League TwoPort Vale vs Tranmere Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 17.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. On the card count, Tranmere are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 20.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.9% | 82.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.0%
22.1%
63.2%
36.3%
Card handicap
| Port Vale line | Port Vale | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.9% | 86.1% |
| -0.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| +0.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.2% | 64.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Port Vale vs Tranmere. It tips Tranmere for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.9%Over 3.5 cards18.0%Any red card48.0%Port Vale over 1.5 cards63.2%Tranmere over 1.5 cards50.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Port Vale over 1.5 cards sits at 48.0% and Tranmere at 63.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.0% (Port Vale 11.8%, Tranmere 7.0%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Port Vale vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.9% for Port Vale vs Tranmere.
Will there be a red card in Port Vale vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Port Vale vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tranmere to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.