Pro League
Westerlo vs 
Standard Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Westerlo have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.8 conceded, Standard 2.0 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.1% for over 2.5 and 75.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Westerlo have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Standard in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.5% | 7.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 13.4% | 86.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.5% | 94.5% |
Team goal lines
74.3%
39.5%
15.8%
73.1%
37.8%
14.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.4% | 87.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Westerlo goals scored per game2.8Westerlo goals conceded per game100.0%Westerlo Over 2.5 rate1.2Westerlo 1st-half goals per game2.0Standard goals scored per game1.2Standard goals conceded per game60.0%Standard Over 2.5 rate0.8Standard 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
54.9%Both Teams to Score50.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 50.1% for three or more goals and 75.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Westerlo favoured at 37.6%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Westerlo to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Westerlo 1 · 2 draws · Standard 2 · 1.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Westerlo vs Standard?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 50.1% for Westerlo vs Standard.
Will there be a first-half goal in Westerlo vs Standard?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.4%.
How often have Westerlo gone over 2.5 recently?
Westerlo have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Standard in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.