Rochdale vs Crawley Town: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Crawley Town
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Crawley Town at 35.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 57.4% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 50.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"36% on Crawley Town is a measurement, not a promise." The probabilities barely separate Rochdale and Crawley Town on 22 August 2026: Crawley Town nose ahead at 36%. Notably, the model is warmer on Crawley Town than the market (22%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 43% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 0 wins for Rochdale, 1 draws and 3 for Crawley Town at 1.5 goals per match. As a promoted side, Rochdale carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Rochdale against W0 D3 L3 for Crawley Town. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
35.3%-15.1%
29.1%+1.7%
35.6%+13.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Rochdale 0 · 1 draws · Crawley Town 3 · 1.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.0% | Over 7.5 | 54.4% | Over 8.5 | 42.0% | Over 9.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rochdale | 51.6% | Most: Crawley Town | 35.7% | ||||
| Rochdale Over 4.2 | 43.6% | Crawley Town Over 4.2 | 32.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.5% | Over 3.5 | 54.4% | Over 4.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rochdale | 34.3% | Most: Crawley Town | 44.8% | ||
| Rochdale Over 1.8 | 54.0% | Crawley Town Over 1.8 | 61.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rochdale clean sheet | 30.3% |
|---|---|
| Crawley Town clean sheet | 30.4% |
| Rochdale win to nil | 20.4% |
| Crawley Town win to nil | 20.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 35.3% | draw | 29.1% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.4% | 12 | 70.9% | X2 | 64.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 49.8% | away | 50.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.1% | no | 50.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.3% | away | 30.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.5% | away | 20.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.2% | home_by_2 | 10.2% | home_by_3plus | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.2% | away_by_2 | 10.3% | away_by_3plus | 5.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.9% | 0-1 | 10.3% | 0-2 | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 1-1 | 13.7% | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.6% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.1% | under_0.5 | 9.9% | over_1.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.6% | over_2.5 | 42.6% | under_2.5 | 57.4% |
| over_3.5 | 21.9% | under_3.5 | 78.1% | over_4.5 | 9.4% |
| under_4.5 | 90.6% | over_5.5 | 3.5% | under_5.5 | 96.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.5% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.8% | under_2.5 | 88.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.7% | under_0.5 | 30.3% | over_1.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.4% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 88.0% |
most
| home | 35.3% | draw | 29.1% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.9% | away_+2.5 | 95.1% | home_-1.5 | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.9% | home_-0.5 | 35.3% | away_+0.5 | 64.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% | home_+1.5 | 84.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.4% | home_+2.5 | 94.9% | away_-2.5 | 5.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.9% | exact_1 | 20.7% | exact_2 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.8% | exact_4 | 12.4% | exact_5 | 5.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.4% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.1% | draw | 48.7% | away | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 60.2% | under_0.5 | 39.8% | over_1.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.5% | over_2.5 | 6.6% | under_2.5 | 93.4% |
btts
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 39.8% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.2% | exact_4plus | 1.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.5% | draw | 37.8% | away | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.8% | under_0.5 | 24.2% | over_1.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.5% | over_2.5 | 17.1% | under_2.5 | 82.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.6% | no | 74.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.1% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.3% | D/D | 18.4% | D/A | 13.0% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 16.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.4% | under_7.5 | 22.7% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.5% | under_9.5 | 44.5% |
| over_10.5 | 44.1% | under_10.5 | 55.9% | over_11.5 | 33.5% |
| under_11.5 | 66.5% | over_12.5 | 24.4% | under_12.5 | 75.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.0% | under_3.5 | 24.0% | over_4.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.5% | over_5.5 | 46.6% | under_5.5 | 53.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.9% | under_3.5 | 35.1% | over_4.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.7% | over_5.5 | 33.2% | under_5.5 | 66.8% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 10.4% | away | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.3% | away_+3.5 | 75.7% | home_-1.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.8% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% | away_+0.5 | 46.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.1% | away_-0.5 | 35.9% | home_+1.5 | 73.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.5% | home_+3.5 | 87.7% | away_-3.5 | 12.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.7% | under_22.5 | 41.3% | over_24.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.1% | over_26.5 | 33.9% | under_26.5 | 66.1% |
| over_28.5 | 23.6% | under_28.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.0% | under_10.5 | 33.0% | over_12.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.5% | over_14.5 | 33.3% | under_14.5 | 66.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.1% | under_10.5 | 44.9% | over_12.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.0% | over_14.5 | 22.3% | under_14.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 6.3% | away | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.6% | away_+4.5 | 69.4% | home_-2.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% | away_+0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.0% | away_-0.5 | 38.0% | home_+2.5 | 73.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.4% | home_+4.5 | 83.0% | away_-4.5 | 17.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.0% | under_6.5 | 33.0% | over_7.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.6% | over_8.5 | 42.0% | under_8.5 | 58.0% |
| over_9.5 | 30.9% | under_9.5 | 69.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 28.9% | under_5.5 | 71.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.4% | under_3.5 | 50.6% | over_4.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.8% | over_5.5 | 19.2% | under_5.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 12.7% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.4% | away_+2.5 | 72.6% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.4% | home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.5% | away_-2.5 | 15.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.5% | under_2.5 | 25.5% | over_3.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.6% | over_4.5 | 34.9% | under_4.5 | 65.1% |
| over_5.5 | 19.7% | under_5.5 | 80.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.0% | under_1.5 | 46.0% | over_2.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.5% | under_1.5 | 38.5% | over_2.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.6% |
most
| home | 34.3% | draw | 20.9% | away | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.6% | away_+1.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.7% | home_+0.5 | 55.2% | away_-0.5 | 44.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.4% | away_-1.5 | 25.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 73.1% | under_20.5 | 26.9% | over_22.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 41.3% | over_24.5 | 43.6% | under_24.5 | 56.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.2% | under_9.5 | 25.8% | over_11.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.5% | over_13.5 | 33.1% | under_13.5 | 66.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.3% | under_9.5 | 27.8% | over_11.5 | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.9% | over_13.5 | 30.8% | under_13.5 | 69.2% |
most
| home | 47.9% | draw | 7.6% | away | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.5% | away_+3.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.1% | home_+2.5 | 70.0% | away_-2.5 | 30.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 29.1% | no | 70.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 18.5% | no | 81.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.0% | no | 87.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rochdale predictions · Crawley Town predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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