Championship
West Ham vs Charlton Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.4% for over 22.5 to 28.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Between the two sides, West Ham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 69.2%, with a level count at 5.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.6% | 71.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.0%
63.1%
46.9%
48.6%
30.9%
17.6%
Shot handicap
| West Ham line | West Ham | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| -2.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| -0.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| +0.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.5% | 33.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.6% | 70.4% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to West Ham.
In-depth analysis
52.0%Over 24.5 shots63.1%West Ham over 12.5 shots30.9%Charlton over 12.5 shots53.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, West Ham over 12.5 shots sits at 63.1% and Charlton at 30.9%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in West Ham vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 52.0% for West Ham vs Charlton.
Which team will have more shots in West Ham vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated West Ham to take more shots at 69.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.