Levante vs Ath Bilbao prediction & probabilities (2026-09-16)

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Levante vs Ath Bilbao: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Levante

LDWDL

Wed, 16 Sep 202620:30UK24°C · Rain
Ath Bilbao

LLWWD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Levante or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.28).

Model pick

Levante41.9%

Win probability · fair 2.38

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.2%Fair 1.30
Levante or drawLikely68.5%Fair 1.46
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.5%Fair 1.65

Model read

Our engine prices Levante at 42% for 16 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Levante than the market (28%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Levante, 2 draws and 3 for Ath Bilbao at 2.8 goals per match. • One eye on the skies, with 0.5 mm of rain around kickoff in the forecast. For shots markets, Etta Eyong is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Levante arrive W1 D2 L3, Ath Bilbao W2 D1 L3. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.3%@ 2.54
Ath Bilbao win31.5%@ 3.17
Over 11.5 corners30.0%@ 3.33
Medium risk

Draw or Ath Bilbao58.1%@ 1.72
Both teams to score56.8%@ 1.76
Over 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.00
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.27
1-0 correct score8.6%@ 11.61

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Levante

41.9%+14.3%

Draw

26.5%-0.3%

Ath Bilbao

31.5%-14.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.2%Fair 1.30
Over 2.5Close call52.7%Fair 1.90
BTTS · YesClose call56.8%Fair 1.76

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.5%Fair 1.65
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.6%Fair 2.02
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.3%Fair 2.54
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.0%Fair 3.33
Most cornersLevante51.9%Ath Bilbao37.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.2%Fair 1.95
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.57
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.0%Fair 3.58

Recent shot volume

Levante12.2 taken14.7 faced
Ath Bilbao13.0 taken11.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Levante (5 games)

5.2 / 6.4

Ath Bilbao (5 games)

7.8 / 6.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.2%2.552.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28).

Form & head-to-head

LevanteLDWDL
Ath BilbaoLLWWD

Last 5 meetings: Levante 0 · 2 draws · Ath Bilbao 3 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-02-08Ath Bilbao 4-2 Levante
2025-11-29Levante 0-2 Ath Bilbao
2022-03-07Ath Bilbao 3-1 Levante
2021-11-19Levante 0-0 Ath Bilbao
2021-02-26Levante 1-1 Ath Bilbao

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LevanteAth Bilbao
League position#13 of 20#9 of 20
Record W-D-L1-2-22-1-2
Current streakL1D1
Points per game1.001.40
Record, home vs away1-0-11-0-1
Goals scored per game1.401.40
Goals conceded per game1.801.20
1st half goals per game0.400.40
2nd half goals per game1.001.00
Corners won per game3.46.4
Cards per game1.02.2
Fouls per game10.010.6
Red cards this season01
Shots per game11.614.0
Shots faced per game14.011.0
Shots on target per game4.24.4
1st half shots per game5.27.8
2nd half shots per game6.46.2
xG for per game1.671.96
xG against per game1.801.53
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%40.0%

Rates this season:LevanteAth Bilbao

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Etta EyongLevante · key player
To score18.3%5.46
1+ on target49.1%2.04
2+ shots39.0%2.56
Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.42
Gorka GuruzetaAth Bilbao · key player
To score21.1%4.74
1+ on target50.5%1.98
2+ shots58.7%1.70
Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.36
Roger BruguéLevante · in form
To score15.8%6.33
1+ on target45.6%2.19
2+ shots51.8%1.93
Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.26
Maroan SannadiAth Bilbao · in form
To score6.8%14.71
1+ on target34.9%2.87
2+ shots27.8%3.60
Shots/90 2.49SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.17
Paco CortésLevante · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target28.3%3.53
2+ shots21.5%4.65
Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0
Iñaki WilliamsAth Bilbao · in form
To score14.4%6.94
1+ on target51.7%1.93
2+ shots57.0%1.75
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.19

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Levante win3.402.38
Draw3.503.77
Ath Bilbao win2.103.17
Over 2.5 goals1.851.90
Under 2.5 goals2.002.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Levante win2.42
Draw3.79
Ath Bilbao win3.09
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Levante most2.42
Ath Bilbao most3.09

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.56
Levante most1.92
Ath Bilbao most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.69
Over 4.5 cards2.49
Over 5.5 cards4.09
Levante most3.01
Ath Bilbao most2.12

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.52
Over 8.5 SoT1.87
Over 9.5 SoT2.44
Levante most1.76
Ath Bilbao most3.22

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.95
Over 26.5 shots2.57
Over 28.5 shots3.58
Levante most1.66
Ath Bilbao most2.95

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.39
Over 22.5 fouls1.71
Over 24.5 fouls2.24
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.7% Over 24.5 51.2% Over 26.5 39.0% Over 28.5 28.0%
Most: Levante 60.1% Most: Ath Bilbao 33.8%
Levante Over 13.2 47.9% Ath Bilbao Over 13.2 29.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.3% Over 7.5 65.8% Over 8.5 53.3% Over 9.5 41.1%
Most: Levante 56.8% Most: Ath Bilbao 31.0%
Levante Over 4.2 55.1% Ath Bilbao Over 4.2 36.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.5% Over 3.5 59.0% Over 4.5 40.1%
Most: Levante 33.2% Most: Ath Bilbao 47.2%
Levante Over 1.8 55.6% Ath Bilbao Over 1.8 65.2%

Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Etta Eyong 2.8 1.4 0.42 49.1% 39.0% 18.3%
Roger Brugué 2.63 0.92 0.26 45.6% 51.8% 15.8%
Paco Cortés 2.26 0.87 0 28.3% 21.5% 0.0%
Iván Romero 2.5 0.71 0.27 43.3% 59.4% 19.4%
Thiago Fernández 1.56 0.7 0 36.2% 26.5% 0.0%

Ath Bilbao: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gorka Guruzeta 3 1.07 0.36 50.5% 58.7% 21.1%
Maroan Sannadi 2.49 1.03 0.17 34.9% 27.8% 6.8%
Iñaki Williams 2.34 0.89 0.19 51.7% 57.0% 14.4%
Oihan Sancet 2.73 0.88 0.45 45.4% 56.0% 26.6%
Alex Berenguer 1.94 0.8 0.17 45.0% 42.5% 11.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Levante clean sheet 27.3%
Ath Bilbao clean sheet 22.5%
Levante win to nil 20.5%
Ath Bilbao win to nil 15.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.3% draw 26.4% away 32.3%
double_chance
1X 67.7% 12 73.6% X2 58.7%
dnb
home 56.1% away 43.9%
btts
yes 56.8% no 43.2%
clean_sheet
home 27.4% away 22.5%
win_to_nil
home 20.7% away 15.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 12.5% home_by_3plus 7.9%
away_by_1 18.0% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.9%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 5.2%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.6% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.9% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.2%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.7% under_2.5 47.3%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.5% under_0.5 22.5% over_1.5 43.9%
under_1.5 56.1% over_2.5 18.9% under_2.5 81.1%
team_away
over_0.5 72.6% under_0.5 27.4% over_1.5 37.1%
under_1.5 62.9% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
most
home 41.3% draw 26.4% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.9% away_+2.5 92.1% home_-1.5 20.4%
away_+1.5 79.6% home_-0.5 41.3% away_+0.5 58.7%
home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 85.7%
away_-1.5 14.3% home_+2.5 95.1% away_-2.5 4.9%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.2% draw 45.1% away 27.7%
total
over_0.5 65.3% under_0.5 34.7% over_1.5 28.5%
under_1.5 71.5% over_2.5 9.1% under_2.5 90.9%
btts
yes 16.9% no 83.1%
total_exact
exact_0 34.7% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 6.9% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.7% draw 33.5% away 24.8%
total
over_0.5 81.7% under_0.5 18.4% over_1.5 50.5%
under_1.5 49.5% over_2.5 24.2% under_2.5 75.8%
btts
yes 31.7% no 68.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.6% H/D 4.0% H/A 1.6%
D/H 18.8% D/D 15.1% D/A 11.2%
A/H 3.7% A/D 6.1% A/A 17.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.4% under_7.5 25.6% over_8.5 63.0%
under_8.5 37.0% over_9.5 50.9% under_9.5 49.1%
over_10.5 39.1% under_10.5 60.9% over_11.5 28.6%
under_11.5 71.4% over_12.5 19.9% under_12.5 80.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.1% under_3.5 26.9% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 42.3% under_5.5 57.7%
team_away
over_3.5 63.5% under_3.5 36.5% over_4.5 46.4%
under_4.5 53.6% over_5.5 31.2% under_5.5 68.8%
most
home 52.1% draw 10.8% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.2% away_+3.5 77.8% home_-1.5 41.2%
away_+1.5 58.8% home_-0.5 52.1% away_+0.5 47.9%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 72.7%
away_-1.5 27.4% home_+3.5 87.4% away_-3.5 12.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.7% under_22.5 36.3% over_24.5 51.2%
under_24.5 48.8% over_26.5 39.0% under_26.5 61.0%
over_28.5 28.0% under_28.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.8% under_10.5 27.2% over_12.5 56.4%
under_12.5 43.6% over_14.5 39.8% under_14.5 60.2%
team_away
over_10.5 55.6% under_10.5 44.4% over_12.5 37.4%
under_12.5 62.6% over_14.5 22.6% under_14.5 77.4%
most
home 60.1% draw 6.0% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.1% away_+4.5 64.9% home_-2.5 47.5%
away_+2.5 52.5% home_-0.5 60.1% away_+0.5 39.9%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 85.4% away_-4.5 14.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.3% under_6.5 22.7% over_7.5 65.8%
under_7.5 34.2% over_8.5 53.3% under_8.5 46.7%
over_9.5 41.1% under_9.5 58.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 55.1%
under_4.5 44.9% over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.2%
team_away
over_3.5 54.7% under_3.5 45.3% over_4.5 36.3%
under_4.5 63.7% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
most
home 56.8% draw 12.1% away 31.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.1% away_+2.5 67.9% home_-0.5 56.8%
away_+0.5 43.2% home_+0.5 69.0% away_-0.5 31.1%
home_+2.5 87.2% away_-2.5 12.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.5% under_2.5 22.5% over_3.5 59.0%
under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 40.1% under_4.5 59.9%
over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.6% under_1.5 44.4% over_2.5 29.4%
under_2.5 70.6%
team_away
over_1.5 65.2% under_1.5 34.8% over_2.5 39.4%
under_2.5 60.6%
most
home 33.3% draw 19.6% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.6% away_+1.5 82.4% home_-0.5 33.3%
away_+0.5 66.8% home_+0.5 52.8% away_-0.5 47.2%
home_+1.5 71.4% away_-1.5 28.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 72.0% under_20.5 28.0% over_22.5 58.6%
under_22.5 41.4% over_24.5 44.6% under_24.5 55.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 63.0% under_9.5 37.0% over_11.5 42.1%
under_11.5 57.9% over_13.5 24.5% under_13.5 75.6%
team_away
over_9.5 79.0% under_9.5 21.0% over_11.5 61.5%
under_11.5 38.5% over_13.5 42.7% under_13.5 57.3%
most
home 33.1% draw 6.7% away 60.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 16.6% away_+3.5 83.4% home_-0.5 33.1%
away_+0.5 66.9% home_+2.5 53.9% away_-2.5 46.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
home
yes 6.8% no 93.2%
away
yes 15.0% no 85.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Levante predictions · Ath Bilbao predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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