Segunda DivisiónSabadell vs Cordoba Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 75.6% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 86.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 75.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 88.8% for over 2.5 to 41.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.6%. Between the two sides, Cordoba are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 18.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
72.8%
47.6%
72.9%
47.6%
Card handicap
| Sabadell line | Sabadell | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| -0.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.5% | 31.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sabadell vs Cordoba. It tips Cordoba for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
75.6%Over 3.5 cards13.4%Any red card72.8%Sabadell over 1.5 cards72.9%Cordoba over 1.5 cards79.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Sabadell over 1.5 cards sits at 72.8% and Cordoba at 72.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.4% (Sabadell 7.5%, Cordoba 6.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sabadell vs Cordoba?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.6% for Sabadell vs Cordoba.
Will there be a red card in Sabadell vs Cordoba?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sabadell vs Cordoba?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cordoba to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.