Estoril vs Casa Pia: model prediction
Primeira Liga
EstorilLLLDL
Casa PiaLLLDL
Estoril or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.
Win probability · fair 1.87
Top signals
Model read
Estoril go into this Primeira Liga meeting with Casa Pia on 20 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 54%. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 56% on Estoril, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Estoril, 3 draws and 1 for Casa Pia, averaging 2.0 goals a game. • Fatigue may matter, with Estoril 3 days shorter on recovery than Casa Pia. Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Estoril against W0 D1 L5 for Casa Pia. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
53.5%-2.1%
25.7%+0.2%
20.8%+1.9%
value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Estoril 1 · 3 draws · Casa Pia 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
EstorilCasa Pia16.7%33.3%
33.3%16.7%
16.7%16.7%
League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 55.6% | Over 24.5 | 43.4% | Over 26.5 | 32.1% | Over 28.5 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Estoril | 63.0% | Most: Casa Pia | 31.2% | ||||
| Estoril Over 13.2 | 44.8% | Casa Pia Over 13.2 | 23.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.7% | Over 7.5 | 58.1% | Over 8.5 | 45.2% | Over 9.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Estoril | 55.2% | Most: Casa Pia | 32.2% | ||||
| Estoril Over 4.2 | 48.4% | Casa Pia Over 4.2 | 31.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 82.3% | Over 3.5 | 65.2% | Over 4.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Estoril | 37.3% | Most: Casa Pia | 43.3% | ||
| Estoril Over 1.8 | 63.3% | Casa Pia Over 1.8 | 67.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Estoril clean sheet | 39.0% |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 19.2% |
| Estoril win to nil | 30.8% |
| Casa Pia win to nil | 11.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 53.5% | draw | 25.7% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.2% | 12 | 74.3% | X2 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 72.0% | away | 28.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.7% | no | 50.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.2% | away | 19.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 31.1% | away | 11.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 16.7% | home_by_3plus | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.5% | away_by_2 | 5.4% | away_by_3plus | 1.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 6.5% | 0-2 | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | 1-1 | 12.2% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 1.7% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% | 3-1 | 5.3% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.3% | 4-1 | 2.2% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.8% | 5-1 | 0.7% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.5% | over_2.5 | 47.8% | under_2.5 | 52.2% |
| over_3.5 | 26.1% | under_3.5 | 73.9% | over_4.5 | 12.0% |
| under_4.5 | 88.0% | over_5.5 | 4.8% | under_5.5 | 95.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 80.8% | under_0.5 | 19.2% | over_1.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.9% | over_2.5 | 22.9% | under_2.5 | 77.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.8% | under_0.5 | 39.2% | over_1.5 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.9% | over_2.5 | 6.9% | under_2.5 | 93.1% |
most
| home | 53.5% | draw | 25.7% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.6% | away_+2.5 | 87.4% | home_-1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 70.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.5% | away_+0.5 | 46.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.2% | away_-0.5 | 20.8% | home_+1.5 | 92.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.3% | home_+2.5 | 98.1% | away_-2.5 | 1.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.3% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.0% | exact_5 | 7.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.9% | draw | 41.2% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.8% | under_0.5 | 29.2% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.2% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
btts
| yes | 20.8% | no | 79.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.2% | exact_1 | 35.9% | exact_2 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.1% | exact_4plus | 3.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.2% | draw | 35.9% | away | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.1% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 19.9% | no | 80.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.3% | H/D | 2.9% | H/A | 0.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.7% | D/D | 14.8% | D/A | 5.8% |
| A/H | 4.1% | A/D | 6.5% | A/A | 14.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.3% | under_7.5 | 27.7% | over_8.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.5% | over_9.5 | 50.3% | under_9.5 | 49.7% |
| over_10.5 | 39.5% | under_10.5 | 60.5% | over_11.5 | 29.8% |
| under_11.5 | 70.2% | over_12.5 | 21.7% | under_12.5 | 78.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.8% | over_5.5 | 43.2% | under_5.5 | 56.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.7% | over_5.5 | 30.6% | under_5.5 | 69.4% |
most
| home | 53.6% | draw | 9.9% | away | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.4% | away_+3.5 | 74.6% | home_-1.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.6% | away_+0.5 | 46.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.4% | away_-0.5 | 36.6% | home_+1.5 | 72.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.5% | home_+3.5 | 86.4% | away_-3.5 | 13.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.6% | under_22.5 | 44.4% | over_24.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.6% | over_26.5 | 32.1% | under_26.5 | 67.9% |
| over_28.5 | 22.5% | under_28.5 | 77.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.9% | under_10.5 | 31.1% | over_12.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.2% | over_14.5 | 37.3% | under_14.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.8% | under_10.5 | 53.3% | over_12.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.0% | over_14.5 | 17.4% | under_14.5 | 82.6% |
most
| home | 63.0% | draw | 5.8% | away | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.5% | away_+4.5 | 61.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.2% | home_-0.5 | 63.0% | away_+0.5 | 37.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.8% | away_-0.5 | 31.2% | home_+2.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.8% | away_-4.5 | 13.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.7% | under_6.5 | 29.3% | over_7.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 41.9% | over_8.5 | 45.2% | under_8.5 | 54.8% |
| over_9.5 | 33.4% | under_9.5 | 66.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.8% | under_3.5 | 34.2% | over_4.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.6% | over_5.5 | 32.6% | under_5.5 | 67.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.8% | under_3.5 | 50.2% | over_4.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.2% | over_5.5 | 18.4% | under_5.5 | 81.6% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 12.6% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.9% | away_+2.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.8% | home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.9% | away_-2.5 | 13.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 82.3% | under_2.5 | 17.7% | over_3.5 | 65.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 34.8% | over_4.5 | 46.2% | under_4.5 | 53.8% |
| over_5.5 | 29.2% | under_5.5 | 70.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.3% | under_1.5 | 36.7% | over_2.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.3% | under_1.5 | 32.7% | over_2.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.1% |
most
| home | 37.3% | draw | 19.4% | away | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.8% | away_+1.5 | 79.2% | home_-0.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.7% | home_+0.5 | 56.7% | away_-0.5 | 43.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.4% | away_-1.5 | 25.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.5% | under_20.5 | 15.5% | over_22.5 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.1% | over_24.5 | 63.3% | under_24.5 | 36.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.9% | under_9.5 | 20.1% | over_11.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.5% | over_13.5 | 45.6% | under_13.5 | 54.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.6% | under_9.5 | 18.4% | over_11.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.0% | over_13.5 | 48.3% | under_13.5 | 51.7% |
most
| home | 44.9% | draw | 6.4% | away | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.1% | away_+3.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.1% | home_+2.5 | 63.8% | away_-2.5 | 36.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.6% | no | 88.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Estoril predictions · Casa Pia predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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