Championship
Sheffield United vs Bolton Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 60.6% and it landed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 58.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 81.4% for over 7.5 to 28.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. Head to head on corners, Sheffield United are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.6%, with a level count at 9.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
82.0%
69.1%
54.8%
63.5%
46.4%
31.1%
Corner handicap
| Sheffield United line | Sheffield United | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| -1.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| -0.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sheffield United.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Sheffield United over 4.5 corners sits at 69.1% and Bolton at 46.4%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sheffield United vs Bolton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 60.6% for Sheffield United vs Bolton.
Which team will win the corner count in Sheffield United vs Bolton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sheffield United to win the corner count at 60.6%, with a level count at 9.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,504 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.