Championship
Sheffield United vs Bolton Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 88.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.9% for over 2.5 to 18.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Head to head on cards, Bolton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 20.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.2% | 81.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.4%
23.2%
62.7%
35.7%
Card handicap
| Sheffield United line | Sheffield United | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| +1.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.3% | 43.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.6% | 73.4% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sheffield United vs Bolton. It tips Bolton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.3%Over 3.5 cards11.4%Any red card49.4%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards62.7%Bolton over 1.5 cards40.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sheffield United over 1.5 cards sits at 49.4% and Bolton at 62.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Sheffield United 5.3%, Bolton 6.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sheffield United vs Bolton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.3% for Sheffield United vs Bolton.
Will there be a red card in Sheffield United vs Bolton?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sheffield United vs Bolton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bolton to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.