5 39.3%
under_1.5 60.7% over_2.5 15.6% under_2.5 84.4%
most
home 50.9% draw 22.9% away 26.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.0% away_+2.5 86.0% home_-1.5 29.6%
away_+1.5 70.4% home_-0.5 50.9% away_+0.5 49.1%
home_+0.5 73.8% away_-0.5 26.2% home_+1.5 88.5%
away_-1.5 11.5% home_+2.5 96.0% away_-2.5 4.0%
total_exact
exact_0 4.2% exact_1 11.1% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.3% exact_5 12.1%
exact_6 6.7% exact_7plus 5.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.3% draw 38.8% away 25.9%
total
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
btts
yes 24.1% no 75.9%
total_exact
exact_0 25.6% exact_1 34.9% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 10.8% exact_4plus 4.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.7% draw 31.4% away 26.9%
total
over_0.5 85.0% under_0.5 15.0% over_1.5 56.5%
under_1.5 43.5% over_2.5 29.5% under_2.5 70.5%
btts
yes 36.8% no 63.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.0% H/D 5.0% H/A 2.3%
D/H 16.2% D/D 12.2% D/A 10.4%
A/H 3.6% A/D 5.4% A/A 16.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.6% under_7.5 23.4% over_8.5 65.7%
under_8.5 34.3% over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.2%
over_10.5 42.1% under_10.5 57.9% over_11.5 31.4%
under_11.5 68.6% over_12.5 22.3% under_12.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.4% under_3.5 22.6% over_4.5 63.1%
under_4.5 36.9% over_5.5 48.0% under_5.5 52.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.4% under_3.5 38.6% over_4.5 44.2%
under_4.5 55.8% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.3% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.8% away_+3.5 73.2% home_-1.5 46.6%
away_+1.5 53.4% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 76.7%
away_-1.5 23.3% home_+3.5 89.8% away_-3.5 10.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.7% under_22.5 26.3% over_24.5 62.5%
under_24.5 37.5% over_26.5 50.5% under_26.5 49.5%
over_28.5 38.7% under_28.5 61.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 81.0% under_10.5 19.0% over_12.5 67.1%
under_12.5 32.9% over_14.5 51.5% under_14.5 48.5%
team_away
over_10.5 59.9% under_10.5 40.1% over_12.5 41.9%
under_12.5 58.1% over_14.5 26.6% under_14.5 73.4%
most
home 64.8% draw 5.5% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.9% away_+4.5 59.1% home_-2.5 53.0%
away_+2.5 47.0% home_-0.5 64.8% away_+0.5 35.2%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+2.5 79.9%
away_-2.5 20.1% home_+4.5 87.3% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.8% under_6.5 15.2% over_7.5 76.0%
under_7.5 24.0% over_8.5 65.6% under_8.5 34.4%
over_9.5 54.4% under_9.5 45.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 82.0% under_3.5 18.0% over_4.5 69.1%
under_4.5 30.9% over_5.5 54.7% under_5.5 45.3%
team_away
over_3.5 55.7% under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 23.6% under_5.5 76.4%
most
home 66.5% draw 9.9% away 23.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 44.0% away_+2.5 56.0% home_-0.5 66.5%
away_+0.5 33.5% home_+0.5 76.4% away_-0.5 23.6%
home_+2.5 90.4% away_-2.5 9.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 74.6% under_2.5 25.4% over_3.5 54.5%
under_3.5 45.5% over_4.5 35.0% under_4.5 65.0%
over_5.5 19.8% under_5.5 80.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.8% under_1.5 44.2% over_2.5 28.8%
under_2.5 71.2%
team_away
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 32.9%
under_2.5 67.1%
most
home 36.6% draw 21.0% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 36.6%
away_+0.5 63.4% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+1.5 76.2% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 45.8% under_20.5 54.2% over_22.5 33.9%
under_22.5 66.1% over_24.5 23.8% under_24.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 46.6% under_9.5 53.4% over_11.5 29.8%
under_11.5 70.2% over_13.5 17.3% under_13.5 82.7%
team_away
over_9.5 56.4% under_9.5 43.6% over_11.5 39.2%
under_11.5 60.8% over_13.5 25.0% under_13.5 75.0%
most
home 39.9% draw 6.5% away 53.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-0.5 39.9%
away_+0.5 60.2% home_+2.5 59.5% away_-2.5 40.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.3% no 81.7%
home
yes 6.1% no 93.9%
away
yes 13.0% no 87.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: FC Koln predictions · M'gladbach predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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