Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Arsenal59.5%
Win probability · fair 1.68
Top signals
Arsenal or drawVery likely83.5%Fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.2%Fair 1.69
Model read
▾
"Arsenal or Leeds? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Arsenal go into this Premier League meeting with Leeds on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 60%. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. For shots markets, Bukayo Saka is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Arsenal, 0 draws and 0 for Leeds at 3.6 goals per match. Recent form reads W5 D0 L1 for Arsenal against W2 D3 L1 for Leeds. Team news worth noting: Arsenal have Saliba ruled out, White a doubt, Rice a doubt, Martinelli ruled out. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.6%@ 2.15
Draw or Leeds40.5%@ 2.47
Over 10.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals53.4%@ 1.87
Not both teams to score53.4%@ 1.87
Over 9.5 corners49.0%@ 2.04
Random finds
1-0 correct score13.0%@ 7.70
1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.53
2-0 correct score11.6%@ 8.64
Model vs market
Arsenal
59.5%
Draw
24.0%
Leeds
16.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.6%Fair 2.15
BTTS · YesClose call46.6%Fair 2.15
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.2%Fair 1.69
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.0%Fair 2.04
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.4%Fair 2.54
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.7%Fair 3.26
Most cornersArsenal60.1%Leeds30.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.6%Fair 1.60
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.9%Fair 1.96
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.5%Fair 2.53
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.0%Fair 3.44
Recent shot volume
Arsenal13.7 taken10.2 faced
Leeds12.3 taken14.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Arsenal (5 games)
6.2 / 6.8
Leeds (5 games)
6.4 / 5.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.6%2.546.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
ArsenalWWWWL
LeedsWDDWD
Last 5 meetings: Arsenal 5 · 0 draws · Leeds 0 · 3.6 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Bukayo SakaArsenal · key player
To score23.1%4.33
1+ on target58.3%1.72
2+ shots71.1%1.41
Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.33
Lukas NmechaLeeds · key player
To score15.4%6.49
1+ on target37.0%2.70
2+ shots25.8%3.88
Shots/90 3.06SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.52
Noni MaduekeArsenal · in form
To score10.3%9.71
1+ on target43.4%2.30
2+ shots48.4%2.07
Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.18
Dominic Calvert-LewinLeeds · in form
To score24.3%4.12
1+ on target58.9%1.70
2+ shots59.8%1.67
Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.35
Eberechi EzeArsenal · in form
To score19.1%5.24
1+ on target47.8%2.09
2+ shots64.8%1.54
Shots/90 3.13SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.3
Noah OkaforLeeds · in form
To score18.6%5.38
1+ on target37.9%2.64
2+ shots29.7%3.37
Shots/90 2.01SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.38
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Arsenal win1.73
Draw4.03
Leeds win5.77
Both teams to score2.14
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.15
Over 3.5 goals3.99
Arsenal most1.73
Leeds most5.77
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.97
Over 10.5 corners2.55
Arsenal most1.66
Leeds most3.32
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards1.99
Over 4.5 cards3.24
Over 5.5 cards6.00
Arsenal most3.50
Leeds most1.98
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.44
Over 7.5 SoT1.75
Over 8.5 SoT2.22
Over 9.5 SoT2.95
Arsenal most1.61
Leeds most3.79
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots1.96
Over 26.5 shots2.53
Over 28.5 shots3.44
Arsenal most1.51
Leeds most3.52
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.20
Over 24.5 fouls3.27
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
SalibaArsenalOut0% to play
WhiteArsenalDoubtful75% to play
RiceArsenalDoubtful75% to play
MartinelliArsenalOut0% to play
NwaneriArsenalOut0% to play
Fábio VieiraArsenalOut0% to play
NelsonArsenalOut0% to play
G.JesusArsenalOut0% to play
Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien TimberArsenalOut
WilsonLeedsOut0% to play
PerriLeedsOut0% to play
RodonLeedsOut0% to play
BornauwLeedsOut0% to play
GnontoLeedsOut0% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Jurriën TimberArsenal3.5%8.9 xG+xA in 4,742 min
Harry WilsonLeeds9.8%16.6 xG+xA in 4,013 min
Joe RodonLeeds1.4%2.4 xG+xA in 3,077 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.6%
Over 24.5
51.0%
Over 26.5
39.5%
Over 28.5
29.0%
Most: Arsenal
66.3%
Most: Leeds
28.4%
Arsenal Over 13.2
52.7%
Leeds Over 13.2
25.6%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.3%
Over 7.5
57.2%
Over 8.5
45.1%
Over 9.5
33.9%
Most: Arsenal
62.2%
Most: Leeds
26.4%
Arsenal Over 4.2
52.7%
Leeds Over 4.2
26.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
71.1%
Over 3.5
50.1%
Over 4.5
30.9%
Most: Arsenal
28.6%
Most: Leeds
50.5%
Arsenal Over 1.8
46.3%
Leeds Over 1.8
62.4%
Arsenal: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Bukayo Saka
3.14
1.1
0.33
58.3%
71.1%
23.1%
Noni Madueke
2.69
0.94
0.18
43.4%
48.4%
10.3%
Eberechi Eze
3.13
0.92
0.3
47.8%
64.8%
19.1%
Kai Havertz
2.51
0.92
0.39
51.4%
58.6%
26.4%
Viktor Gyokeres
2.17
0.87
0.55
44.0%
42.4%
30.7%
Leeds: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Lukas Nmecha
3.06
1.44
0.52
37.0%
25.8%
15.4%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
2.54
1.12
0.35
58.9%
59.8%
24.3%
Noah Okafor
2.01
0.88
0.38
37.9%
29.7%
18.6%
Brenden Aaronson
1.56
0.53
0.13
31.7%
30.8%
8.9%
Jean Négoce
1.57
0.48
0.2
20.8%
17.8%
9.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Arsenal clean sheet
43.4%
Leeds clean sheet
18.1%
Arsenal win to nil
34.9%
Leeds win to nil
9.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
57.8%
draw
24.8%
away
17.3%
double_chance
1X
82.7%
12
75.2%
X2
42.2%
dnb
home
77.0%
away
23.1%
btts
yes
46.6%
no
53.4%
clean_sheet
home
43.8%
away
18.1%
win_to_nil
home
35.3%
away
9.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
25.1%
home_by_2
18.1%
home_by_3plus
14.7%
away_by_1
11.8%
away_by_2
4.2%
away_by_3plus
1.3%
correct_score
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
2.7%
0-3
0.7%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
13.0%
1-1
11.7%
1-2
4.6%
1-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.0%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.5%
over_1.5
72.6%
under_1.5
27.4%
over_2.5
46.6%
under_2.5
53.4%
over_3.5
25.1%
under_3.5
74.9%
over_4.5
11.4%
under_4.5
88.6%
over_5.5
4.5%
under_5.5
95.5%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
81.9%
under_0.5
18.1%
over_1.5
51.0%
under_1.5
49.0%
over_2.5
24.6%
under_2.5
75.4%
team_away
over_0.5
56.2%
under_0.5
43.8%
over_1.5
20.1%
under_1.5
79.9%
over_2.5
5.2%
under_2.5
94.8%
most
home
57.8%
draw
24.8%
away
17.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.7%
away_+2.5
85.3%
home_-1.5
32.8%
away_+1.5
67.2%
home_-0.5
57.8%
away_+0.5
42.2%
home_+0.5
82.7%
away_-0.5
17.3%
home_+1.5
94.5%
away_-1.5
5.5%
home_+2.5
98.7%
away_-2.5
1.3%
total_exact
exact_0
8.5%
exact_1
18.9%
exact_2
26.0%
exact_3
21.5%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
6.9%
exact_6
2.9%
exact_7plus
1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.5%
draw
48.5%
away
19.0%
total
over_0.5
59.9%
under_0.5
40.1%
over_1.5
23.3%
under_1.5
76.7%
over_2.5
6.5%
under_2.5
93.5%
btts
yes
12.9%
no
87.1%
total_exact
exact_0
40.1%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
16.8%
exact_3
5.1%
exact_4plus
1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
52.6%
draw
33.2%
away
14.2%
total
over_0.5
78.2%
under_0.5
21.8%
over_1.5
45.0%
under_1.5
55.0%
over_2.5
19.7%
under_2.5
80.3%
btts
yes
23.0%
no
77.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
28.8%
H/D
3.0%
H/A
0.7%
D/H
25.5%
D/D
16.1%
D/A
6.9%
A/H
3.8%
A/D
5.2%
A/A
10.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
73.6%
under_7.5
26.4%
over_8.5
62.5%
under_8.5
37.5%
over_9.5
50.7%
under_9.5
49.3%
over_10.5
39.3%
under_10.5
60.7%
over_11.5
29.1%
under_11.5
70.9%
over_12.5
20.6%
under_12.5
79.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.4%
under_3.5
23.6%
over_4.5
62.5%
under_4.5
37.5%
over_5.5
48.2%
under_5.5
51.8%
team_away
over_3.5
55.8%
under_3.5
44.2%
over_4.5
39.1%
under_4.5
60.9%
over_5.5
25.4%
under_5.5
74.6%
most
home
60.3%
draw
9.6%
away
30.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
30.4%
away_+3.5
69.6%
home_-1.5
50.0%
away_+1.5
50.0%
home_-0.5
60.3%
away_+0.5
39.7%
home_+0.5
69.9%
away_-0.5
30.1%
home_+1.5
78.3%
away_-1.5
21.7%
home_+3.5
90.3%
away_-3.5
9.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.6%
under_22.5
37.4%
over_24.5
50.9%
under_24.5
49.1%
over_26.5
39.5%
under_26.5
60.5%
over_28.5
29.0%
under_28.5
71.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.8%
under_10.5
25.2%
over_12.5
60.3%
under_12.5
39.7%
over_14.5
45.2%
under_14.5
54.8%
team_away
over_10.5
49.2%
under_10.5
50.8%
over_12.5
32.6%
under_12.5
67.4%
over_14.5
19.7%
under_14.5
80.3%
most
home
66.3%
draw
5.3%
away
28.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
43.0%
away_+4.5
57.0%
home_-2.5
54.9%
away_+2.5
45.1%
home_-0.5
66.3%
away_+0.5
33.7%
home_+0.5
71.6%
away_-0.5
28.4%
home_+2.5
80.8%
away_-2.5
19.3%
home_+4.5
87.8%
away_-4.5
12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.3%
under_6.5
30.7%
over_7.5
57.2%
under_7.5
42.8%
over_8.5
45.1%
under_8.5
54.9%
over_9.5
34.0%
under_9.5
66.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.6%
under_3.5
31.4%
over_4.5
52.7%
under_4.5
47.3%
over_5.5
37.8%
under_5.5
62.2%
team_away
over_3.5
43.1%
under_3.5
56.9%
over_4.5
26.7%
under_4.5
73.3%
over_5.5
15.1%
under_5.5
84.9%
most
home
62.2%
draw
11.4%
away
26.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
37.6%
away_+2.5
62.4%
home_-0.5
62.2%
away_+0.5
37.8%
home_+0.5
73.6%
away_-0.5
26.4%
home_+2.5
89.7%
away_-2.5
10.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
71.1%
under_2.5
28.9%
over_3.5
50.1%
under_3.5
49.9%
over_4.5
30.9%
under_4.5
69.1%
over_5.5
16.7%
under_5.5
83.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
46.3%
under_1.5
53.7%
over_2.5
20.7%
under_2.5
79.3%
team_away
over_1.5
62.5%
under_1.5
37.6%
over_2.5
35.5%
under_2.5
64.5%
most
home
28.6%
draw
20.9%
away
50.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.3%
away_+1.5
86.7%
home_-0.5
28.6%
away_+0.5
71.4%
home_+0.5
49.5%
away_-0.5
50.5%
home_+1.5
70.1%
away_-1.5
29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
61.7%
under_20.5
38.3%
over_22.5
45.6%
under_22.5
54.4%
over_24.5
30.6%
under_24.5
69.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
61.4%
under_9.5
38.6%
over_11.5
38.3%
under_11.5
61.7%
over_13.5
19.8%
under_13.5
80.2%
team_away
over_9.5
69.7%
under_9.5
30.3%
over_11.5
47.5%
under_11.5
52.5%
over_13.5
27.2%
under_13.5
72.9%
most
home
39.5%
draw
8.1%
away
52.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
18.9%
away_+3.5
81.1%
home_-0.5
39.5%
away_+0.5
60.5%
home_+2.5
63.7%
away_-2.5
36.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
6.3%
no
93.8%
home
yes
1.7%
no
98.3%
away
yes
4.6%
no
95.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Arsenal
Leeds