Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Feyenoord61.8%
Win probability · fair 1.62
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely87.7%Fair 1.14
Feyenoord or drawVery likely81.5%Fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goalsLikely69.4%Fair 1.44
Model read
▾
Feyenoord go into this Eredivisie meeting with Utrecht on 20 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 62%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 69% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. The recent series reads 4 wins for Feyenoord, 0 draws and 1 for Utrecht over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. The run in: Feyenoord arrive W4 D2 L0, Utrecht W1 D2 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Draw or Utrecht38.1%@ 2.62
Over 11.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners54.4%@ 1.84
Random finds
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.57
1-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.83
2-0 correct score7.7%@ 13.04
Model vs market
Feyenoord
61.8%
Draw
19.7%
Utrecht
18.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely87.7%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5Likely69.4%Fair 1.44
BTTS · YesLikely64.5%Fair 1.55
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.4%Fair 1.84
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Most cornersFeyenoord58.4%Utrecht31.9%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.7%Fair 1.34
Over 24.5 shotsLikely64.6%Fair 1.55
Over 26.5 shotsClose call53.6%Fair 1.86
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely42.6%Fair 2.35
Recent shot volume
Feyenoord22.2 taken10.2 faced
Utrecht11.7 taken17.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.587.7%2.569.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.569.4%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
FeyenoordDWDWW
UtrechtLDLDW
Last 5 meetings: Feyenoord 4 · 0 draws · Utrecht 1 · 3.4 goals/game.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Feyenoord win1.62
Draw5.07
Utrecht win5.43
Both teams to score1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.44
Over 3.5 goals2.08
Over 4.5 goals3.44
Feyenoord most1.62
Utrecht most5.43
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.19
Feyenoord most1.71
Utrecht most3.13
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.81
Over 3.5 cards3.01
Over 4.5 cards5.81
Over 5.5 cards12.82
Feyenoord most3.66
Utrecht most2.04
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.48
Over 9.5 SoT1.75
Feyenoord most1.75
Utrecht most3.08
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.34
Over 24.5 shots1.55
Over 26.5 shots1.86
Over 28.5 shots2.35
Feyenoord most1.60
Utrecht most3.08
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.73
Over 22.5 fouls2.34
Over 24.5 fouls3.45
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
74.7%
Over 24.5
64.6%
Over 26.5
53.6%
Over 28.5
42.6%
Most: Feyenoord
62.4%
Most: Utrecht
32.4%
Feyenoord Over 13.2
59.8%
Utrecht Over 13.2
38.0%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.6%
Over 7.5
77.5%
Over 8.5
67.8%
Over 9.5
57.2%
Most: Feyenoord
57.1%
Most: Utrecht
32.5%
Feyenoord Over 4.2
64.8%
Utrecht Over 4.2
47.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
55.2%
Over 3.5
33.2%
Over 4.5
17.2%
Most: Feyenoord
27.3%
Most: Utrecht
48.9%
Feyenoord Over 1.8
33.8%
Utrecht Over 1.8
50.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Feyenoord clean sheet
28.2%
Utrecht clean sheet
9.5%
Feyenoord win to nil
25.0%
Utrecht win to nil
6.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
61.8%
draw
19.7%
away
18.4%
double_chance
1X
81.6%
12
80.3%
X2
38.2%
dnb
home
77.0%
away
23.0%
btts
yes
64.5%
no
35.5%
clean_sheet
home
29.1%
away
9.5%
win_to_nil
home
25.9%
away
6.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.4%
home_by_2
18.4%
home_by_3plus
22.1%
away_by_1
11.1%
away_by_2
5.1%
away_by_3plus
2.3%
correct_score
0-0
3.2%
0-1
3.0%
0-2
2.1%
0-3
0.9%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
6.1%
1-1
8.5%
1-2
5.0%
1-3
2.0%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
5.8%
2-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
7.4%
3-2
4.6%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
4.4%
4-2
2.7%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.7%
5-1
2.1%
5-2
1.3%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.0%
other
3.5%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
100.0%
p
9.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
96.8%
under_0.5
3.2%
over_1.5
87.7%
under_1.5
12.3%
over_2.5
69.4%
under_2.5
30.6%
over_3.5
48.1%
under_3.5
51.9%
over_4.5
29.1%
under_4.5
70.9%
over_5.5
15.4%
under_5.5
84.6%
odd_even
odd
49.2%
even
50.8%
team_home
over_0.5
90.5%
under_0.5
9.5%
over_1.5
68.1%
under_1.5
32.0%
over_2.5
41.7%
under_2.5
58.3%
team_away
over_0.5
70.9%
under_0.5
29.1%
over_1.5
34.9%
under_1.5
65.1%
over_2.5
12.8%
under_2.5
87.2%
most
home
61.8%
draw
19.7%
away
18.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.1%
away_+2.5
78.0%
home_-1.5
40.4%
away_+1.5
59.6%
home_-0.5
61.8%
away_+0.5
38.2%
home_+0.5
81.6%
away_-0.5
18.4%
home_+1.5
92.6%
away_-1.5
7.4%
home_+2.5
97.7%
away_-2.5
2.3%
total_exact
exact_0
3.2%
exact_1
9.2%
exact_2
18.2%
exact_3
21.3%
exact_4
19.1%
exact_5
13.7%
exact_6
8.2%
exact_7plus
7.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.7%
draw
36.2%
away
17.1%
total
over_0.5
75.7%
under_0.5
24.3%
over_1.5
41.3%
under_1.5
58.7%
over_2.5
17.0%
under_2.5
83.0%
btts
yes
22.6%
no
77.4%
total_exact
exact_0
24.3%
exact_1
34.4%
exact_2
24.3%
exact_3
11.5%
exact_4plus
5.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
51.9%
draw
27.2%
away
20.9%
total
over_0.5
89.1%
under_0.5
10.9%
over_1.5
64.9%
under_1.5
35.1%
over_2.5
38.1%
under_2.5
61.9%
btts
yes
41.5%
no
58.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
39.8%
H/D
4.9%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
18.8%
D/D
9.8%
D/A
7.6%
A/H
3.8%
A/D
4.1%
A/A
9.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.7%
under_7.5
21.3%
over_8.5
68.5%
under_8.5
31.5%
over_9.5
57.1%
under_9.5
42.9%
over_10.5
45.6%
under_10.5
54.4%
over_11.5
34.8%
under_11.5
65.2%
over_12.5
25.4%
under_12.5
74.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.5%
under_3.5
21.5%
over_4.5
65.3%
under_4.5
34.7%
over_5.5
51.1%
under_5.5
48.9%
team_away
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
44.9%
under_4.5
55.1%
over_5.5
30.5%
under_5.5
69.5%
most
home
58.6%
draw
9.4%
away
32.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.8%
away_+3.5
70.2%
home_-1.5
48.7%
away_+1.5
51.3%
home_-0.5
58.6%
away_+0.5
41.4%
home_+0.5
68.1%
away_-0.5
32.0%
home_+1.5
76.4%
away_-1.5
23.6%
home_+3.5
88.9%
away_-3.5
11.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
74.7%
under_22.5
25.3%
over_24.5
64.6%
under_24.5
35.4%
over_26.5
53.6%
under_26.5
46.4%
over_28.5
42.6%
under_28.5
57.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.9%
under_10.5
20.2%
over_12.5
66.9%
under_12.5
33.1%
over_14.5
52.5%
under_14.5
47.5%
team_away
over_10.5
62.0%
under_10.5
38.0%
over_12.5
45.6%
under_12.5
54.4%
over_14.5
31.0%
under_14.5
69.0%
most
home
62.4%
draw
5.2%
away
32.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.2%
away_+4.5
59.8%
home_-2.5
51.3%
away_+2.5
48.7%
home_-0.5
62.4%
away_+0.5
37.6%
home_+0.5
67.6%
away_-0.5
32.4%
home_+2.5
76.9%
away_-2.5
23.1%
home_+4.5
84.5%
away_-4.5
15.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.6%
under_6.5
14.4%
over_7.5
77.5%
under_7.5
22.5%
over_8.5
67.8%
under_8.5
32.2%
over_9.5
57.2%
under_9.5
42.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.4%
under_3.5
21.6%
over_4.5
64.8%
under_4.5
35.2%
over_5.5
50.4%
under_5.5
49.6%
team_away
over_3.5
64.2%
under_3.5
35.8%
over_4.5
47.5%
under_4.5
52.5%
over_5.5
32.7%
under_5.5
67.3%
most
home
57.1%
draw
10.4%
away
32.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
35.7%
away_+2.5
64.3%
home_-0.5
57.1%
away_+0.5
42.9%
home_+0.5
67.5%
away_-0.5
32.5%
home_+2.5
84.2%
away_-2.5
15.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
55.2%
under_2.5
44.8%
over_3.5
33.2%
under_3.5
66.8%
over_4.5
17.2%
under_4.5
82.8%
over_5.5
7.8%
under_5.5
92.2%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
33.8%
under_1.5
66.2%
over_2.5
12.4%
under_2.5
87.6%
team_away
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
24.5%
under_2.5
75.5%
most
home
27.3%
draw
23.8%
away
48.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
11.3%
away_+1.5
88.8%
home_-0.5
27.3%
away_+0.5
72.7%
home_+0.5
51.1%
away_-0.5
48.9%
home_+1.5
73.5%
away_-1.5
26.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
57.9%
under_20.5
42.1%
over_22.5
42.7%
under_22.5
57.3%
over_24.5
29.0%
under_24.5
71.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
48.6%
under_9.5
51.4%
over_11.5
27.6%
under_11.5
72.4%
over_13.5
13.2%
under_13.5
86.8%
team_away
over_9.5
73.8%
under_9.5
26.2%
over_11.5
54.1%
under_11.5
45.9%
over_13.5
34.6%
under_13.5
65.4%
most
home
28.0%
draw
6.9%
away
65.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
12.2%
away_+3.5
87.8%
home_-0.5
28.0%
away_+0.5
72.0%
home_+2.5
50.1%
away_-2.5
50.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
15.0%
no
85.0%
home
yes
6.4%
no
93.6%
away
yes
9.3%
no
90.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Feyenoord
Utrecht