Estrela vs Academico Viseu prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Estrela vs Academico Viseu: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Estrela

DWDWD

Sun, 20 Sep 202620/915:30UK
Academico Viseu

LDLWW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Estrela or draw

57%

Both teams to score

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.009 <= 0.

Model pick

Estrela49.4%

Win probability · fair 2.02

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely78.9%Fair 1.27
Estrela or drawLikely74.4%Fair 1.34
Both teams to scoreClose call57.2%Fair 1.75

Model read

Our engine prices Estrela at 49% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Estrela than the market (45%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. 3) Academico Viseu are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Estrela W2 D4 L0, Academico Viseu W2 D2 L2. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.009 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.5%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners36.2%@ 2.76
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80
Over 2.5 goals55.1%@ 1.81
Draw or Academico Viseu50.6%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.49
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.42
1-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.11

Model vs market

Estrela

49.4%+4.4%

Draw

25.0%-3.0%

Academico

25.6%-1.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.009 <= 0

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.9%Fair 1.27
Over 2.5Close call55.1%Fair 1.81
BTTS · YesClose call57.2%Fair 1.75

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.6%Fair 1.80
Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.5%Fair 2.20
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.2%Fair 2.76
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.0%Fair 3.57
Most cornersEstrela48.8%Academico Viseu40.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call58.2%Fair 1.72
Over 24.5 shotsClose call46.0%Fair 2.17
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.6%Fair 2.89
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.7%Fair 4.06

Recent shot volume

Estrela12.7 taken12.2 faced
Academico Viseu9.5 taken17.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.9%2.555.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.009 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

EstrelaDWDWD
Academico ViseuLDLWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EstrelaAcademico Viseu
League position#8 of 24#6 of 24
Record W-D-L2-4-03-2-2
Current streakD1W3
Points per game1.671.57
Record, home vs away1-2-01-2-0
PPG, home vs away1.671.67
Goals scored per game2.331.29
Goals conceded per game2.001.43
Scored, home vs away2.001.67
Conceded, home vs away1.671.33
1st half goals per game0.500.50
2nd half goals per game1.830.67
Corners won per game3.82.8
Cards per game2.52.8
Fouls per game11.513.3
Red cards this season00
Shots per game12.79.5
Shots faced per game12.217.8
Shots on target per game5.03.0
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%71.4%

BTTS rate

100.0%57.1%

Clean sheets

0.0%14.3%

Rates this season:EstrelaAcademico Viseu

League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Estrela win2.102.02
Draw3.304.00
Academico Viseu win3.403.91
Over 2.5 goals2.081.81
Under 2.5 goals1.732.23

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Estrela win2.02
Draw4.00
Academico Viseu win3.91
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.06
Estrela most2.02
Academico Viseu most3.91

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.16
Over 10.5 corners2.80
Estrela most2.04
Academico Viseu most2.46

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.42
Over 4.5 cards1.92
Over 5.5 cards2.90
Estrela most2.72
Academico Viseu most2.25

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.67
Over 8.5 SoT2.12
Over 9.5 SoT2.85
Estrela most2.03
Academico Viseu most2.64

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.17
Over 26.5 shots2.89
Over 28.5 shots4.06
Estrela most1.69
Academico Viseu most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.1% Over 24.5 46.0% Over 26.5 34.6% Over 28.5 24.7%
Most: Estrela 59.2% Most: Academico Viseu 34.9%
Estrela Over 13.2 44.1% Academico Viseu Over 13.2 27.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.2% Over 7.5 59.9% Over 8.5 47.1% Over 9.5 35.1%
Most: Estrela 49.2% Most: Academico Viseu 37.9%
Estrela Over 4.2 45.6% Academico Viseu Over 4.2 37.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.5% Over 3.5 70.2% Over 4.5 52.0%
Most: Estrela 36.7% Most: Academico Viseu 44.5%
Estrela Over 1.8 66.4% Academico Viseu Over 1.8 71.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Estrela clean sheet 30.7%
Academico Viseu clean sheet 18.0%
Estrela win to nil 24.5%
Academico Viseu win to nil 11.9%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.4% draw 25.0% away 25.6%
double_chance
1X 74.4% 12 75.0% X2 50.6%
dnb
home 65.9% away 34.1%
btts
yes 57.2% no 42.9%
clean_sheet
home 30.9% away 18.1%
win_to_nil
home 24.8% away 11.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.4% home_by_2 15.2% home_by_3plus 11.8%
away_by_1 15.2% away_by_2 7.2% away_by_3plus 3.3%
correct_score
0-0 6.2% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.0% 1-1 11.8% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 5.5% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.2% over_1.5 78.9%
under_1.5 21.2% over_2.5 55.1% under_2.5 45.0%
over_3.5 32.7% under_3.5 67.3% over_4.5 16.6%
under_4.5 83.4% over_5.5 7.3% under_5.5 92.7%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 81.9% under_0.5 18.1% over_1.5 51.0%
under_1.5 49.0% over_2.5 24.6% under_2.5 75.4%
team_away
over_0.5 69.1% under_0.5 30.9% over_1.5 32.8%
under_1.5 67.2% over_2.5 11.5% under_2.5 88.5%
most
home 49.4% draw 25.0% away 25.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.8% away_+2.5 88.2% home_-1.5 27.0%
away_+1.5 73.0% home_-0.5 49.4% away_+0.5 50.6%
home_+0.5 74.4% away_-0.5 25.6% home_+1.5 89.6%
away_-1.5 10.4% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.3%
total_exact
exact_0 6.2% exact_1 15.0% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.1% exact_5 9.3%
exact_6 4.5% exact_7plus 2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.3% draw 41.2% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 71.0% under_0.5 29.0% over_1.5 35.0%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.8% under_2.5 87.2%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
total_exact
exact_0 29.0% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.2%
exact_3 9.2% exact_4plus 3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 34.4% away 31.5%
total
over_0.5 81.1% under_0.5 18.9% over_1.5 49.7%
under_1.5 50.3% over_2.5 23.4% under_2.5 76.6%
btts
yes 32.0% no 68.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.4% H/D 5.4% H/A 2.5%
D/H 14.1% D/D 14.2% D/A 13.0%
A/H 2.6% A/D 5.1% A/A 19.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.1% under_7.5 30.9% over_8.5 57.8%
under_8.5 42.2% over_9.5 46.4% under_9.5 53.6%
over_10.5 35.7% under_10.5 64.3% over_11.5 26.4%
under_11.5 73.6% over_12.5 18.8% under_12.5 81.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.8% under_3.5 33.2% over_4.5 51.6%
under_4.5 48.4% over_5.5 37.5% under_5.5 62.5%
team_away
over_3.5 61.1% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 45.3%
under_4.5 54.7% over_5.5 31.4% under_5.5 68.6%
most
home 49.0% draw 10.3% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.3% away_+3.5 78.7% home_-1.5 38.8%
away_+1.5 61.2% home_-0.5 49.0% away_+0.5 51.0%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+1.5 69.0%
away_-1.5 31.0% home_+3.5 84.3% away_-3.5 15.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.2% under_22.5 41.9% over_24.5 46.0%
under_24.5 54.0% over_26.5 34.6% under_26.5 65.4%
over_28.5 24.7% under_28.5 75.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.3% under_10.5 31.7% over_12.5 52.0%
under_12.5 48.0% over_14.5 36.5% under_14.5 63.5%
team_away
over_10.5 51.6% under_10.5 48.4% over_12.5 34.5%
under_12.5 65.5% over_14.5 21.0% under_14.5 79.0%
most
home 59.2% draw 5.9% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.0% away_+4.5 65.0% home_-2.5 47.0%
away_+2.5 53.0% home_-0.5 59.2% away_+0.5 40.8%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.2% home_+4.5 84.3% away_-4.5 15.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.2% under_6.5 27.8% over_7.5 59.9%
under_7.5 40.1% over_8.5 47.1% under_8.5 52.9%
over_9.5 35.1% under_9.5 64.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 45.6%
under_4.5 54.4% over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
team_away
over_3.5 55.5% under_3.5 44.5% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
most
home 49.2% draw 12.9% away 37.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.2% away_+2.5 74.8% home_-0.5 49.2%
away_+0.5 50.8% home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 37.9%
home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.5% under_2.5 14.5% over_3.5 70.2%
under_3.5 29.8% over_4.5 52.0% under_4.5 48.0%
over_5.5 34.5% under_5.5 65.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 66.4% under_1.5 33.6% over_2.5 39.8%
under_2.5 60.2%
team_away
over_1.5 71.2% under_1.5 28.8% over_2.5 45.6%
under_2.5 54.4%
most
home 36.8% draw 18.7% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+0.5 55.5% away_-0.5 44.5%
home_+1.5 72.9% away_-1.5 27.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.2% under_20.5 13.8% over_22.5 77.3%
under_22.5 22.8% over_24.5 66.1% under_24.5 33.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.3% under_9.5 17.7% over_11.5 67.0%
under_11.5 33.0% over_13.5 49.5% under_13.5 50.5%
team_away
over_9.5 81.9% under_9.5 18.1% over_11.5 66.4%
under_11.5 33.6% over_13.5 48.8% under_13.5 51.2%
most
home 47.3% draw 6.3% away 46.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.3% away_+3.5 70.7% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 65.9% away_-2.5 34.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.8% no 83.2%
home
yes 11.8% no 88.2%
away
yes 5.7% no 94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Estrela predictions · Academico Viseu predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaEstrelaAcademico ViseuTrack record