ChampionshipPortsmouth vs Derby Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 57.2% and it landed (13 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.0% for over 7.5 to 25.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. Between the two sides, Portsmouth are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 61.1%, with a level count at 9.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
80.8%
67.5%
52.8%
60.9%
43.5%
28.5%
Corner handicap
| Portsmouth line | Portsmouth | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| -1.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| -0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| +0.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Portsmouth.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Portsmouth over 4.5 corners sits at 67.5% and Derby at 43.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 57.2% for Portsmouth vs Derby.
Which team will win the corner count in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Portsmouth to win the corner count at 61.1%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.