Willem II vs For Sittard: model prediction
Eredivisie
Willem IILDLDL
For SittardWLWWL
Over 1.5 goals
Both teams to score
Draw or For Sittard
Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.028 <= 0.03.
Win probability · fair 2.48
Top signals
Model read
Little between these two in the data. For Sittard at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 38%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 65%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Willem II, 2 draws and 2 for For Sittard, averaging 1.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Willem II against W3 D1 L2 for For Sittard. Schedule edge: For Sittard have had 3 more days of rest than Willem II. Willem II are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.028 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
35.7%-1.8%
24.1%-1.0%
40.3%+2.8%
value_gap +0.028 <= 0.03
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.028 <= 0.03.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · For Sittard 2 · 1.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Willem IIFor Sittard83.3%83.3%
83.3%83.3%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 3.92 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 80% · BTTS in 70%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 72.9% | Over 24.5 | 62.5% | Over 26.5 | 51.4% | Over 28.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Willem II | 59.3% | Most: For Sittard | 35.4% | ||||
| Willem II Over 13.2 | 56.1% | For Sittard Over 13.2 | 38.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.8% | Over 7.5 | 73.7% | Over 8.5 | 63.2% | Over 9.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Willem II | 44.6% | Most: For Sittard | 44.1% | ||||
| Willem II Over 4.2 | 53.4% | For Sittard Over 4.2 | 53.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | Over 3.5 | 31.6% | Over 4.5 | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Willem II | 27.9% | Most: For Sittard | 47.9% | ||
| Willem II Over 1.8 | 33.3% | For Sittard Over 1.8 | 48.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Willem II clean sheet | 18.3% |
|---|---|
| For Sittard clean sheet | 20.3% |
| Willem II win to nil | 14.0% |
| For Sittard win to nil | 16.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 35.7% | draw | 24.1% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 59.7% | 12 | 75.9% | X2 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 47.0% | away | 53.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 65.4% | no | 34.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 18.4% | away | 20.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.1% | away | 16.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.0% | home_by_2 | 10.7% | home_by_3plus | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.3% | away_by_2 | 12.2% | away_by_3plus | 8.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.3% | 0-1 | 5.9% | 0-2 | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.3% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 5.5% | 1-1 | 10.6% | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 4.8% | 1-4 | 2.1% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 4.7% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 6.8% |
| 2-3 | 3.8% | 2-4 | 1.6% | 2-5 | 0.5% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 4.2% | 3-2 | 3.6% |
| 3-3 | 2.0% | 3-4 | 0.9% | 3-5 | 0.3% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 1.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.3% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.7% | under_0.5 | 4.3% | over_1.5 | 84.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.6% | over_2.5 | 63.6% | under_2.5 | 36.4% |
| over_3.5 | 41.5% | under_3.5 | 58.5% | over_4.5 | 23.4% |
| under_4.5 | 76.6% | over_5.5 | 11.5% | under_5.5 | 88.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.5% | under_0.5 | 20.5% | over_1.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.0% | over_2.5 | 21.3% | under_2.5 | 78.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 81.6% | under_0.5 | 18.4% | over_1.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.5% | over_2.5 | 24.1% | under_2.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 35.7% | draw | 24.1% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.0% | away_+2.5 | 93.0% | home_-1.5 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 35.7% | away_+0.5 | 64.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% | home_+1.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.0% | home_+2.5 | 91.2% | away_-2.5 | 8.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.3% | exact_1 | 11.4% | exact_2 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 18.1% | exact_5 | 11.9% |
| exact_6 | 6.5% | exact_7plus | 5.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.5% | draw | 37.4% | away | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.9% | under_0.5 | 25.1% | over_1.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.8% | over_2.5 | 16.2% | under_2.5 | 83.8% |
btts
| yes | 23.0% | no | 77.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.1% | exact_1 | 34.7% | exact_2 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.1% | exact_4plus | 5.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.3% | draw | 30.4% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 87.1% | under_0.5 | 12.9% | over_1.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 39.3% | over_2.5 | 33.6% | under_2.5 | 66.4% |
btts
| yes | 41.0% | no | 59.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 13.8% | H/D | 3.6% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.2% | D/D | 11.4% | D/A | 12.8% |
| A/H | 4.2% | A/D | 7.2% | A/A | 31.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.2% | under_7.5 | 21.8% | over_8.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.2% | over_9.5 | 56.3% | under_9.5 | 43.7% |
| over_10.5 | 44.8% | under_10.5 | 55.2% | over_11.5 | 34.0% |
| under_11.5 | 66.0% | over_12.5 | 24.7% | under_12.5 | 75.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.1% | under_3.5 | 21.9% | over_4.5 | 64.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.3% | over_5.5 | 50.4% | under_5.5 | 49.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.1% | under_3.5 | 38.9% | over_4.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.5% | over_5.5 | 30.2% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 9.5% | away | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.5% | away_+3.5 | 70.5% | home_-1.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% | away_+0.5 | 41.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.9% | away_-0.5 | 32.1% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.9% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 72.9% | under_22.5 | 27.1% | over_24.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 37.5% | over_26.5 | 51.4% | under_26.5 | 48.6% |
| over_28.5 | 40.5% | under_28.5 | 59.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.2% | under_10.5 | 22.8% | over_12.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 36.5% | over_14.5 | 48.8% | under_14.5 | 51.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.7% | under_10.5 | 37.3% | over_12.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.5% | over_14.5 | 31.8% | under_14.5 | 68.2% |
most
| home | 59.3% | draw | 5.4% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.0% | away_+4.5 | 63.0% | home_-2.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.9% | home_-0.5 | 59.3% | away_+0.5 | 40.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+2.5 | 74.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.5% | home_+4.5 | 82.6% | away_-4.5 | 17.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.8% | under_6.5 | 17.2% | over_7.5 | 73.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.3% | over_8.5 | 63.2% | under_8.5 | 36.8% |
| over_9.5 | 52.2% | under_9.5 | 47.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.3% | under_3.5 | 30.8% | over_4.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.6% | over_5.5 | 38.4% | under_5.5 | 61.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 69.0% | under_3.5 | 31.0% | over_4.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.9% | over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
most
| home | 44.6% | draw | 11.3% | away | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.3% | away_+2.5 | 75.7% | home_-0.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.4% | home_+0.5 | 55.9% | away_-0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 76.1% | away_-2.5 | 23.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 53.5% | under_2.5 | 46.5% | over_3.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 68.4% | over_4.5 | 16.0% | under_4.5 | 84.0% |
| over_5.5 | 7.1% | under_5.5 | 92.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 33.3% | under_1.5 | 66.7% | over_2.5 | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 87.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 48.6% | under_1.5 | 51.4% | over_2.5 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.0% |
most
| home | 27.9% | draw | 24.3% | away | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.4% | away_+1.5 | 88.6% | home_-0.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.1% | home_+0.5 | 52.1% | away_-0.5 | 47.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.6% | away_-1.5 | 25.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 51.3% | under_20.5 | 48.7% | over_22.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 63.8% | over_24.5 | 23.4% | under_24.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 55.5% | under_9.5 | 44.5% | over_11.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.1% | over_13.5 | 17.6% | under_13.5 | 82.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 60.2% | under_9.5 | 39.8% | over_11.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.4% | over_13.5 | 21.2% | under_13.5 | 78.8% |
most
| home | 42.6% | draw | 7.9% | away | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.8% | away_+3.5 | 78.2% | home_-0.5 | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.4% | home_+2.5 | 65.9% | away_-2.5 | 34.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.9% | no | 93.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.4% | no | 97.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Willem II predictions · For Sittard predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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