Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Newcastle Corners
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 54.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.1% for over 7.5 to 25.3% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.1%. On the corner count, Tottenham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.7%, with a level count at 9.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.3% | 74.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.0%
60.8%
46.4%
65.4%
49.4%
34.8%
Corner handicap
| Tottenham line | Tottenham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| -0.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| +0.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| +1.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Tottenham.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Tottenham over 4.5 corners sits at 60.8% and Newcastle at 49.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.5% for Tottenham vs Newcastle.
Which team will win the corner count in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tottenham to win the corner count at 52.7%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.