Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs 
Famalicao Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 74.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 88.1% for over 2.5 to 39.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.2%. Between the two sides, Famalicao are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 18.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 39.7% | 60.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
72.0%
46.6%
72.0%
46.6%
Card handicap
| Santa Clara line | Santa Clara | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| -0.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| +1.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 92.0% | 8.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 76.7% | 23.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Santa Clara vs Famalicao. Slightly more cards are projected for Santa Clara for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
74.5%Over 3.5 cards14.8%Any red card72.0%Santa Clara over 1.5 cards72.0%Famalicao over 1.5 cards85.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Santa Clara over 1.5 cards sits at 72.0% and Famalicao at 72.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.8% (Santa Clara 9.2%, Famalicao 6.1%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 74.5% for Santa Clara vs Famalicao.
Will there be a red card in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Before kickoff, the model rated Famalicao to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.