Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Newcastle Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 62.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.3% for over 2.5 to 26.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.9%. On the card count, Tottenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.8%, with a level count at 19.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.3% | 73.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.5%
37.6%
62.1%
35.1%
Card handicap
| Tottenham line | Tottenham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| -0.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| +1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 37.4% | 62.6% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tottenham vs Newcastle. The model leans toward Tottenham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
62.3%Over 3.5 cards9.1%Any red card64.5%Tottenham over 1.5 cards62.1%Newcastle over 1.5 cards52.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Tottenham over 1.5 cards sits at 64.5% and Newcastle at 62.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.1% (Tottenham 4.7%, Newcastle 4.6%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.3% for Tottenham vs Newcastle.
Will there be a red card in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tottenham to pick up more cards at 41.8%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.