Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs 
Rio Ave Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 69.4% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 82.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 69.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.0% for over 2.5 to 33.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.0%. On the card count, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 18.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.6% | 66.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.3%
38.6%
71.2%
45.5%
Card handicap
| Santa Clara line | Santa Clara | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| -0.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.2% | 34.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave. Slightly more cards are projected for Rio Ave for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
69.4%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card65.3%Santa Clara over 1.5 cards71.2%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards76.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Santa Clara over 1.5 cards sits at 65.3% and Rio Ave at 71.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Santa Clara 5.5%, Rio Ave 12.7%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 69.4% for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave.
Will there be a red card in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rio Ave to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.