Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Dortmund72.2%
Win probability · fair 1.39
Top signals
Dortmund or drawVery likely89.1%Fair 1.12
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely82.5%Fair 1.21
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Model read
▾
Dortmund go into this Bundesliga meeting with Werder Bremen on 9 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 72%. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. • Serhou Guirassy drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. • Recent form reads W5 D0 L1 for Dortmund against W1 D1 L4 for Werder Bremen. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Dortmund, 2 draws and 0 for Werder Bremen at 2.4 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals60.8%@ 1.64
Both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87
Over 9.5 corners52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds
2-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.29
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.25
1-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.86
Model vs market
Dortmund
72.2%
Draw
17.0%
Werder Bremen
10.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely82.5%Fair 1.21
Over 2.5Likely60.8%Fair 1.64
BTTS · YesClose call53.6%Fair 1.87
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.5%Fair 1.90
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.7%Fair 3.06
Most cornersDortmund63.6%Werder Bremen26.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely69.9%Fair 1.43
Over 24.5 shotsClose call58.2%Fair 1.72
Over 26.5 shotsClose call46.0%Fair 2.18
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely34.3%Fair 2.91
Recent shot volume
Dortmund13.5 taken11.0 faced
Werder Bremen11.7 taken16.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Dortmund (3 games)
7.3 / 7.7
Werder Bremen (3 games)
3.3 / 8.3
Totals line guide
0.5·1.582.5%2.560.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
DortmundWWWWW
Werder BremenLLLWD
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 3 · 2 draws · Werder Bremen 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Serhou GuirassyDortmund · key player
To score45.6%2.19
1+ on target71.5%1.40
2+ shots76.1%1.31
Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.69
Niclas FüllkrugWerder Bremen · key player
To score13.7%7.30
1+ on target36.0%2.78
2+ shots28.7%3.48
Shots/90 2.17SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.3
Fabio SilvaDortmund · in form
To score22.6%4.42
1+ on target44.7%2.24
2+ shots39.7%2.52
Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.45
ChukiWerder Bremen · in form
To score10.4%9.62
1+ on target42.7%2.34
2+ shots36.5%2.74
Shots/90 2.09SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.18
Maximilian BeierDortmund · in form
To score25.4%3.94
1+ on target42.4%2.36
2+ shots48.4%2.07
Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.43
Justin NjinmahWerder Bremen · in form
To score11.4%8.77
1+ on target39.0%2.56
2+ shots47.9%2.09
Shots/90 2.94SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.22
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Dortmund win1.49
Draw5.12
Werder Bremen win7.39
Both teams to score1.87
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.65
Over 3.5 goals2.60
Over 4.5 goals4.78
Dortmund most1.49
Werder Bremen most7.39
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Dortmund most1.57
Werder Bremen most3.77
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.14
Over 4.5 cards3.60
Over 5.5 cards6.93
Dortmund most2.82
Werder Bremen most2.36
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.74
Over 9.5 SoT2.19
Dortmund most1.54
Werder Bremen most4.08
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.72
Over 26.5 shots2.18
Over 28.5 shots2.91
Dortmund most1.48
Werder Bremen most3.68
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.99
Over 22.5 fouls2.62
Over 24.5 fouls3.63
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
69.9%
Over 24.5
58.2%
Over 26.5
46.0%
Over 28.5
34.3%
Most: Dortmund
67.4%
Most: Werder Bremen
27.2%
Dortmund Over 13.2
58.1%
Werder Bremen Over 13.2
28.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
79.4%
Over 7.5
68.9%
Over 8.5
57.3%
Over 9.5
45.6%
Most: Dortmund
64.9%
Most: Werder Bremen
24.5%
Dortmund Over 4.2
62.8%
Werder Bremen Over 4.2
32.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
68.2%
Over 3.5
46.7%
Over 4.5
27.7%
Most: Dortmund
35.5%
Most: Werder Bremen
42.4%
Dortmund Over 1.8
49.8%
Werder Bremen Over 1.8
55.0%
Dortmund: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Serhou Guirassy
3.12
1.42
0.69
71.5%
76.1%
45.6%
Fabio Silva
2.4
1.04
0.45
44.7%
39.7%
22.6%
Maximilian Beier
2.39
0.81
0.43
42.4%
48.4%
25.4%
Ethan Nwaneri
2.42
0.75
0.35
26.1%
25.5%
13.2%
Felix Nmecha
1.33
0.37
0.19
24.6%
27.1%
13.5%
Werder Bremen: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Niclas Füllkrug
2.17
0.91
0.3
36.0%
28.7%
13.7%
Chuki
2.09
0.91
0.18
42.7%
36.5%
10.4%
Justin Njinmah
2.94
0.9
0.22
39.0%
47.9%
11.4%
Marco Grüll
1.98
0.67
0.28
33.4%
33.8%
15.6%
Mitchell Weiser
1.34
0.51
0.21
38.2%
36.0%
18.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Dortmund clean sheet
39.3%
Werder Bremen clean sheet
10.8%
Dortmund win to nil
34.5%
Werder Bremen win to nil
6.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
66.9%
draw
19.5%
away
13.5%
double_chance
1X
86.5%
12
80.5%
X2
33.1%
dnb
home
83.2%
away
16.8%
btts
yes
53.6%
no
46.4%
clean_sheet
home
40.4%
away
10.8%
win_to_nil
home
35.6%
away
6.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.9%
home_by_2
20.1%
home_by_3plus
23.9%
away_by_1
9.1%
away_by_2
3.4%
away_by_3plus
1.1%
correct_score
0-0
4.8%
0-1
3.5%
0-2
1.8%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
9.2%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
4.0%
1-3
1.2%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
4.4%
2-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
7.3%
3-2
3.3%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
4.5%
4-1
4.1%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
2.0%
5-1
1.8%
5-2
0.8%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.7%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
0.0%
p
10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.2%
under_0.5
4.8%
over_1.5
82.5%
under_1.5
17.5%
over_2.5
60.8%
under_2.5
39.2%
over_3.5
38.5%
under_3.5
61.5%
over_4.5
20.9%
under_4.5
79.1%
over_5.5
9.9%
under_5.5
90.1%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
89.2%
under_0.5
10.8%
over_1.5
65.3%
under_1.5
34.7%
over_2.5
38.6%
under_2.5
61.4%
team_away
over_0.5
59.6%
under_0.5
40.4%
over_1.5
23.0%
under_1.5
77.0%
over_2.5
6.4%
under_2.5
93.6%
most
home
66.9%
draw
19.5%
away
13.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
23.9%
away_+2.5
76.1%
home_-1.5
44.1%
away_+1.5
55.9%
home_-0.5
66.9%
away_+0.5
33.1%
home_+0.5
86.5%
away_-0.5
13.5%
home_+1.5
95.5%
away_-1.5
4.5%
home_+2.5
98.9%
away_-2.5
1.1%
total_exact
exact_0
4.8%
exact_1
12.7%
exact_2
21.8%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.5%
exact_5
11.0%
exact_6
5.8%
exact_7plus
4.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
56.9%
draw
33.9%
away
9.3%
total
over_0.5
74.4%
under_0.5
25.6%
over_1.5
39.5%
under_1.5
60.5%
over_2.5
15.7%
under_2.5
84.3%
btts
yes
15.9%
no
84.1%
total_exact
exact_0
25.6%
exact_1
34.9%
exact_2
23.8%
exact_3
10.8%
exact_4plus
5.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
54.0%
draw
29.2%
away
16.7%
total
over_0.5
84.7%
under_0.5
15.4%
over_1.5
55.9%
under_1.5
44.1%
over_2.5
28.9%
under_2.5
71.1%
btts
yes
32.0%
no
68.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
50.7%
H/D
4.7%
H/A
1.4%
D/H
18.3%
D/D
9.9%
D/A
5.7%
A/H
2.2%
A/D
2.5%
A/A
4.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.9%
under_7.5
23.2%
over_8.5
66.0%
under_8.5
34.0%
over_9.5
54.2%
under_9.5
45.8%
over_10.5
42.4%
under_10.5
57.6%
over_11.5
31.7%
under_11.5
68.4%
over_12.5
22.5%
under_12.5
77.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
80.6%
under_3.5
19.4%
over_4.5
67.4%
under_4.5
32.6%
over_5.5
52.8%
under_5.5
47.2%
team_away
over_3.5
56.4%
under_3.5
43.6%
over_4.5
39.0%
under_4.5
61.1%
over_5.5
24.6%
under_5.5
75.4%
most
home
63.8%
draw
9.6%
away
26.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
32.5%
away_+3.5
67.6%
home_-1.5
53.2%
away_+1.5
46.8%
home_-0.5
63.8%
away_+0.5
36.2%
home_+0.5
73.4%
away_-0.5
26.6%
home_+1.5
81.6%
away_-1.5
18.4%
home_+3.5
92.5%
away_-3.5
7.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
69.9%
under_22.5
30.1%
over_24.5
58.2%
under_24.5
41.8%
over_26.5
46.0%
under_26.5
54.0%
over_28.5
34.3%
under_28.5
65.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
80.1%
under_10.5
19.9%
over_12.5
66.0%
under_12.5
34.1%
over_14.5
50.1%
under_14.5
49.9%
team_away
over_10.5
54.6%
under_10.5
45.4%
over_12.5
36.6%
under_12.5
63.4%
over_14.5
22.1%
under_14.5
77.9%
most
home
67.5%
draw
5.4%
away
27.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
43.3%
away_+4.5
56.7%
home_-2.5
55.7%
away_+2.5
44.4%
home_-0.5
67.5%
away_+0.5
32.6%
home_+0.5
72.8%
away_-0.5
27.2%
home_+2.5
82.0%
away_-2.5
18.0%
home_+4.5
89.0%
away_-4.5
11.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
79.4%
under_6.5
20.6%
over_7.5
69.0%
under_7.5
31.1%
over_8.5
57.3%
under_8.5
42.7%
over_9.5
45.6%
under_9.5
54.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.3%
under_3.5
22.7%
over_4.5
62.8%
under_4.5
37.2%
over_5.5
47.6%
under_5.5
52.4%
team_away
over_3.5
50.6%
under_3.5
49.4%
over_4.5
32.9%
under_4.5
67.1%
over_5.5
19.5%
under_5.5
80.5%
most
home
64.9%
draw
10.6%
away
24.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
41.2%
away_+2.5
58.8%
home_-0.5
64.9%
away_+0.5
35.1%
home_+0.5
75.5%
away_-0.5
24.5%
home_+2.5
90.4%
away_-2.5
9.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
68.2%
under_2.5
31.8%
over_3.5
46.7%
under_3.5
53.3%
over_4.5
27.7%
under_4.5
72.3%
over_5.5
14.4%
under_5.5
85.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
49.8%
under_1.5
50.2%
over_2.5
23.6%
under_2.5
76.4%
team_away
over_1.5
55.0%
under_1.5
45.0%
over_2.5
28.1%
under_2.5
71.9%
most
home
35.4%
draw
22.2%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.7%
away_+1.5
82.3%
home_-0.5
35.4%
away_+0.5
64.6%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+1.5
77.2%
away_-1.5
22.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
50.3%
under_20.5
49.7%
over_22.5
38.2%
under_22.5
61.8%
over_24.5
27.6%
under_24.5
72.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
54.1%
under_9.5
45.9%
over_11.5
36.9%
under_11.5
63.1%
over_13.5
23.0%
under_13.5
77.0%
team_away
over_9.5
55.5%
under_9.5
44.5%
over_11.5
38.3%
under_11.5
61.7%
over_13.5
24.2%
under_13.5
75.8%
most
home
45.8%
draw
6.4%
away
47.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.8%
away_+3.5
72.2%
home_-0.5
45.8%
away_+0.5
54.3%
home_+2.5
64.7%
away_-2.5
35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
22.7%
no
77.4%
home
yes
14.2%
no
85.8%
away
yes
9.9%
no
90.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
Dortmund
Werder Bremen