League TwoPort Vale vs Tranmere Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Port Vale or Tranmere (72.3%), did not land.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 72.3%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Port Vale are favoured at 36.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Port Vale by 1 | 20.0% |
| Port Vale by 2 | 10.8% |
| Port Vale by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Tranmere by 1 | 19.7% |
| Tranmere by 2 | 10.5% |
| Tranmere by 3+ | 5.5% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
Goal handicap
| Port Vale line | Port Vale | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| +0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| +1.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Port Vale or Tranmere on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
53.4%Both Teams to Score
48.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Port Vale are favoured at 36.6%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Port Vale 0 · 4 draws · Tranmere 1 · 1.6 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Port Vale vs Tranmere?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 72.3%; it did not land, final score 1-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.