Port Vale vs Tranmere: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Port Vale or draw
Draw or Tranmere
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Port Vale at 36.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 53.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Port Vale or Tranmere? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Expect a tight one: the model splits Port Vale and Tranmere almost evenly, Port Vale marginally on top at 37%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Port Vale higher (56%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Port Vale against W2 D2 L2 for Tranmere. As a promoted side, Port Vale carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Port Vale, 4 draws and 1 for Tranmere at 1.6 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
36.6%-19.4%
27.7%+2.0%
35.7%+17.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Port Vale 0 · 4 draws · Tranmere 1 · 1.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.7% | Over 7.5 | 52.9% | Over 8.5 | 40.6% | Over 9.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Port Vale | 55.5% | Most: Tranmere | 32.0% | ||||
| Port Vale Over 4.2 | 45.2% | Tranmere Over 4.2 | 28.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.5% | Over 3.5 | 51.9% | Over 4.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Port Vale | 29.2% | Most: Tranmere | 50.1% | ||
| Port Vale Over 1.8 | 48.0% | Tranmere Over 1.8 | 63.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Port Vale clean sheet | 27.6% |
|---|---|
| Tranmere clean sheet | 27.0% |
| Port Vale win to nil | 19.5% |
| Tranmere win to nil | 18.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 36.7% | draw | 27.7% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.3% | 12 | 72.3% | X2 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 50.7% | away | 49.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.4% | no | 46.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.6% | away | 27.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.5% | away | 19.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.0% | home_by_2 | 10.8% | home_by_3plus | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.7% | away_by_2 | 10.5% | away_by_3plus | 5.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 9.0% | 0-2 | 6.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 3.5% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 2-1 | 8.2% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 3-1 | 3.6% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.2% | over_2.5 | 48.0% | under_2.5 | 52.0% |
| over_3.5 | 26.3% | under_3.5 | 73.7% | over_4.5 | 12.2% |
| under_4.5 | 87.8% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.9% | under_0.5 | 27.1% | over_1.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.4% | over_2.5 | 14.5% | under_2.5 | 85.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.4% | under_0.5 | 27.6% | over_1.5 | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.1% | over_2.5 | 14.0% | under_2.5 | 86.0% |
most
| home | 36.7% | draw | 27.7% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.8% | away_+2.5 | 94.2% | home_-1.5 | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.4% | home_-0.5 | 36.7% | away_+0.5 | 63.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% | home_+1.5 | 84.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.0% | home_+2.5 | 94.5% | away_-2.5 | 5.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.1% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.7% | draw | 45.9% | away | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.7% | under_0.5 | 37.3% | over_1.5 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.1% | over_2.5 | 7.8% | under_2.5 | 92.2% |
btts
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.3% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.9% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.0% | draw | 34.1% | away | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.8% | under_0.5 | 19.2% | over_1.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.8% | over_2.5 | 23.0% | under_2.5 | 77.0% |
btts
| yes | 30.7% | no | 69.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.4% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.8% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 11.4% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 10.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.1% | under_7.5 | 25.0% | over_8.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.9% | over_9.5 | 52.4% | under_9.5 | 47.6% |
| over_10.5 | 41.0% | under_10.5 | 59.0% | over_11.5 | 30.6% |
| under_11.5 | 69.4% | over_12.5 | 21.9% | under_12.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.5% | under_3.5 | 24.5% | over_4.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.1% | over_5.5 | 45.9% | under_5.5 | 54.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.6% | under_3.5 | 38.4% | over_4.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.4% | over_5.5 | 29.8% | under_5.5 | 70.2% |
most
| home | 55.7% | draw | 10.4% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.3% | away_+3.5 | 74.7% | home_-1.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.1% | home_-0.5 | 55.7% | away_+0.5 | 44.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% | home_+1.5 | 75.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.6% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.5% | under_22.5 | 41.5% | over_24.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.3% | over_26.5 | 33.7% | under_26.5 | 66.3% |
| over_28.5 | 23.4% | under_28.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.8% | under_10.5 | 29.2% | over_12.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.0% | over_14.5 | 37.5% | under_14.5 | 62.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.0% | under_10.5 | 50.0% | over_12.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.0% | over_14.5 | 18.4% | under_14.5 | 81.6% |
most
| home | 62.2% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.7% | away_+4.5 | 63.3% | home_-2.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 62.2% | away_+0.5 | 37.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.2% | away_-0.5 | 31.8% | home_+2.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.2% | home_+4.5 | 87.0% | away_-4.5 | 13.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.7% | under_6.5 | 34.3% | over_7.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.1% | over_8.5 | 40.6% | under_8.5 | 59.4% |
| over_9.5 | 29.6% | under_9.5 | 70.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.2% | under_3.5 | 37.8% | over_4.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.8% | over_5.5 | 30.4% | under_5.5 | 69.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.4% | under_3.5 | 54.6% | over_4.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.5% | over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
most
| home | 55.5% | draw | 12.5% | away | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.5% | away_+2.5 | 69.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.5% | home_+0.5 | 68.0% | away_-0.5 | 32.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.9% | away_-2.5 | 13.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.5% | under_2.5 | 27.5% | over_3.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.1% | over_4.5 | 32.5% | under_4.5 | 67.5% |
| over_5.5 | 17.9% | under_5.5 | 82.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 48.0% | under_1.5 | 52.0% | over_2.5 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.2% | under_1.5 | 36.8% | over_2.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.7% |
most
| home | 29.2% | draw | 20.7% | away | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.9% | away_+1.5 | 86.1% | home_-0.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.8% | home_+0.5 | 49.9% | away_-0.5 | 50.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.3% | away_-1.5 | 29.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 65.7% | under_20.5 | 34.3% | over_22.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 49.8% | over_24.5 | 35.2% | under_24.5 | 64.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.1% | under_9.5 | 41.9% | over_11.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.5% | over_13.5 | 18.1% | under_13.5 | 81.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.5% | under_9.5 | 23.5% | over_11.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.5% | over_13.5 | 36.0% | under_13.5 | 64.0% |
most
| home | 31.8% | draw | 7.3% | away | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 14.3% | away_+3.5 | 85.7% | home_-0.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.2% | home_+2.5 | 54.7% | away_-2.5 | 45.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.0% | no | 82.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.8% | no | 88.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Port Vale predictions · Tranmere predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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