Serie A
Roma vs 
Atalanta Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Roma or Draw (74.1%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 74.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Roma are favoured at 48.2%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Roma by 1 | 22.8% |
| Roma by 2 | 14.3% |
| Roma by 3+ | 9.6% |
| Atalanta by 1 | 16.1% |
| Atalanta by 2 | 7.3% |
| Atalanta by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
Goal handicap
| Roma line | Roma | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| -0.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| +0.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| +1.5 | 89.6% | 10.4% |
Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Roma or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.5%Both Teams to Score
48.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Roma are favoured at 48.2%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Roma 0 · 1 draws · Atalanta 4 · 2.2 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Roma vs Atalanta?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 74.1%; it landed, final score 2-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.