A measured edge to West Brom: 43% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 20 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on West Brom than the market (21%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 47%. 3) Wolves are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Wolves against W3 D2 L1 for West Brom. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
West Brom win42.8%@ 2.34
Over 2.5 goals41.3%@ 2.42
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals58.7%@ 1.70
Wolves or draw57.2%@ 1.75
Over 9.5 corners55.1%@ 1.81
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.34
0-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.26
0-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.68
Model vs market
Wolves
28.2%-25.9%
Draw
29.0%+4.1%
West Brom
42.8%+21.8%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely68.4%Fair 1.46
Over 2.5Unlikely41.3%Fair 2.42
BTTS · YesClose call47.4%Fair 2.11
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.6%Fair 1.52
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.1%Fair 1.81
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.6%Fair 2.24
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Most cornersWolves58.4%West Brom31.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.4%Fair 1.60
Over 24.5 shotsClose call49.8%Fair 2.01
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.5%Fair 2.66
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.7%Fair 3.75
Recent shot volume
Wolves16.2 taken11.0 faced
West Brom10.5 taken9.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.568.4%2.541.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.568.4%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21).
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Wolves win1.763.55
Draw3.703.45
West Brom win4.332.34
Over 2.5 goals1.932.42
Under 2.5 goals1.931.70
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Wolves win3.55
Draw3.45
West Brom win2.34
Both teams to score2.11
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.46
Over 2.5 goals2.42
Over 3.5 goals4.81
Wolves most3.55
West Brom most2.34
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.22
Wolves most1.71
West Brom most3.19
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.31
Over 5.5 cards6.18
Wolves most3.81
West Brom most1.88
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.89
Over 8.5 SoT2.49
Over 9.5 SoT3.46
Wolves most1.93
West Brom most2.85
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.01
Over 26.5 shots2.66
Over 28.5 shots3.75
Wolves most1.61
West Brom most3.14
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.17
Over 24.5 fouls3.18
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.4%
Over 24.5
49.8%
Over 26.5
37.5%
Over 28.5
26.7%
Most: Wolves
62.2%
Most: West Brom
31.8%
Wolves Over 13.2
48.4%
West Brom Over 13.2
27.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
66.0%
Over 7.5
52.9%
Over 8.5
40.2%
Over 9.5
28.9%
Most: Wolves
51.8%
Most: West Brom
35.1%
Wolves Over 4.2
42.5%
West Brom Over 4.2
30.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
70.5%
Over 3.5
49.4%
Over 4.5
30.2%
Most: Wolves
26.3%
Most: West Brom
53.1%
Wolves Over 1.8
43.7%
West Brom Over 1.8
63.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Wolves clean sheet
26.8%
West Brom clean sheet
36.1%
Wolves win to nil
16.5%
West Brom win to nil
25.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
28.2%
draw
29.0%
away
42.8%
double_chance
1X
57.2%
12
71.0%
X2
71.8%
dnb
home
39.7%
away
60.3%
btts
yes
47.4%
no
52.6%
clean_sheet
home
26.8%
away
36.1%
win_to_nil
home
16.5%
away
25.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.5%
home_by_2
7.7%
home_by_3plus
3.1%
away_by_1
22.8%
away_by_2
12.8%
away_by_3plus
7.2%
correct_score
0-0
10.3%
0-1
12.1%
0-2
8.4%
0-3
3.7%
0-4
1.2%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
9.2%
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.5%
1-3
3.8%
1-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
5.0%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.4%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
1.7%
3-1
2.2%
3-2
1.5%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
4-1
0.6%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
89.7%
under_0.5
10.3%
over_1.5
68.4%
under_1.5
31.7%
over_2.5
41.3%
under_2.5
58.7%
over_3.5
20.8%
under_3.5
79.2%
over_4.5
8.8%
under_4.5
91.2%
over_5.5
3.2%
under_5.5
96.8%
odd_even
odd
48.2%
even
51.8%
team_home
over_0.5
63.9%
under_0.5
36.1%
over_1.5
27.1%
under_1.5
72.9%
over_2.5
8.4%
under_2.5
91.6%
team_away
over_0.5
73.2%
under_0.5
26.8%
over_1.5
37.9%
under_1.5
62.1%
over_2.5
14.7%
under_2.5
85.3%
most
home
28.2%
draw
29.0%
away
42.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
3.1%
away_+2.5
97.0%
home_-1.5
10.7%
away_+1.5
89.3%
home_-0.5
28.2%
away_+0.5
71.8%
home_+0.5
57.2%
away_-0.5
42.8%
home_+1.5
80.0%
away_-1.5
20.0%
home_+2.5
92.8%
away_-2.5
7.2%
total_exact
exact_0
10.3%
exact_1
21.3%
exact_2
27.0%
exact_3
20.5%
exact_4
12.0%
exact_5
5.6%
exact_6
2.2%
exact_7plus
1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.6%
draw
36.9%
away
26.5%
total
over_0.5
77.1%
under_0.5
22.9%
over_1.5
43.4%
under_1.5
56.6%
over_2.5
18.5%
under_2.5
81.5%
btts
yes
26.9%
no
73.1%
total_exact
exact_0
22.9%
exact_1
33.7%
exact_2
24.9%
exact_3
12.3%
exact_4plus
6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
43.3%
draw
35.9%
away
20.8%
total
over_0.5
77.4%
under_0.5
22.6%
over_1.5
43.8%
under_1.5
56.2%
over_2.5
18.8%
under_2.5
81.2%
btts
yes
25.8%
no
74.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
31.0%
H/D
4.3%
H/A
1.3%
D/H
16.0%
D/D
13.2%
D/A
7.7%
A/H
3.4%
A/D
5.9%
A/A
17.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.8%
under_7.5
21.2%
over_8.5
68.4%
under_8.5
31.6%
over_9.5
56.8%
under_9.5
43.2%
over_10.5
45.1%
under_10.5
54.9%
over_11.5
34.1%
under_11.5
65.9%
over_12.5
24.6%
under_12.5
75.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
79.5%
under_3.5
20.5%
over_4.5
65.7%
under_4.5
34.3%
over_5.5
50.8%
under_5.5
49.2%
team_away
over_3.5
62.7%
under_3.5
37.3%
over_4.5
45.4%
under_4.5
54.6%
over_5.5
30.2%
under_5.5
69.8%
most
home
58.5%
draw
10.1%
away
31.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.8%
away_+3.5
72.2%
home_-1.5
47.8%
away_+1.5
52.2%
home_-0.5
58.5%
away_+0.5
41.5%
home_+0.5
68.7%
away_-0.5
31.3%
home_+1.5
77.6%
away_-1.5
22.4%
home_+3.5
90.2%
away_-3.5
9.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.4%
under_22.5
37.6%
over_24.5
49.8%
under_24.5
50.2%
over_26.5
37.5%
under_26.5
62.5%
over_28.5
26.7%
under_28.5
73.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
73.1%
under_10.5
26.9%
over_12.5
56.8%
under_12.5
43.2%
over_14.5
40.3%
under_14.5
59.7%
team_away
over_10.5
52.9%
under_10.5
47.1%
over_12.5
34.8%
under_12.5
65.2%
over_14.5
20.5%
under_14.5
79.5%
most
home
62.2%
draw
5.9%
away
31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.1%
away_+4.5
62.9%
home_-2.5
49.6%
away_+2.5
50.4%
home_-0.5
62.2%
away_+0.5
37.8%
home_+0.5
68.2%
away_-0.5
31.8%
home_+2.5
78.6%
away_-2.5
21.4%
home_+4.5
86.7%
away_-4.5
13.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
66.0%
under_6.5
34.0%
over_7.5
52.9%
under_7.5
47.1%
over_8.5
40.2%
under_8.5
59.8%
over_9.5
28.9%
under_9.5
71.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
60.2%
under_3.5
39.8%
over_4.5
42.6%
under_4.5
57.5%
over_5.5
27.5%
under_5.5
72.5%
team_away
over_3.5
48.4%
under_3.5
51.7%
over_4.5
30.7%
under_4.5
69.3%
over_5.5
17.7%
under_5.5
82.3%
most
home
51.8%
draw
13.1%
away
35.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.7%
away_+2.5
73.3%
home_-0.5
51.8%
away_+0.5
48.2%
home_+0.5
64.9%
away_-0.5
35.1%
home_+2.5
85.4%
away_-2.5
14.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
70.5%
under_2.5
29.5%
over_3.5
49.4%
under_3.5
50.6%
over_4.5
30.2%
under_4.5
69.8%
over_5.5
16.2%
under_5.5
83.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
43.7%
under_1.5
56.4%
over_2.5
18.7%
under_2.5
81.3%
team_away
over_1.5
63.6%
under_1.5
36.4%
over_2.5
36.7%
under_2.5
63.3%
most
home
26.3%
draw
20.7%
away
53.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
11.8%
away_+1.5
88.2%
home_-0.5
26.3%
away_+0.5
73.7%
home_+0.5
46.9%
away_-0.5
53.1%
home_+1.5
68.0%
away_-1.5
32.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
61.6%
under_20.5
38.4%
over_22.5
46.0%
under_22.5
54.0%
over_24.5
31.4%
under_24.5
68.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
63.9%
under_9.5
36.1%
over_11.5
41.6%
under_11.5
58.4%
over_13.5
22.9%
under_13.5
77.1%
team_away
over_9.5
66.7%
under_9.5
33.3%
over_11.5
44.8%
under_11.5
55.2%
over_13.5
25.5%
under_13.5
74.5%
most
home
43.8%
draw
7.9%
away
48.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.7%
away_+3.5
77.3%
home_-0.5
43.8%
away_+0.5
56.2%
home_+2.5
67.0%
away_-2.5
33.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
5.6%
no
94.4%
home
yes
1.1%
no
98.9%
away
yes
4.5%
no
95.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Championship
Wolves