Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham: model prediction
League TwoFleetwood Town or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Fleetwood Town at 51.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.1% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 50.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Fleetwood Town versus Gillingham on 22 August 2026 tilts towards Fleetwood Town in our numbers (51%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Fleetwood Town at 52%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Fleetwood Town, 2 draws and 0 for Gillingham at 2.0 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Fleetwood Town W2 D3 L1, Gillingham W1 D1 L4. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.1%-0.9%
26.4%-0.3%
22.5%+1.3%
value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Fleetwood Town 2 · 2 draws · Gillingham 0 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.6% | Over 7.5 | 49.6% | Over 8.5 | 37.2% | Over 9.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Fleetwood Town | 56.2% | Most: Gillingham | 31.1% | ||||
| Fleetwood Town Over 4.2 | 43.3% | Gillingham Over 4.2 | 25.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.3% | Over 3.5 | 52.8% | Over 4.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Fleetwood Town | 33.6% | Most: Gillingham | 45.4% | ||
| Fleetwood Town Over 1.8 | 52.4% | Gillingham Over 1.8 | 60.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Fleetwood Town clean sheet | 37.8% |
|---|---|
| Gillingham clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Fleetwood Town win to nil | 29.4% |
| Gillingham win to nil | 12.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 51.1% | draw | 26.4% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 77.5% | 12 | 73.6% | X2 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 69.4% | away | 30.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.8% | no | 50.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 38.0% | away | 20.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.6% | away | 12.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.0% | home_by_2 | 15.8% | home_by_3plus | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.4% | away_by_2 | 5.9% | away_by_3plus | 2.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 5.8% |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 2-1 | 9.5% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.2% | 3-1 | 5.0% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.0% | 4-1 | 2.0% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.6% | under_0.5 | 8.4% | over_1.5 | 72.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.1% | over_2.5 | 46.9% | under_2.5 | 53.1% |
| over_3.5 | 25.3% | under_3.5 | 74.7% | over_4.5 | 11.6% |
| under_4.5 | 88.4% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.5% | under_0.5 | 20.5% | over_1.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.1% | over_2.5 | 21.2% | under_2.5 | 78.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 62.0% | under_0.5 | 38.0% | over_1.5 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.8% | over_2.5 | 7.5% | under_2.5 | 92.5% |
most
| home | 51.1% | draw | 26.4% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.3% | away_+2.5 | 88.7% | home_-1.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 51.1% | away_+0.5 | 48.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.5% | away_-0.5 | 22.5% | home_+1.5 | 91.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.1% | home_+2.5 | 97.8% | away_-2.5 | 2.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.4% | exact_1 | 18.7% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.8% | exact_5 | 7.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.6% | draw | 46.3% | away | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.8% | under_0.5 | 38.2% | over_1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.0% | over_2.5 | 7.4% | under_2.5 | 92.6% |
btts
| yes | 12.7% | no | 87.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 38.2% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.7% | exact_4plus | 1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.1% | draw | 35.1% | away | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.2% | under_0.5 | 20.8% | over_1.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.4% | over_2.5 | 20.9% | under_2.5 | 79.1% |
btts
| yes | 28.6% | no | 71.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.4% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.0% | D/D | 16.2% | D/A | 11.0% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 3.6% | A/A | 9.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.4% | under_7.5 | 26.6% | over_8.5 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.9% | over_9.5 | 50.3% | under_9.5 | 49.7% |
| over_10.5 | 38.9% | under_10.5 | 61.1% | over_11.5 | 28.7% |
| under_11.5 | 71.3% | over_12.5 | 20.3% | under_12.5 | 79.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.8% | under_3.5 | 27.2% | over_4.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.5% | over_5.5 | 42.3% | under_5.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.5% | under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.4% | over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
most
| home | 52.6% | draw | 10.7% | away | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.6% | away_+3.5 | 77.4% | home_-1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.3% | home_-0.5 | 52.6% | away_+0.5 | 47.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.3% | away_-0.5 | 36.7% | home_+1.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.9% | home_+3.5 | 87.7% | away_-3.5 | 12.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.5% | under_22.5 | 43.5% | over_24.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.3% | over_26.5 | 31.9% | under_26.5 | 68.1% |
| over_28.5 | 21.9% | under_28.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.0% | under_10.5 | 32.0% | over_12.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.3% | over_14.5 | 34.3% | under_14.5 | 65.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.7% | under_10.5 | 49.3% | over_12.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.3% | over_14.5 | 18.9% | under_14.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 59.5% | draw | 6.2% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.9% | away_+4.5 | 66.1% | home_-2.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.5% | home_-0.5 | 59.5% | away_+0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 85.6% | away_-4.5 | 14.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.6% | under_6.5 | 37.4% | over_7.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.4% | over_8.5 | 37.2% | under_8.5 | 62.8% |
| over_9.5 | 26.6% | under_9.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.5% | under_3.5 | 39.5% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.3% | under_3.5 | 57.7% | over_4.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.2% | over_5.5 | 14.3% | under_5.5 | 85.7% |
most
| home | 56.2% | draw | 12.7% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.6% | away_+2.5 | 69.4% | home_-0.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.8% | home_+0.5 | 68.9% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.7% | away_-2.5 | 12.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.3% | under_2.5 | 26.7% | over_3.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.2% | over_4.5 | 33.4% | under_4.5 | 66.6% |
| over_5.5 | 18.6% | under_5.5 | 81.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.4% | under_1.5 | 47.6% | over_2.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.9% | under_1.5 | 39.2% | over_2.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.2% |
most
| home | 33.6% | draw | 21.1% | away | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.0% | away_+1.5 | 83.1% | home_-0.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.4% | home_+0.5 | 54.6% | away_-0.5 | 45.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.1% | away_-1.5 | 25.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.4% | under_20.5 | 32.6% | over_22.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.8% | over_24.5 | 37.1% | under_24.5 | 62.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 63.1% | under_9.5 | 36.9% | over_11.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.4% | over_13.5 | 22.0% | under_13.5 | 78.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.9% | under_9.5 | 25.1% | over_11.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.6% | over_13.5 | 33.9% | under_13.5 | 66.1% |
most
| home | 36.6% | draw | 7.6% | away | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.6% | away_+3.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.4% | home_+2.5 | 59.7% | away_-2.5 | 40.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.5% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.6% | no | 96.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Fleetwood Town predictions · Gillingham predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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