Championship
West Ham vs Charlton Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.1% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. Between the two sides, Charlton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.3%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.1% | 29.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.7% | 83.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.4%
20.8%
62.3%
35.3%
Card handicap
| West Ham line | West Ham | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.4% | 86.6% |
| -0.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| +0.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Ham vs Charlton. It tips Charlton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.1%Over 3.5 cards8.5%Any red card46.4%West Ham over 1.5 cards62.3%Charlton over 1.5 cards42.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, West Ham over 1.5 cards sits at 46.4% and Charlton at 62.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.5% (West Ham 6.7%, Charlton 2.0%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in West Ham vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.1% for West Ham vs Charlton.
Will there be a red card in West Ham vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Ham vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charlton to pick up more cards at 50.3%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.