Super League Greece
Panetolikos vs 
Asteras Tripolis Correct Score
Result
Final score 3-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 3.0%.
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 14.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Panetolikos have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, Asteras Tripolis 1.6 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 37.4% for over 2.5 and 64.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 0-2 | 5.8% |
Score probability grid
| Panetolikos \ Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Panetolikos goals, columns = Asteras Tripolis. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
44.7%Both Teams to Score37.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 37.4% for three or more goals and 64.8% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Panetolikos favoured at 38.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Panetolikos 1 · 1 draws · Asteras Tripolis 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis finished 3-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.0%; it gave the actual 3-1 a 3.0% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.