Alaves vs Valencia prediction & probabilities (2026-09-15)

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Alaves vs Valencia: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Alaves

WDWWL

Tue, 15 Sep 202619:00UK20°C · Clearing
Valencia

DLLLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Alaves or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AlavesWin probability
54.8%
Top 3 convictions

Alaves or draw81.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals72.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Over 8.5 corners60.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Alaves heavy favourites at 55% when Alaves meet Valencia in the La Liga on 15 September 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 57%. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. Mariano drives the home shot volume, 2.0 on target per 90. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Alaves against W1 D1 L4 for Valencia. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Alaves, 2 draws and 1 for Valencia at 2.2 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.9%@ 2.13
Draw or Valencia45.2%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals53.1%@ 1.88
Not both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97
Over 9.5 corners49.9%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.4%@ 8.08
1-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.33
2-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.83

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alaves

54.8%-1.8%

Draw

26.3%-0.5%

Valencia

18.9%+2.3%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.3%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersAlaves57.4%Valencia32.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.2%

Good chance

Over 24.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Alaves14.8 taken11.0 faced
Valencia10.2 taken13.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Alaves (5 games)

4.8 / 9.2

Valencia (5 games)

3.8 / 5.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.9%2.546.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

AlavesWDWWL
ValenciaDLLLL

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 2 · 2 draws · Valencia 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-03-08Valencia 3-2 Alaves
2025-10-20Alaves 0-0 Valencia
2025-05-14Alaves 1-0 Valencia
2024-12-22Valencia 2-2 Alaves
2024-05-05Valencia 0-1 Alaves

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AlavesValencia
League position#4 of 20#20 of 20
Record W-D-L3-1-10-1-4
Current streakL1L4
Points per game2.000.20
Record, home vs away3-0-00-0-2
PPG, home vs away3.00·
Goals scored per game2.200.20
Goals conceded per game1.002.00
Scored, home vs away3.00·
Conceded, home vs away0.67·
1st half goals per game0.800.20
2nd half goals per game1.400.00
Corners won per game5.43.8
Cards per game2.61.6
Fouls per game15.010.2
Red cards this season00
Shots per game14.08.4
Shots faced per game10.214.2
Shots on target per game5.62.2
1st half shots per game4.83.8
2nd half shots per game9.25.0
xG for per game1.860.67
xG against per game1.061.81
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%20.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%20.0%

Rates this season:AlavesValencia

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

MarianoAlaves · key player
To score18.2%

@ 5.49

1+ on target51.9%

@ 1.93

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1.97Goals/90 0.54
Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldValencia · key player
To score8.3%

@ 12.05

1+ on target41.8%

@ 2.39

2+ shots36.8%

@ 2.72

Shots/90 2.09SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.14
Antonio MartínezAlaves · in form
To score21.6%

@ 4.63

1+ on target50.9%

@ 1.96

2+ shots62.2%

@ 1.61

Shots/90 3.2SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.37
Umar SadiqValencia · in form
To score19.2%

@ 5.21

1+ on target34.7%

@ 2.88

2+ shots32.7%

@ 3.06

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.44
Lucas BoyéAlaves · in form
To score36.5%

@ 2.74

1+ on target53.0%

@ 1.89

2+ shots66.3%

@ 1.51

Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.59
Harvey ElliottValencia · in form
To score4.1%

@ 24.39

1+ on target15.4%

@ 6.49

2+ shots23.4%

@ 4.27

Shots/90 4.16SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.19

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Alaves win1.701.82
Draw3.503.80
Valencia win5.505.29
Over 2.5 goals2.102.13
Under 2.5 goals1.731.88

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alaves win1.90
Draw3.84
Valencia win4.71
Both teams to score2.03

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.13
Over 3.5 goals3.94
Alaves most1.90
Valencia most4.71

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Alaves most1.74
Valencia most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.56
Over 4.5 cards2.20
Over 5.5 cards3.43
Alaves most2.35
Valencia most2.61

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.24
Over 9.5 SoT3.06
Alaves most1.69
Valencia most3.52

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.75
Over 24.5 shots2.25
Over 26.5 shots3.08
Over 28.5 shots4.49
Alaves most1.58
Valencia most3.27

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.43
Over 24.5 fouls1.76
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 57.2% Over 24.5 44.4% Over 26.5 32.4% Over 28.5 22.3%
Most: Alaves 63.4% Most: Valencia 30.6%
Alaves Over 13.2 45.4% Valencia Over 13.2 23.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.6% Over 7.5 57.7% Over 8.5 44.7% Over 9.5 32.7%
Most: Alaves 59.2% Most: Valencia 28.4%
Alaves Over 4.2 50.8% Valencia Over 4.2 28.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.1% Over 3.5 64.0% Over 4.5 45.5%
Most: Alaves 42.6% Most: Valencia 38.3%
Alaves Over 1.8 65.5% Valencia Over 1.8 62.7%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mariano 2.69 1.97 0.54 51.9% 26.4% 18.2%
Antonio Martínez 3.2 1.08 0.37 50.9% 62.2% 21.6%
Lucas Boyé 2.95 0.98 0.59 53.0% 66.3% 36.5%
Abderrahmane Rebbach 1.8 0.65 0.04 31.5% 28.2% 2.3%
Carlos Benavídez 0.95 0.47 0.12 12.4% 3.0% 3.3%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.09 0.88 0.14 41.8% 36.8% 8.3%
Umar Sadiq 2.42 0.88 0.44 34.7% 32.7% 19.2%
Harvey Elliott 4.16 0.76 0.19 15.4% 23.4% 4.1%
Raba 2.2 0.71 0.35 33.2% 35.5% 18.0%
Hugo Duro 1.66 0.65 0.44 34.0% 28.6% 24.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Alaves clean sheet 39.0%
Valencia clean sheet 19.9%
Alaves win to nil 30.6%
Valencia win to nil 11.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.7% draw 26.1% away 21.2%
double_chance
1X 78.8% 12 74.0% X2 47.3%
dnb
home 71.3% away 28.7%
btts
yes 49.3% no 50.7%
clean_sheet
home 39.3% away 19.9%
win_to_nil
home 30.8% away 11.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.3% home_by_2 16.4% home_by_3plus 12.1%
away_by_1 13.8% away_by_2 5.5% away_by_3plus 1.9%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 6.7% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.0% 1-1 12.4% 1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.2% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.5% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.1% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 72.9%
under_1.5 27.1% over_2.5 46.9% under_2.5 53.1%
over_3.5 25.4% under_3.5 74.6% over_4.5 11.6%
under_4.5 88.4% over_5.5 4.6% under_5.5 95.4%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 80.1% under_0.5 19.9% over_1.5 48.0%
under_1.5 52.0% over_2.5 22.1% under_2.5 77.9%
team_away
over_0.5 60.8% under_0.5 39.3% over_1.5 24.1%
under_1.5 75.9% over_2.5 6.9% under_2.5 93.1%
most
home 52.7% draw 26.1% away 21.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.1% away_+2.5 87.9% home_-1.5 28.5%
away_+1.5 71.5% home_-0.5 52.7% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 78.8% away_-0.5 21.2% home_+1.5 92.6%
away_-1.5 7.4% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 1.9%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.7% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.8% exact_5 7.0%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 47.4% away 13.8%
total
over_0.5 60.0% under_0.5 40.0% over_1.5 23.3%
under_1.5 76.7% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
btts
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
total_exact
exact_0 40.0% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 16.8%
exact_3 5.1% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.9% draw 32.6% away 24.6%
total
over_0.5 83.0% under_0.5 17.1% over_1.5 52.8%
under_1.5 47.2% over_2.5 26.1% under_2.5 73.9%
btts
yes 33.3% no 66.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 31.3% H/D 5.4% H/A 2.1%
D/H 20.3% D/D 15.4% D/A 11.6%
A/H 2.2% A/D 3.3% A/A 8.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.7% under_7.5 25.4% over_8.5 63.3%
under_8.5 36.7% over_9.5 51.2% under_9.5 48.8%
over_10.5 39.4% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 28.9%
under_11.5 71.1% over_12.5 20.1% under_12.5 79.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.3% under_3.5 23.7% over_4.5 61.6%
under_4.5 38.4% over_5.5 46.4% under_5.5 53.6%
team_away
over_3.5 59.6% under_3.5 40.4% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
most
home 57.6% draw 10.4% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.5% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-1.5 46.6%
away_+1.5 53.4% home_-0.5 57.6% away_+0.5 42.4%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 77.1%
away_-1.5 22.9% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.2% under_22.5 42.8% over_24.5 44.4%
under_24.5 55.6% over_26.5 32.4% under_26.5 67.6%
over_28.5 22.3% under_28.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.7% under_10.5 29.3% over_12.5 53.9%
under_12.5 46.1% over_14.5 37.4% under_14.5 62.6%
team_away
over_10.5 48.2% under_10.5 51.8% over_12.5 30.3%
under_12.5 69.7% over_14.5 17.0% under_14.5 83.0%
most
home 63.4% draw 6.0% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.7% away_+4.5 62.3% home_-2.5 50.5%
away_+2.5 49.5% home_-0.5 63.4% away_+0.5 36.6%
home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6% home_+2.5 79.8%
away_-2.5 20.2% home_+4.5 87.8% away_-4.5 12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.6% under_6.5 29.5% over_7.5 57.7%
under_7.5 42.3% over_8.5 44.7% under_8.5 55.3%
over_9.5 32.7% under_9.5 67.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.1% under_3.5 31.9% over_4.5 50.8%
under_4.5 49.2% over_5.5 34.6% under_5.5 65.4%
team_away
over_3.5 46.5% under_3.5 53.5% over_4.5 28.6%
under_4.5 71.4% over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
most
home 59.2% draw 12.4% away 28.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.2% away_+2.5 66.9% home_-0.5 59.2%
away_+0.5 40.8% home_+0.5 71.6% away_-0.5 28.4%
home_+2.5 89.3% away_-2.5 10.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.1% under_2.5 18.9% over_3.5 64.0%
under_3.5 36.0% over_4.5 45.5% under_4.5 54.5%
over_5.5 29.1% under_5.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.5% under_1.5 34.5% over_2.5 39.7%
under_2.5 60.3%
team_away
over_1.5 62.7% under_1.5 37.3% over_2.5 36.6%
under_2.5 63.4%
most
home 42.6% draw 19.1% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 25.4% away_+1.5 74.6% home_-0.5 42.6%
away_+0.5 57.4% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3%
home_+1.5 78.1% away_-1.5 21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.1% under_20.5 18.9% over_22.5 69.9%
under_22.5 30.1% over_24.5 56.9% under_24.5 43.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.9% under_9.5 19.1% over_11.5 64.2%
under_11.5 35.8% over_13.5 45.5% under_13.5 54.5%
team_away
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 57.0%
under_11.5 43.0% over_13.5 38.1% under_13.5 61.9%
most
home 51.9% draw 6.7% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.1% away_+3.5 67.9% home_-0.5 51.9%
away_+0.5 48.1% home_+2.5 71.2% away_-2.5 28.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.5% no 80.5%
home
yes 12.0% no 88.1%
away
yes 8.5% no 91.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alaves predictions · Valencia predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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