Serie A
Sassuolo vs 
Juventus Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Draw or Away at 81.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Juventus are favoured at 56.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo by 1 | 13.7% |
| Sassuolo by 2 | 5.5% |
| Sassuolo by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Juventus by 1 | 24.1% |
| Juventus by 2 | 16.5% |
| Juventus by 3+ | 12.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
Goal handicap
| Sassuolo line | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 21.1% | 78.9% |
| +0.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| +1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| +2.5 | 87.4% | 12.6% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is draw or Juventus on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
49.9%Both Teams to Score
48.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Juventus are favoured at 56.6%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sassuolo 2 · 1 draws · Juventus 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Sassuolo vs Juventus?
Draw or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Sassuolo vs Juventus at 81.1%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Sassuolo vs Juventus?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Sassuolo at 28.4% and Juventus at 71.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.