Super League Greece
PAOK vs 
Aris Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 69.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 33.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Head to head on cards, Aris are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.0%, with a level count at 18.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.5%
34.5%
74.2%
49.4%
Card handicap
| PAOK line | PAOK | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| -0.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| +0.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| +1.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 70.8% | 29.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for PAOK vs Aris. The model leans toward Aris for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
69.5%Over 3.5 cards22.0%Any red card61.5%PAOK over 1.5 cards74.2%Aris over 1.5 cards81.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, PAOK over 1.5 cards sits at 61.5% and Aris at 74.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.0% (PAOK 10.0%, Aris 13.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in PAOK vs Aris?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.5% for PAOK vs Aris.
Will there be a red card in PAOK vs Aris?
The model rates a red card for either side at 22.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in PAOK vs Aris?
The model rates Aris to pick up more cards at 51.0%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.